Comparison of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) tuber size distribution fitting methods and evaluation of the relationship between soil properties and estimated distribution parameters

Accurate estimation of tuber size distribution (TSD) parameters in discretely categorized potato (Solanum tuberosum L) yield samples is desirable for estimating modal tuber sizes, which is fundamental to yield prediction. In the current work, systematic yield digs were conducted on five commercial fields (N = 119) to compare the Weibull, Gamma and Gaussian distribution functions for relative-likelihood-based goodness-of-fit to the observed discrete distributions. Parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for the three distributions but were also derived using the percentiles approach for the Weibull distribution to compare accuracy against the MLE approaches. The relationship between TSD and soil nutrient variability was examined using the best-fitting model's parameters. The percentiles approach had lower overall relative likelihood than the MLE approaches across five locations, but had consistently lower Root Mean Square Error in the marketable tuber size range. Negative relationships were observed between the percentile-based shape parameter and the concentrations of Phosphorus and Nitrogen, with significant (non-zero-overlapping 95% confidence interval) regression coefficients for P (−0.74 ± 0.33 for distribution of proportional tuber numbers and −1.3 ± 0.62 for tuber weights). Stem density was negatively associated with the scale and mode of tuber number (regression coefficients −0.98 ± 0.63 and −1.08 ± 0.78 respectively) and tuber weight (regression coefficients −0.99 ± 0.78 and −1.04 ± 0.69 respectively) distributions. Phosphorus is negatively related to the scale of the tuber-number-based distribution while positively associating with the tuber weight distribution. The results suggest that excess P application was associated with the increase in small tubers that did not contribute significant weight to the final yield.

Environmental Controls on the Climatological Scaling of Tornado Frequency with Intensity

The scaling of U.S. tornado frequency with enhanced Fujita (EF)-rated intensity is examined for the range EF1–EF3. Previous work has found that tornado frequency decreases exponentially with increasing EF rating and that many regions around the world show the same exponential rate of decrease despite having quite different overall tornado frequencies. This scaling is important because it relates the frequency of the most intense tornadoes to the overall tornado frequency. Here we find that U.S. tornado frequency decreases more sharply with increasing intensity during summer than during other times of the year. One implication of this finding is that, despite their rarity, when tornadoes do occur during the cool season, the relative likelihood of more intense tornadoes is higher than during summer. The environmental driver of this scaling variability is explored through new EF-dependent tornado environmental indices (TEI-EF) that are fitted to each EF class. We find that the sensitivity of TEI-EF to storm relative helicity (SRH) increases with increasing EF class. This increasing sensitivity to SRH means that TEI-EF predicts a slower decrease in frequency with increasing intensity for larger values of SRH (e.g., cool season) and a sharper decrease in tornado frequency in summer when wind shear plays a less dominant role. This explanation is also consistent with the fact that the fraction of supercell tornadoes is smaller during summer.

Non-parametric triaxial deprojection of elliptical galaxies

ABSTRACT We present a grid-based non-parametric approach to obtain a triaxial 3D luminosity density from its surface brightness distribution. Triaxial deprojection is highly degenerate and our approach illustrates the resulting difficulties. Fortunately, for massive elliptical galaxies, many deprojections for a particular line of sight (LOS) can be discarded, because their projection along other LOSs does not resemble elliptical galaxies. The near-elliptical isophotes of these objects imply near ellipsoidal intrinsic shapes. In fact, deprojection is unique for densities distributed on ellipsoidal shells. The constrained non-parametric deprojection method we present here relaxes this constraint and assumes that the contours of the luminosity density are boxy/discy ellipsoids with radially varying axis ratios. With this approach, we are able to reconstruct the intrinsic triaxial densities of our test models, including one drawn from an N-body simulation. The method also allows to compare the relative likelihood of deprojections at different viewing angles. We show that the viewing orientations of individual galaxies with nearly ellipsoidal isophotal shapes can be constrained from photometric data alone.

The application of airborne remote sensing during an On-Site Inspection

<p>The application of airborne remote sensing techniques permitted by the Comprehensive Nuclear‑Test‑Ban Treaty (magnetic and gamma survey as well as optical imaging including infrared measurements) is done through the prism of inspection team functionality – a logic which applies equally to air and ground-based techniques. Work undertaken over recent years through modelling and practical testing has aimed to better understand the ability of airborne remote sensing techniques to detect relevant observables under different conditions. This has led to the compilation of a concept of operations document that provides guidance on the application of inspection activities during an On-Site Inspection. As well as highlighting the relative merits of each technique, the document also addresses the relative likelihood a particular airborne technique will return relevant information and will avoid the commitment of resources to missions with little likelihood of success.</p><p>The paper also addresses the approaches which have been taken to streamline the acquisition of airborne remotely sensed data through bespoke installations, the identification of optimal data processing routines to facilitate the production of reports and the fusion of airborne data products with other data gathered during an inspection.</p>

Likelihood of Arrest for Robberies, Assaults, and Sexual Offenses Committed by Group and Lone Offenders

Many criminologists have considered the role of groups in the commission of crime to gain insight into offender decision-making. Additional research is needed, however, that examines the likelihood of arrest as a function of whether an offense is committed by a group of offenders (two or more offenders in a criminal incident) or a lone offender, as well as the number of offenders in the group. Using 3 years of data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System for robbery incidents, assault incidents, and sexual offenses, the study finds that the relative likelihood of arrest for group-offender incidents, compared with lone-offender incidents, varies by incident type. For robbery incidents, the likelihood of arrest increases when committed by a group of offenders. Yet, for assault incidents and sexual offenses, the likelihood of arrest decreases when committed by a group of offenders. Further analysis looks more closely at incidents committed by a group of offenders and how the number of offenders in the group affects the likelihood of arrest. A consistent finding is that for each incident type, the likelihood that all offenders in a group will be arrested is lower as the number of offenders increases, which may justify offenders’ perceptions of “safety in larger numbers.”

Interest Groups, Policy Responses to Global Shocks, and the Relative Likelihood of Currency Crashes Versus Banking Crises

Shocks to global interest rates or risk cause capital outflows for countries outside the core of the global financial system. These outflows lead to downward pressure on exchange rates and financial sector stress, in addition to having general contractionary effects. To defend the exchange rate, the appropriate internal response is a fiscal/monetary contraction. To maintain full employment and financial stability, the appropriate internal response is fiscal/monetary expansion. The contradiction in these policy responses implies policymakers prioritize hitting either internal or external targets after these shocks; but how do they decide? Using a fixed effects model and data from 100 emerging market and developing economies from 1990 to 2012, we show that the relative sensitivity of interest groups to these policy responses influences which response occurs. We find some evidence that this effect is stronger in the presence of more political-institutional constraints. Using a strategic probit model, we also find some evidence that this policy response influences the relative likelihood of banking crises versus currency crashes after these global shocks.

Minor Adverse Events

The incidence of sedation-related adverse events depends on the medications administered, the characteristics of the procedure, and preexisting patient factors. Minor adverse sedation-related events may present inconvenience or transient discomfort to the patient and, if recognized and supported in a timely manner by the sedationist, will not usually result in physiologic or psychological harm to the patient. Postprocedure vomiting, transient hypoxemia, mild hypotension, emergence reactions, and prolonged recovery times are examples of minor events. The relative likelihood of events of this type (1 of every 200 sedation episodes) provides significant impetus for effective preparation and training for sedationists to effectively respond to or preempt them. These “minor” events can still progress to more significant harm.