Freshwater transport from warm to cold ocean regions amplifying faster than all model estimates

Warming-induced global water cycle changes pose a significant challenge to global ecosystems and human society. The magnitude of historical water cycle change is uncertain due to a dearth of direct rainfall and evaporation observations, particularly over the ocean where 80% of global evaporation occurs. Air-sea fluxes of freshwater and river run-off imprint on ocean salinity at different temperatures, such that warmer regions tend to be saltier and cooler regions tend to be fresher. In this work, we track observed salinity trends in the warm, salty fraction of the ocean from 1970 to 2014, and infer the global poleward transport of freshwater over this period. Since 1970, 46 - 77 x10^12 m^3 of freshwater has been transported poleward from the warmest fraction of the ocean. No model in the current generation of climate models (the 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project; CMIP6) replicates this transport, with the closest model underestimating transport by 2 - 4 times. We trace the climate model biases to a weaker than expected surface freshwater flux intensification, just 0 - 4% in CMIP6 models compared to an estimated 3 - 7.5% in observations.

Ensemble forecasting greatly expands the prediction horizon for ocean mesoscale variability

Mesoscale eddies dominate energetics of the ocean, modify mass, heat and freshwater transport and primary production in the upper ocean. However, the forecast skill horizon for ocean mesoscales in current operational models is shorter than 10 days: eddy-resolving ocean models, with horizontal resolution finer than 10 km in mid-latitudes, represent mesoscale dynamics, but mesoscale initial conditions are hard to constrain with available observations. Here we analyze a suite of ocean model simulations at high (1/25°) and lower (1/12.5°) resolution and compare with an ensemble of lower-resolution simulations. We show that the ensemble forecast significantly extends the predictability of the ocean mesoscales to between 20 and 40 days. We find that the lack of predictive skill in data assimilative deterministic ocean models is due to high uncertainty in the initial location and forecast of mesoscale features. Ensemble simulations account for this uncertainty and filter-out unconstrained scales. We suggest that advancements in ensemble analysis and forecasting should complement the current focus on high-resolution modeling of the ocean.

AMOC stability and diverging response to Arctic sea ice decline in two climate models

This study compares the impacts of Arctic sea ice decline on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in two configurations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with different horizontal resolution. In a suite of model experiments we impose radiative imbalance at the ice surface, replicating a loss of sea ice cover comparable to the observed during 1979-2014, and find dramatic differences in the AMOC response between the two models. In the lower-resolution configuration, the AMOC weakens by about one third over the first 100 years, approaching a new quasi-equilibrium. By contrast, in the higher-resolution configuration, the AMOC weakens by ~10% during the first 20-30 years followed by a full recovery driven by invigorated deep water formation in the Labrador Sea and adjacent regions. We investigate these differences using a diagnostic AMOC stability indicator, which reflects the AMOC freshwater transport in and out of the basin and hence the strength of the basin-scale salt-advection feedback. This indicator suggests that the AMOC in the lower-resolution model is less stable and more sensitive to surface perturbations, as confirmed by hosing experiments mimicking Arctic freshening due to sea ice decline. Differences between the models’ mean states, including the Atlantic mean surface freshwater fluxes, control the differences in AMOC stability. Our results demonstrate that the AMOC stability indicator is indeed useful for evaluating AMOC sensitivity to perturbations. Finally, we emphasize that, despite the differences in the long-term adjustment, both models simulate a multi-decadal AMOC weakening caused by Arctic sea ice decline, relevant to climate change.

GRACE-Derived Time Lag of Mekong Estuarine Freshwater Transport in the Western South China Sea Validated by Isotopic Tracer Age

Estuarine freshwater transport has a substantial impact on the near-shore ecosystem and coastal ocean environment away from the estuary. This paper introduces two independent methods to track the Mekong freshwater-induced mass transport by calculating the time lag (or equivalently, the phase) between in situ Mekong basin runoff and the equivalent water height (EWH) time series over the western South China Sea from a gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE). The first method is the harmonic analysis that determines the phase difference between annual components of the two time series (called the P-method), and the other is the cross-correlation analysis that directly obtains the time lag by shifting the lagged time series forward to attain the highest cross-correlation between the two time series (called the C-method). Using a three-year rolling window, the time lag variations in three versions of GRACE between 2005 and 2012 are computed for demonstrating the consistency of the results. We found that the time lag derived from the P-method is, on average, slightly larger and more variable than that from the C-method. A comparison of our gridded time lag against the age determined via radium isotopes in September, 2007 by Chen et al. (2010) revealed that our gridded time lag results were in good agreement with most isotope-derived ages, with the largest difference less than 6 days. Among the three versions of the GRACE time series, CSR Release 05 performed the best. The lowest standard deviation of time lag was ~1.6 days, calculated by the C-method, whereas the mean difference for all the time lags from the isotope-derived ages is ~1 day by P-method. This study demonstrates the potential of monitoring Mekong estuarine freshwater transport over the western South China Sea by GRACE.

Historical changes in fresh water transport from sub-tropical to sub-polar oceans

<p>Warming-induced global water cycle changes pose a significant threat to biodiversity and humanity.  The atmosphere transports freshwater from the sub-tropical ocean to the tropics and poles in two distinct branches. The resulting air-sea fluxes of fresh water and river run-off imprint on ocean salinity (S) at different temperatures (T), creating a characteristic `T-S curve' of mean salinity as a function of temperature. Using a novel tracer-percentile framework, we quantify changes in the observed T-S curve from 1970 to 2014.  The warming ocean has been characterised by freshening tropical and sub-polar oceans and salinifying sub-tropical oceans. Over the 44 year period investigated, a net poleward freshwater transport out of the sub-tropical ocean is quantified, implying an amplification of the net poleward atmospheric freshwater transport. Historical reconstructions from the 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) exhibit a different response, underestimating the peak salinification of the ocean by a factor of 4, and showing a weak freshwater transport <em>into</em> the sub-polar ocean. Results indicate this discrepancy between the observations and models may be attributed to consistently biased representations of evaporation and precipitation patterns, which lead to the the weaker amplification seen in CMIP6 models.</p>

Towards more physically constrained freshwater injection via eddy permitting simulations of the last glacial cycle

<p>Freshwater, in the form of glacial runoff, is hypothesized to play a critical role in centennial to millennial scale climate variability, eg. the Younger Dryas and Dansgaard Oeschger events. Freshwater injection, or hosing, model experiments demonstrate that freshwater has the capability to generate abrupt climate transitions.  However, in an attempt to mitigate the inability of most models to resolve the smaller-scale features relevant to freshwater transport (such as boundary currents and mesoscale eddies), these hosing experiments commonly apply the entirety of the freshwater directly to the regions of deepwater formation (DWF). Our results indicate that this can inflate the freshwater signal in those regions by as much as four times. We propose a novel method of freshwater injection for such low-resolution models that spatially distributes the freshwater in accord with the results of eddy-permitting modelling. Furthermore, this “freshwater fingerprint” method not only impacts the timing of simulated climate transitions but also can allow us to evaluate how much we are overestimating the effects of freshwater when injected directly into sites of DWF.</p><p> </p><p>The freshwater fingerprints we develop are based on a suite of freshwater injection experiments performed using an eddy permitting Younger Dryas configuration of the MITGCM. Freshwater injection locations include the Mackenzie River, Gulf of St. Lawrence, Gulf of Mexico and a location off the coast of Norway, with flux amounts bounded by glacial reconstructions. These simulations indicate that freshwater from the Mackenzie River and Fennoscandia have the largest impact on salinity in most of the conventional sites of DWF (GIN and Labrador Seas, and in these simulations, predominantly the northern North Atlantic due to extensive sea ice), while freshwater from the Gulf of St. Lawrence is effective at freshening only the northern North Atlantic. The Gulf of Mexico has little impact on any DWF region we consider, mostly because the lower but continual flux in our simulations does not allow freshwater to penetrate northward past the Gulf Stream. The dilution of the freshwater signal as it is transported from the site of injection to the DWF zones leads to a reduction in the effective freshwater forcing, making hosing directly over DWF zones even with realistic freshwater amounts unrealistic. Thus, we construct freshwater fingerprints from these simulations by extracting the freshwater anomaly spatial pattern averaged over the last 5 simulation years, vertically integrating the field and normalizing it.</p><p><br>The freshwater fingerprint is then implemented in the COSMOS Earth Systems Model, which is run at resolutions typical for paleoclimate simulations (non-eddy permitting). Initial results show that freshwater from the Mackenzie River using our  fingerprint method leads to a more gradual cooling than if the meltwater is released directly over the hosing region (50-70N). We conclude that hosing over DWF zones, even with realistic freshwater amounts, produces an unrealistically large climate response. Additional results for the remaining injection locations and with the fingerprint implemented in a simpler climate model will be presented.</p>

Meridional overturning circulation at 30ºS in the Pacific Ocean: 1992, 2003, 2009 and 2017.

<div> <p><span>The meridional circulation and transports at 32<sup>o</sup>S in the Pacific Ocean in 1992 and 2017 are compared with analogous data from 2003 and 2009. The hydrographic data comes from the GO-SHIP database and an inverse box model has been applied with several constraints. In 1992, 2003 and 2017 the pattern of the overturning streamfunction is similar, but in 2009 the pattern of the circulation changes in the whole water column. The horizontal distribution of mass transports at all depths in 1992 and in 2017 changes notably from the “bowed gyre” found in 2009 and resembles that regular shape of 2003. The hydrographic data have also been compared with analogous data obtained from the numerical modelling output of GFDL, ECCO, and SOSE. Results show that the numerical modelling output in the upper layers (</span>γ<sup><span>n</span></sup><span><27.58 kg/m</span><span>3</span><span>) have a roughly similar pattern as hydrographic data. This is not the case, however, for deep and bottom layers (</span>γ<sup><span>n</span></sup><span>>27.58 kg/m</span><span>3</span><span>), where noticeable differences are found. Furthermore, the temperature transport in 2009 </span><span>(0.16 </span><span>± 0.12 PW</span><span>)</span><span> is significantly lower than in 1992 </span><span>(0.42 </span><span>± 0.12 PW</span><span>), </span><span>2003 </span><span>(0.38 </span><span>± 0.12 PW</span><span>) and </span><span>2017 </span><span>(0.42 </span><span>± 0.12 PW</span><span>). In addition, </span><span>the </span><span>freshwater transport result in 2009 (0.50 </span><span>± 0.03 Sv</span><span>) is significantly higher than in 1992 (0.26 </span><span>± 0.08 Sv</span><span>), 2003 (0.25 </span><span>± 0.02 Sv</span><span>) and 2017 (0.34 </span><span>± 0.08 Sv</span><span>). Westward Rossby waves are presumably the dynamical forcing that changes the circulation pattern in 2009. </span></p> </div>