A Clustering Approach for Predicting Dune Morphodynamic Response to Storms Using Typological Coastal Profiles: A Case Study at the Dutch Coast

Dune erosion driven by extreme marine storms can damage local infrastructure or ecosystems and affect the long-term flood safety of the hinterland. These storms typically affect long stretches (∼100 km) of sandy coastlines with variable topo-bathymetries. The large spatial scale makes it computationally challenging for process-based morphological models to be used for predicting dune erosion in early warning systems or probabilistic assessments. To alleviate this, we take a first step to enable efficient estimation of dune erosion using the Dutch coast as a case study, due to the availability of a large topo-bathymetric dataset. Using clustering techniques, we reduce 1,430 elevation profiles in this dataset to a set of typological coastal profiles (TCPs), that can be employed to represent dune erosion dynamics along the whole coast. To do so, we use the topo-bathymetric profiles and historic offshore wave and water level conditions, along with simulations of dune erosion for a number of representative storms to characterize each profile. First, we identify the most important drivers of dune erosion variability at the Dutch coast, which are identified as the pre-storm beach geometry, nearshore slope, tidal level and profile orientation. Then using clustering methods, we produce various sets of TCPs, and we test how well they represent dune morphodynamics by cross-validation on the basis of a benchmark set of dune erosion simulations. We find good prediction skill (0.83) with 100 TCPs, representing a 93% input and associated computational costs reduction. These TCPs can be used in a probabilistic model forced with a range of offshore storm conditions, enabling national scale coastal risk assessments. Additionally, the presented techniques could be used in a global context, utilizing elevation data from diverse sandy coastlines to obtain a first order prediction of dune erosion around the world.

Sea level rise outpaced by vertical dune toe translation on prograding coasts

Sea level is rising due to climate change and is expected to influence the development and dynamics of coastal dunes. However, the anticipated changes to coastal dunes have not yet been demonstrated using field data. Here, we provide evidence of dune translation that is characterized by a linear increase of the dune toe elevation on the order of 13–15 mm/year during recent decades along the Dutch coast. This rate of increase is a remarkable 7–8 times greater than the measured sea level rise. The observed vertical dune toe translation coincides with seaward movement of the dune toe (i.e., progradation), which shows similarities to prograding coasts in the Holocene both along the Dutch coast and elsewhere. Thus, we suspect that other locations besides the Dutch coast might also show such large ratios between sea level rise and dune toe elevation increase. This phenomenon might significantly influence the expected impact of sea level rise and climate change adaptation measures.

North Sea Infragravity Wave Observations

Coastal safety assessments with wave-resolving storm impact models require a proper offshore description for the incoming infragravity (IG) waves. This boundary condition is generally obtained by assuming a local equilibrium between the directionally-spread incident sea-swell wave forcing and the bound IG waves. The contribution of the free incident IG waves is thus ignored. Here, in-situ observations of IG waves with wave periods between 100 s and 200 s at three measurement stations in the North Sea in water depths of O(30) m are analyzed to explore the potential contribution of the free and bound IG waves to the total IG wave height for the period from 2010 to 2018. The bound IG wave height is computed with the equilibrium theory of Hasselmann using the measured frequency-directional sea-swell spectra as input. The largest IG waves are observed in the open sea with a maximum significant IG wave height of O(0.3) m at 32 m water depth during storm Xaver (December 2013) with a concurrent significant sea-swell wave height in excess of 9 m. Along the northern part of the Dutch coast, this maximum has reduced to O(0.2) m at a water depth of 28 m with a significant sea-swell wave height of 7 m and to O(0.1) m at the most southern location at a water depth of 34 m with a significant sea-swell wave height of 5 m. These appreciable IG wave heights in O(30) m water depth represent a lower bound for the expected maximum IG wave heights given the fact that in the present analysis only a fraction of the full IG frequency range is considered. Comparisons with the predicted bound IG waves show that these can contribute substantially to the observed total IG wave height during storm conditions. The ratio between the predicted bound- and observed total IG variance ranges from 10% to 100% depending on the location of the observations and the timing during the storm. The ratio is typically high at the peak of the storm and is lower at both the onset and waning of the storm. There is significant spatial variability in this ratio between the stations. It is shown that differences in the directional spreading can play a significant role in this. Furthermore, the observed variability along the Dutch coast, with a substantially decreased contribution of the bound IG waves in the south compared to the northern part of the Dutch coast, are shown to be partly related to changes in the mean sea-swell wave period. For the southern part of the Dutch coast this corresponds to an increased difference with the typically assumed equilibrium boundary condition although it is not clear how much of the free IG-energy is onshore directed barring more sophisticated observations and/or modeling.

Detecting non-linear sea-level variations in tide gauge records: a study case along the Dutch coast.

<p>Tide gauges are the main source of information about sea-level changes in the Industrial Age. When looking at global mean values, century-long reconstructions produce rates between 1-2 mm/yr, while estimates over the last three decades reveal a much faster rise of about 3 mm/yr, as also indicated by satellite altimetry observations. In spite of this evidence for a recent acceleration, its quantification remains a challenging and relevant task, because results are highly dependent on the length of the record and on the reconstruction technique, whereas decision makers require clear proof to legitimise action.</p><p>While global mean results are very important to understand climate change, regional to local variations are more relevant for the purpose of planning mitigation and adaptation measures. However, mainly due to natural variability, looking at individual tide gauge stations hampers the accurate determination of linear and non-linear trends.</p><p>We analyse tide gauge records along the Dutch coast by means of advanced statistical techniques, with the main objective of determining whether and under which conditions it is possible to detect departures from secular trends. We particularly focus on how to handle noise in the natural system, which for the Dutch coast is mainly represented by local atmospheric effects and by variability in ocean dynamics in the NE Atlantic.</p>

Tidal plume fronts, internal waves and sediment resuspension in a near field river plume

<p>Internal waves are known to be an important source of mixing in the coastal ocean. Measurements from the Columbia River Plume were some of the first to demonstrate the generation of large amplitude internal waves released by a newly formed tidal plume front. Here we explore internal waves generated by multiple tidal plume fronts and their trapping in the mid-field plume of the Rhine river plume. The internal waves are released into a shallow frictional system, and their role on mixing, near shore sediment resuspension is examined. We use data collected off the Dutch coast near the Sand Engine, during the STRAINS field campaigns at a location 10 km north of the river mouth. An ADCP measured current velocity with a frequency of 1 Hz and a resolution of 0.25 m. Temperature, salinity, velocity, sediment concentration measurements, as well as turbulent stresses were measured at the 12 m site at 0.25, 0.5 and 0.75 m above the bed. The field-data and radar images show tidal plume fronts propagating towards the Dutch coast and the generation of high frequency internal waves ahead of the fronts. As the fronts propagate onshore they increase turbulence and mixing and can also increase sediment resuspension. Using an idealised non-hydrostatic model we show that the fronts can generate high frequency internal waves as they propagate towards the coast, and that these waves can break inshore. We introduce a frontal sediment pumping mechanism, and show how this is a new mechanism for sediment resuspension and offshore transport.</p>

Empathie of sensatiezucht?

Empathy or sensationalism? The shipping disaster of the ‘Berlin’ in 1907 and its aftermath In the early morning of February 21, 1907, during a fierce storm, the ferry ‘Berlin’ crashed on the pier of Hook van Holland. With 128 victims, it still is the largest maritime disaster off the Dutch coast in peacetime. Due to the enormous interest of the population, the media and the Dutch royal house, it became a major media disaster in Dutch history. How did that happen? The disaster occurred at a time when a new era was dawning by the dissemination of many new forms of media, such as film, photography and illustrated magazines. In addition, there was the special attention paid by Prince Hendrik, Queen Wilhelmina’s husband. His arrival in Hook van Holland was unprecedented, because he not only came to watch the rescue attempts, but also actively contributed to it. That made the disaster one with two faces; on the one hand, that of the lower class with the population of Hook of Holland and the brave saviors and, on the other hand, one of the upper class because of the attention paid to Prince Hendrik. All this ensured that the disaster was experienced intensely, more intensely than before.