Analysing the cost-effectiveness of early action for food security through forecasting shortages in maize calories; a case study for Ethiopia 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amber Emeis ◽  
Gabriele Guimarães Nobre ◽  
Marc van den Homberg ◽  
Aklilu Teklesadik ◽  
Vicky Boult
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Cash Transfer ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Early Action ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Anticipatory Action

<p>The Ethiopian agricultural system is predominantly formed by smallholder and rainfed farmers. Their local food systems are greatly reliant on seasonal climate variability. Often, droughts and food insecurity are interlinked and can negatively impact local communities. In addition to climate variability, a number of socio-economic factors such as multiple harvest failures, distance to markets and pre-existing inequalities are well known to impact people’s access to safe, sufficient and affordable food. Anticipatory action to avoid a situation of food security crisis often requires the understanding of how many people can be potentially affected by a shock and how much financing should be invested. </p><p>This study aims to forecast shortages in maize calories, which is defined as the percentage of the population for which not sufficient maize calories are available. Forecast models were developed for agricultural and agro-pastoral livelihood zones in Ethiopia in connection to the unimodal and bimodal rain seasons by using the Fast-and-Frugal Trees Algorithm. To forecast shortage events, five variables were used ranging from socio-economic to physical drivers: 1) soil moisture (Tropical Applications of Meteorology using Satellite data and ground-based observations (TAMSAT)), 2) maize production from the previous season, 3) the Gini index, 4) the main livelihood mode and 5) the travel time to the closest market. The lead time of the model is increased using TAMSAT forecast data to create a wider window for action before harvesting. </p><p>The skill of the model with increased lead-time in relation to the cost of the humanitarian intervention was analysed to examine the cost-effectiveness of forecast-based action. Therefore, the cost of acting early (through a scheme of cash transfer) has been compared to ex-post interventions. To assess the cost-effectiveness of the cash transfer, the prices of a basket of goods before and after harvesting are included in the model with the assumption that prices of staple crops increase when there is scarcity (food insecurity). With these results, the study will explore the practicality of implementing the anticipatory action by looking at the implications of model uncertainty (False Alarms, ‘acting in vain’). Likewise, the possible opportunities and challenges in regards to operationalizing the model will be deliberated. Accordingly, this study hopes to contribute to the use of early warning early action systems by humanitarian agencies in reducing the impacts of natural hazards. </p>

Forecast based action: developing triggers for preventing food insecurity in Eastern Africa

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc van den Homberg ◽  
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre ◽  
Edward Bolton
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Choice Experiments ◽  
Cash Transfer ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Potential Cost ◽  
Design Elements ◽  
Early Action ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Transfer Mechanisms

<p>The project “Forecast based Financing for Food Security” (F4S) was initiated in July 2019 with the aim to provide a deeper understanding of how forecast information could be routinely used as a basis for financing early action for preventing food insecurity in pilot areas in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. The F4S project is linked to the existing Innovative Approaches in Response Preparedness Project and is in response to the growing interest and attention placed in recent years by academic institutions, development and humanitarian agencies on creating evidence that can leverage risk prevention and disaster risk reduction.</p><p>To ensure adequate forecast-based actions one needs to have the right information and evidence to guide fast decision-making. Key enabling aspects are an understanding of the impact of food insecurity, the resources needed to address it and an insight in the associated costs, beneficiaries’ preferences and lead times. In response to that, the F4S is currently:</p><ul><li>Developing an impact-based probabilistic food insecurity forecasting model using Machine Learning algorithms and datasets of food insecurity drivers;</li> <li>Collecting local evidence on food insecurity triggers and information on individual preferences on key design elements of cash transfer mechanisms through surveys and choice experiments;</li> <li>Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of different cash transfer mechanisms.</li> </ul><p>This PICO presentation seeks to share lessons learnt and preliminary results on the development of triggers for enabling early action against the first signs of food insecurity in Eastern Africa. It presents key results obtained through surveys and choice experiments regarding local knowledge in association with food insecurity and aid design. Furthermore, it presents the potential cost-effectiveness and advantages of acting based on forecasts.</p>

Forecast based Financing for Food Security : from early warning to early action in Eastern Africa

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre ◽  
Marthe Wens ◽  
Marc Van den Homberg
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Local Knowledge ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Cash Transfers ◽  
Cash Transfer ◽  
Transfer Programs ◽  
Vulnerable Communities ◽  
Early Action ◽  
Ex Ante

<p>The project “Forecast based Financing for Food Security” (F4S) aims to provide a deeper understanding of how key drivers of food insecurity can be forecasted early enough to enable the trigger of humanitarian action in pilot areas in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. In combination with the knowledge being produced about early warning and forecasting, F4S also wants to inform early action (e.g. ex-ante cash transfers) that can reduce the risk of food insecurity. F4S has been achieving this goal through three main pillars:  (i) modelling, (ii) local knowledge and (iii) cost-benefits analysis.</p><p>This PICO presentation shares the lessons learnt and results of the F4S project. Moreover, it  hopes to trigger the discussion on how the scientific community together with local stakeholders and communities can co-produce knowledge that is relevant to local action, focussing on three result areas.</p><ul><li>(i) The impact-based forecasting model to understand the key drivers of food insecurity in agricultural, agro-pastoral, and pastoral regions. Simple to more complex Machine Learning algorithms have been developed, applied and benchmarked. These algorithms were used to forecast, 6 to 1 months ahead, key indicators of food insecurity such as the shortage of calories and the transitions in IPC classes. Local knowledge was used to inform the selection of the predictors of the Machine Learning algorithm.</li> <li>(ii) The results of a household survey and individual choice experiments among 600 household members of vulnerable communities. The survey collected local knowledge on early warning (food insecurity triggers) and early actions traditionally taken to lessen food insecurity. The novel choice experiment consisted of giving potential beneficiaries of ex-ante cash transfers the choice between different timings and frequencies of cash transfers for different drought and food security scenarios. The results provided a better understanding of people’s willingness to invest in risk reduction actions and individual preferences on key design elements of cash transfer mechanisms.</li> <li>(iii) The evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of different cash transfer mechanisms that investigates how cash transfer programs can achieve a significant reduction in costs if cash is disbursed prior to the food insecurity occurrence.</li> </ul><p>This knowledge, as produced on the three areas above, is being currently used to improve the design of ex-ante cash programs. In addition to yielding significant cost savings, the project has found that cash transfer programs can be a more dignified solution when disbursed early enough. Cash transfer programs have the potential to increase the range of early action by beneficiaries that ultimately can reduce the risk of food insecurity and possibly malnutrion in vulnerable communities.</p>

scholarly journals Food insecurity, malnutrition and mortality in Maewo and Ambae islands, Vanuatu

2006 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 798-807 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre MN Renzaho
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Household Food Security ◽  
External Control ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Anthropometric Measures ◽  
Household Food ◽  
Ex Post

AbstractContextThis paper reports on findings from the ex-post evaluation of the Maewo Capacity Building project in Maewo Island, Vanuatu, which was funded by World Vision Australia.ObjectivesTo examine the extent to which the infrastructure and systems left behind by the project contributed to the improvement of household food security and health and nutritional outcomes in Maewo Island, using Ambae Island as a comparator.SettingTwo-stage cluster survey conducted from 6 to 20 July 2004, which included anthropometric measures and 4.5-year retrospective mortality data collection.ParticipantsA total of 406 households in Maewo comprising 1623 people and 411 households in Ambae comprising 1799 people.Main outcome measuresHousehold food insecurity, crude mortality rate (CMR), under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and malnutrition prevalence among children.ResultsThe prevalence of food insecurity without hunger was estimated at 15.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 12.1, 19.2%) in Maewo versus 38.2% (95% CI: 33.6, 43.0%) in Ambae, while food insecurity with hunger in children did not vary by location. After controlling for the child's age and gender, children in Maewo had higher weight-for-age and height-for-age Z-scores than children of the same age in Ambae. The CMR was lower in Maewo (CMR=0.47/10 000 per day, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.55) than in Ambae (CMR=0.59/10 000 per day, 95% CI: 0.51, 0.67) but no difference existed in U5MR. The major causes of death were similar in both locations, with frequently reported causes being malaria, acute respiratory infection and diarrhoeal disease.ConclusionsProject initiatives in Maewo Island have reduced the risks of mortality and malnutrition. Using a cross-sectional 'external control group' design, this paper demonstrates that it is possible to draw conclusions about project effectiveness where baseline data are incomplete or absent. Shifting from donor-driven evaluations to impact evaluations has greater learning value for the organisation, and greater value when reporting back to the beneficiaries about project impact and transformational development in their community. Public health nutritionists working in the field are well versed in the collection and interpretation of anthropometric data for evaluation of nutritional interventions such as emergency feeding programmes. These same skills can be used to conduct impact evaluations, even some time after project completion, and elucidate lessons to be learned and shared. These skills can also be applied more widely to projects which impact on the longer-term nutritional status of communities and their food security.

scholarly journals Comparison between Experience-Based and Household-Undernourishment Food Security Indicators: A Cautionary Tale

Nutrients ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3307
Author(s):  
Luis A. Sandoval ◽  
Carlos E. Carpio ◽  
Manuel Garcia
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Cash Transfer ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Food Security Status ◽  
Food Security Indicators ◽  
Security Indicators

Food security is a multi-dimensional concept that requires multiple indicators to measure it correctly; however, single food security indicators are often used individually or interchangeably. The misinterpretation of individual food security indicators can have important implications for policy design and implementation. The general objective of this paper is to show the discrepancies that may arise when using two different food security indicators that operate in the same dimension of the food security concept and yield the same outcome (food security status of the household) in three of the scenarios that they might be used: (1) for measuring the prevalence of food insecurity, (2) for understanding its drivers, and (3) for estimating the potential impact of a policy. The specific objectives of this paper are (1) to measure and compare the prevalence of food insecurity in a country using the Latin America Food Security Scale (ELCSA, by its acronym in Spanish) and the household undernourishment indicator, (2) to compare the factors associated with households’ food security status using the two indicators, and (3) to assess the potential use of the two indicators for ex ante policy analysis. Data for the study comes from the 2011 Survey of Living Standards from Guatemala, which collected all the data for estimating the ELCSA and the household level data required for calculating the household undernourishment indicator. Our results indicate considerable differences in the estimated prevalence of food insecurity at the national and regional levels using the two alternative indicators, with ELCSA resulting in higher estimates. Logistic regression models estimated to assess and identify household food insecurity drivers also found large differences in both the direction and magnitude of factors affecting food insecurity using the alternative food security indicators. Finally, the magnitude of the simulated impact of a cash transfer policy varied depending on the food indicator used.

scholarly journals Social and behavioral risk reduction strategies for tuberculosis prevention in Canadian Inuit communities: a cost-effectiveness analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aashna Uppal ◽  
Olivia Oxlade ◽  
Ntwali Placide Nsengiyumva ◽  
Dieynaba S. N’Diaye ◽  
Gonzalo G. Alvarez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Alcohol Use ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Tobacco Use ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Reduction Strategy ◽  
Excessive Alcohol ◽  
Potential Impact

Abstract Background Tuberculosis (TB) is an important public health problem in Inuit communities across Canada, with an annual incidence rate in 2017 that was nearly 300 times higher than in Canadian-born non-Indigenous individuals. Social and behavioral factors that are prevalent in the North, such as commercial tobacco use, excessive alcohol use, food insecurity and overcrowded housing put individuals at higher risk for TB morbidity and mortality. We examined the potential impact of mitigation strategies for these risk factors, in reducing TB burden in this setting. Methods We created a transmission model to simulate the epidemiology of TB in Nunavut, Canada. We then used a decision analysis model to assess the potential impact of several evidence-based strategies targeting tobacco use, excessive alcohol use, food insecurity and overcrowded housing. We predicted TB incidence, TB-related deaths, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and associated costs and cost-effectiveness over 20 years. All costs were expressed in 2018 Canadian dollars. Results Compared to a status quo scenario with no new interventions for these risk factors, the reduction strategy for tobacco use was most effective and cost-effective, reducing TB incidence by 5.5% (95% uncertainty range: 2.7–11%) over 20 years, with an estimated cost of $95,835 per TB case prevented and $49,671 per QALY gained. The addition of the food insecurity reduction strategy reduced incidence by a further 2% (0.5–3%) compared to the tobacco cessation strategy alone, but at significant cost. Conclusions Strategies that aim to reduce commercial tobacco use and improve food security will likely lead to modest reductions in TB morbidity and mortality. Although important for the communities, strategies that address excess alcohol use and overcrowding will likely have a more limited impact on TB-related outcomes at current scale, and are associated with much higher cost. Their benefits will be more substantial with scale up, which will also likely have important downstream impacts such as improved mental health, educational attainment and food security.

scholarly journals DAMPAK VARIABILITAS IKLIM DAN MEKANISME ADAPTIF MASYARAKAT PETANI DI KAWASAN BERIKLIM KERING (KASUS DESA BORONUBAEN DAN DESA TAUNBAEN TIMUR, KABUPATEN TIMOR TENGAH UTARA, NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR)

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eka Intan Kumala Putri ◽  
Nurmala K Pandjaitan
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Farming Community ◽  
Adaptation Mechanisms ◽  
Livelihood Systems ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Improve Food Security

<p>ABSTRACT<br />Climate variability led to a number of risks to the agricultural production process and the risk of shocks to the livelihood systems, which ultimately impat on the resilience of households farmer. The purpose of the research: (1) identify the impact of climate variability on regional farms and farmer households, 2) the ways to anticipate and type of adaptive response of households farmer as effort to survive, 3) the direction change of the socio-economic, institutional and socio-ecological that accompany the adaptation process at household and community farmerslevel, and 4) to formulate suggestionthe adaptation mechanisms of households farmerin response the climate variability, which impacts on food security temporarily. The results showed in 2015, 2nd study areas is long drought.The Changes in productivity of rice crops due to climate variability in the Taunbaen Timurvillagehigher than Boronubaenvillage. The condition is supported by calculations Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) showed household farmers in the Taunbaen Timur is more vulnerable than Boronubaen village household farmers. Food insecurity in the two villages is not only due to drought and pests, but also due to the high dependence on rice, making farming community poorer. To improve food security and resilience of householdfarmers income, need to increase public physical capital.<br />Keywords: climate variability, vulnerability, resilience, food insecurity, livelihood.</p><p>ABSTRAK<br />Variabilitas iklim menyebabkan sejumlah risiko terhadap proses produksi pertanian dan risiko guncangan pada sistem penghidupan, yangakhirnya berdampak pada resiliensi rumahtangga petani. Tujuan penelitian yaitu (1) mengidentifikasidampak variabilitas iklim pada kawasanusahatani dan rumahtangga petani, 2)cara-cara mengantisipasi dan tipe respons adaptif rumahtangga petani dalam upaya bertahan hidup, 3) arah perubahan sistem sosio-ekonomi, kelembagaan dan sosio-ekologi yang menyertai proses adaptasi di tingkat rumahtangga dan komunitas petani, dan 4) memformulasi usulan mekanisme adaptasi rumahtangga petani dalam merespon variabilitas iklim, yang berdampak terhadap ketahanan pangan temporer. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan pada tahun 2015, ke-2 desa penelitian, mengalami kekeringan yang cukup panjang. Perubahan produktivitas tanaman padi akibat variabilitas iklim di Desa Taunbaen Timur lebih tinggi daripada di Desa Boronubaen. Kondisi tersebut didukung oleh perhitungan Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) menunjukkan petani di Desa Taunbaen Timur lebih rentan dari pada petani Kelurahan Boronubaen terhadap variabilitas iklim. Kerawanan pangan di dua desa penelitian bukan hanya disebabkan oleh kekeringan dan hama penyakit, tetapi juga akibat ketergantungan beras yang tinggi, membuat komunitas petani semakin miskin.Untuk meningkatkan ketahanan pangan dan resiliensi nafkah rumahtangga petani, perlu peningkatan modal fisik yang bersifat publik.<br />Kata kunci: variabilitas iklim, kerentanan, resiliensi, kerawanan pangan, nafkah.</p>

scholarly journals Demographic and socioeconomic conditions associated with food insecurity in households in Campinas, SP, Brazil

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 845-857 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruna Fernanda do Nascimento Jacinto de SOUZA ◽  
Leticia MARIN-LEON ◽  
Daniele Flaviane Mendes CAMARGO ◽  
Ana Maria SEGALL-CORRÊA
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Household Head ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Cash Transfer ◽  
P Value ◽  
Socioeconomic Conditions ◽  
Cross Sectional

ABSTRACT Objective: To evaluate the association of food insecurity with demographic and socioeconomic conditions in households in Campinas, São Paulo state, Brazil. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study conducted on a representative sample of the urban population of the Southern, Southwestern, and Northwestern Health Districts of Campinas, between 2011-2012. Characteristics of the head of household, family history and household patterns were investigated. The dependent variable was food security condition, categorized as food security, mild food insecurity, and moderate/severe food insecurity. All independent variables with p-value <0.20 in the bivariate multinomial logistic regression were included in the final model of multiple multinomial logistic regression, adjusted to household head age; the remaining variables had p-value <0.05. Results: In the 691 households analyzed, there was 65% of food security, 27.9% of mild food insecurity, and 7.1% of moderate/severe food insecurity. The conditions associated with mild food insecurity were monthly per capita income less than the minimum wage, household head unemployed for more than six months between 2004-2010, living in properties given to the family/occupied/other, and density higher than two people per bedroon. The moderate/severe food insecurity was associated with informal employment condition of the household head and the presence of a beneficiary of the Bolsa Família (Family Allowance Program), a cash transfer-type program, in the household. The higher the score of the consumer goods, the lower the probability of mild food insecurity or moderate/severe food insecurity. There was a higher probability of mild food insecurity and moderate/severe food insecurity in unfinished masonry-built houses/other. Conclusion: More than one third of the households investigated experienced some form of food insecurity. Mild food insecurity was associated with demographic conditions, while moderate/severe food insecurity was associated with socioeconomic conditions, especially those related to the household head.

scholarly journals The relation of cash transfer programs and food insecurity among families with preschool children living in semiarid climates in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luciano Lima Correia ◽  
Hermano Alexandre Lima Rocha ◽  
Álvaro Jorge Madeiro Leite ◽  
Anamaria Cavalcante e Silva ◽  
Jocileide Sales Campos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Logistic Models ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
The State ◽  
Cash Transfer ◽  
Residential Setting ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Transfer Programs

Abstract Background Food insecurity has important effects on human health, particularly in children’s. It continues to increase, with an estimated prevalence of 14.9% in the USA and 35% in Brazil. There have been few studies on the effect of cash transfer programs (CTPs) on the prevalence of food security in Brazil. Objective Evaluate the association between cash transfer programs and reductions in inequity and food insecurity. Method Population-based cross-sectional study in the state of Ceará, Northeast Brazil, with a sample of 8.000 households. Ceará is one of the poorest states. The state population of 8.5 million inhabitants, social security benefits and government grants, “ Bolsa Família”, have become the most stable source of income. The main outcomes measures were food insecurity and CTP participation. Multivariate logistic models were constructed to assess the association between participation in CTPs and food security. Results Participation in CTPs was found to be independently related to the prevalence of food security (APR 2.29 95% CI 1.57-3.33), as are education level, residential setting, and children’s nutritional status. Conclusions CTPs and investment in education are initiatives that might be used to reduce food insecurity.

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