Parameter uncertainty dominates C-cycle forecast errors over most of Brazil for the 21st century

Identification of terrestrial carbon (C) sources and sinks is critical for understanding the Earth system as well as mitigating and adapting to climate change resulting from greenhouse gas emissions. Predicting whether a given location will act as a C source or sink using terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs) is challenging due to net flux being the difference between far larger, spatially and temporally variable fluxes with large uncertainties. Uncertainty in projections of future dynamics, critical for policy evaluation, has been determined using multi-TEM intercomparisons, for various emissions scenarios. This approach quantifies structural and forcing errors. However, the role of parameter error within models has not been determined. TEMs typically have defined parameters for specific plant functional types generated from the literature. To ascertain the importance of parameter error in forecasts, we present a Bayesian analysis that uses data on historical and current C cycling for Brazil to parameterise five TEMs of varied complexity with a retrieval of model error covariance at 1∘ spatial resolution. After evaluation against data from 2001–2017, the parameterised models are simulated to 2100 under four climate change scenarios spanning the likely range of climate projections. Using multiple models, each with per pixel parameter ensembles, we partition forecast uncertainties. Parameter uncertainty dominates across most of Brazil when simulating future stock changes in biomass C and dead organic matter (DOM). Uncertainty of simulated biomass change is most strongly correlated with net primary productivity allocation to wood (NPPwood) and mean residence time of wood (MRTwood). Uncertainty of simulated DOM change is most strongly correlated with MRTsoil and NPPwood. Due to the coupling between these variables and C stock dynamics being bi-directional, we argue that using repeat estimates of woody biomass will provide a valuable constraint needed to refine predictions of the future carbon cycle. Finally, evaluation of our multi-model analysis shows that wood litter contributes substantially to fire emissions, necessitating a greater understanding of wood litter C cycling than is typically considered in large-scale TEMs.

Multisubstrate DNA stable isotope probing reveals guild structure of bacteria that mediate soil carbon cycling

Soil microorganisms determine the fate of soil organic matter (SOM), and their activities compose a major component of the global carbon (C) cycle. We employed a multisubstrate, DNA-stable isotope probing experiment to track bacterial assimilation of C derived from distinct sources that varied in bioavailability. This approach allowed us to measure microbial contributions to SOM processing by measuring the C assimilation dynamics of diverse microorganisms as they interacted within soil. We identified and tracked 1,286 bacterial taxa that assimilated 13C in an agricultural soil over a period of 48 d. Overall 13C-assimilation dynamics of bacterial taxa, defined by the source and timing of the 13C they assimilated, exhibited low phylogenetic conservation. We identified bacterial guilds composed of taxa that had similar 13C assimilation dynamics. We show that C-source bioavailability explained significant variation in both C mineralization dynamics and guild structure, and that the growth dynamics of bacterial guilds differed significantly in response to C addition. We also demonstrate that the guild structure explains significant variation in the biogeographical distribution of bacteria at continental and global scales. These results suggest that an understanding of in situ growth dynamics is essential for understanding microbial contributions to soil C cycling. We interpret these findings in the context of bacterial life history strategies and their relationship to terrestrial C cycling.

Heterotrophic soil respiration and carbon cycling in geochemically distinct African tropical forest soils

Heterotrophic soil respiration is an important component of the global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle, driven by environmental factors acting from local to continental scales. For tropical Africa, these factors and their interactions remain largely unknown. Here, using samples collected along topographic and geochemical gradients in the East African Rift Valley, we study how soil chemistry and fertility drive soil respiration of soils developed from different parent materials even after many millennia of weathering. To address the drivers of soil respiration, we incubated soils from three regions with contrasting geochemistry (mafic, felsic and mixed sediment) sampled along slope gradients. For three soil depths, we measured the potential maximum heterotrophic respiration under stable environmental conditions and the radiocarbon content (Δ14C) of the bulk soil and respired CO2. Our study shows that soil fertility conditions are the main determinant of C stability in tropical forest soils. We found that soil microorganisms were able to mineralize soil C from a variety of sources and with variable C quality under laboratory conditions representative of tropical topsoil. However, in the presence of organic carbon sources of poor quality or the presence of strong mineral-related C stabilization, microorganisms tend to discriminate against these energy sources in favour of more accessible forms of soil organic matter, resulting in a slower rate of C cycling. Furthermore, despite similarities in climate and vegetation, soil respiration showed distinct patterns with soil depth and parent material geochemistry. The topographic origin of our samples was not a main determinant of the observed respiration rates and Δ14C. In situ, however, soil hydrological conditions likely influence soil C stability by inhibiting decomposition in valley subsoils. Our results demonstrate that, even in deeply weathered tropical soils, parent material has a long-lasting effect on soil chemistry that can influence and control microbial activity, the size of subsoil C stocks and the turnover of C in soil. Soil parent material and its control on soil chemistry need to be taken into account to understand and predict C stabilization and rates of C cycling in tropical forest soils.

Carbon emissions from a temperate coastal peatland wildfire: contributions from natural plant communities and organic soils

Background One of the scientific challenges of understanding climate change has been determining the important drivers and metrics of global carbon (C) emissions and C cycling in tropical, subtropical, boreal, subarctic, and temperate peatlands. Peatlands account for 3% of global land cover, yet contain a major reservoir of 550 gigatons (Gt) of soil C, and serve as C sinks for 0.37 Gt of carbon dioxide (CO2) a year. In the United States, temperate peatlands are estimated to store 455 petagrams of C (PgC). There has been increasing interest in the role of wildfires in C cycling and altering peatlands from C sinks to major C sources. We estimated above- and below-ground C emissions from the Pains Bay Fire, a long-duration wildfire (112 days; 18,329 ha) that burned a coastal peatland in eastern North Carolina, USA. Results Soil C emissions were estimated from pre- and post-burn Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) soil elevation data, soils series and C content mapping, remotely sensed soil burn severity, and post-burn field surveys of soil elevation. Total above-ground C emissions from the fire were 2,89,579 t C and 214 t C ha−1 for the 10 vegetation associations within the burn area perimeter. Above-ground sources of C emissions were comprised of litter (69,656 t C), shrub (1,68,983 t C), and foliage (50,940 t C). Total mean below-ground C emissions were 5,237,521 t C, and ranged from 2,630,529 to 8,287,900 t C, depending on organic matter content of different soil horizons within each of the 7 soil series. The mean below-ground C emissions within the burn area were 1,595.6 t C ha−1 and ranged from 629.3 to 2511.3 t C ha−1. Conclusions In contrast to undisturbed temperate peatlands, human induced disturbances of the natural elevation gradient of the peatland has resulted in increased heterogeneity of floristic variation and assemblages that are a product of the spatial and temporal patterns of the water table level and the surface wetness across peatlands. Human induced changes in surface hydrology and land use influenced the fuel characteristics of natural vegetation and associated soils, thus influencing wildfire risk, behavior, and the resulting C emissions.

Phosphorus availability and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi limit soil C cycling and influence plant responses to elevated CO2 conditions.

Enhanced soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition and organic phosphorus (P) cycling may help sustain plant productivity under elevated CO2 (eCO2) and P-limiting conditions. P-acquisition by arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and their impacts on SOM decomposition may become even more relevant in these conditions. Yet, experimental evidence of the interactive effect of AM fungi and P availability influencing altered SOM cycling under eCO2 is scarce and the mechanisms of this control are poorly understood. Here, we performed a pot experiment manipulating P availability, AM fungal presence and atmospheric CO2 levels and assessed their impacts on soil C cycling and plant growth. Plants were grown in chambers with a continuous 13C-input that allowed differentiation between plant- and SOM-derived fractions of respired CO2 (R), dissolved organic C (DOC) and microbial biomass (MBC) as relevant C pools in the soil C cycle. We hypothesised that under low P availability, increases in SOM cycling may support sustained plant growth under eCO2 and that AM fungi would intensify this effect. We found the impacts of CO2 enrichment and P availability on soil C cycling were generally independent of each other with higher root biomass and slight increases in soil C cycling under eCO2 occurring regardless of the P treatment. Contrary to our hypotheses, soil C cycling was enhanced with P addition suggesting that low P conditions were limiting soil C cycling. eCO2 conditions increased the fraction of SOM-derived DOC pointing to increased SOM decomposition with eCO2. Finally, AM fungi increased microbial biomass under eCO2 conditions and low-P without enhanced soil C cycling, probably due to competitive interactions with free-living microorganisms over nutrients. Our findings in this plant-soil system suggest that, contrary to what has been reported for N-limited systems, the impacts of eCO2 and P availability on soil C cycling are independent of each other.

Carbon Emissions from A Temperate Coastal Peatland Wildfire: Contributions from Natural Plant Communities and Organic Soils

Background: One of the scientific challenges of understanding climate change has been determining the important drivers and metrics ofglobal carbon (C) emissions and C cycling in tropical, subtropical, boreal, subarctic, and temperate peatlands. Peatlands account for 3% of global land cover, yet contain a major reservoir of 550 gigatons (Gt) of soil C, and serve as C sinks for 0.37 Gt of carbon dioxide (CO2) a year. In the United States, temperate peatlands areestimated to store 455 petagrams of C (PgC).There has been increasing interest in the role of wildfires in C cycling and altering peatlands from C sinks to major C sources. We estimated above- andbelow-ground C emissions from the Pains Bay Fire, a long-duration wildfire (112 days; 18,329 ha)that burned a coastal peatlandin eastern North Carolina, USA. Results: Soil C emissions were estimated from pre- and post-burn Light Detectionand Ranging (LIDAR) soil elevation data,soils series and C content mapping, remotely sensed soilburn severity, and post-burn field surveys of soil elevation.Total above-ground C emissions from the fire were 289,579 tC and 214 t C ha-1for the 10 vegetation communitieswithin the burn area perimeter. Above-ground sources of C emissions were comprised of litter (69,656 t C), shrub (168,983 t C), and foliage (50,940 t C).Total mean below-ground C emissions were 5,237,521 t C, and ranged from 2,630,529 – 8,287,900 t C,depending on organic matter content of different soil horizonswithin each of the 7 soil series. The mean below-ground C emissions within the burn area were 1,595.6 t C ha-1 and rangedfrom 629.3 – 2,511.3 t C ha-1.Conclusions: In contrast to undisturbed temperate peatlands, human induced disturbances of thenatural elevation gradient of the peatland has resulted in increased heterogeneity of floristic variation and assemblages that are a product of the spatial and temporal patterns of the water table level and the surface wetness across peatlands. Human induced changes in surface hydrology and land use influenced the fuel characteristics of natural vegetation and associated soils, thus influencing wildfire risk, behavior, and the resulting C emissions.

Reduced microbial stability in the active layer is associated with carbon loss under alpine permafrost degradation

Permafrost degradation may induce soil carbon (C) loss, critical for global C cycling, and be mediated by microbes. Despite larger C stored within the active layer of permafrost regions, which are more affected by warming, and the critical roles of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in C cycling, most previous studies focused on the permafrost layer and in high-latitude areas. We demonstrate in situ that permafrost degradation alters the diversity and potentially decreases the stability of active layer microbial communities. These changes are associated with soil C loss and potentially a positive C feedback. This study provides insights into microbial-mediated mechanisms responsible for C loss within the active layer in degraded permafrost, aiding in the modeling of C emission under future scenarios.