Climate change increases North Korea’s hunger: implications for social resilience

Adaption based on social resilience is proposed as effective measures to mitigate hunger and avoid disaster caused by climate change. But these have not been investigated comprehensively in climate-sensitive regions especially necessary-quantitative paths. North Korea (NK, undeveloped) and its neighbors (SK, South Korea, developed; China, developing) represent three economic levels that provide us with examples of how to examine climatic risk and quantify the contribution of social resilience to rice production. Our data-driven estimates show that climatic factors determined rice biomass changes in NK, while non-climatic factors dominated biomass changes in NK’s neighbors. If no action is taken, NK will face a higher climatic risk (with continuous high temperature heatwaves and precipitation extremes) by the 2080s with high emission scenario when rice biomass and production are expected to decrease by 20.2% and 14.4%, respectively, thereby potentially increasing hunger in NK. The contribution of social resilience to food production in the undeveloped region (15.2%) was far below the contribution observed in the developed and developing regions (83.0% and 86.1%, respectively). These findings highlight the importance of social resilience to mitigate the negative effects of climate change on food security and human hunger, and provide necessary-quantitative information.

Agricultural information sharing for climatic risk adaptation by smallholder livestock farmers in Eastern Amhara Region, Ethiopia

This study aims at appraising the needed agricultural information, sources and the pathways that livestock farmers used for climatic risk adaptation in Eastern Amhara Region and also, determining factors that influenced farmer’s decision in selecting information pathways. Cross-section survey research design was used for the study. Sample was selected using multistage sampling design. From three agroecological zones, three districts and nine PAs were covered by the study. In the household survey, 317 livestock farmers were interviewed for quantitate data collection. Furthermore, FGD and Key Informant interviews were conducted to supplement survey’s result. Data were analysed using STATA (version 14) software. Descriptive and inferential statistical analysis were deployed. The study revealed that livestock farmers needed different agricultural information to adapt climatic risks. The prominent information was relating to feed quality improvement, feed preservation, animal health management and soil and water conservations. Most farmers obtained the information from relatives, extension workers and fellow farmers. Informal discussion, farm-visit, training and village-meetings were the pathways that livestock farmers used to acquire agricultural information. The decision of a farmer in selecting information pathways was determined by different factors, but they differ from pathway to pathways. For example, radio selection was influenced by livestock size the farmer owned and extension access, while train was influenced by membership of farmer groups and credit access. In conclusion, livestock farmers need a diverse agricultural information to adapt climatic risks. They acquire the information from their intimate sources through affordable information pathways. To be effective in climatic risk adaptation, information provision should be need based, delivered through multisource and pathways. Besides, the existing conventional information pathways should also be supported by ICT resources and demonstration. Considering the determinate factors of information pathway selection is very crucial in designing information diffusion strategy.

Dehydration Alters Behavioral Thermoregulation and the Geography of Climatic Vulnerability in Amazonian Lizards

Since high temperatures and low water availability often strike organisms in parallel, observing how they behaviorally thermohydroregulate may help us to better understand their climatic vulnerability. This understanding is especially important for tropical lizards, purportedly under greater climatic risk. We observed the influence of hydration level on the Voluntary Thermal Maximum (VTM) of two small amazonian lizard species: Loxopholis ferreirai (semiaquatic and scansorial) and Loxopholis percarinatum (leaf litter parthenogenetic dweller), accounting for several sources of variation (turn, body weight, start temperature and heating rate). Then, we used two modelling approaches (simple mapping of thermal margins and NicheMapR), to examine the effects of dehydration, decrease in rainfall, ability to burrow, and tree cover availability, on the geography of climatic vulnerability. Dehydration decreased the VTM in both species, which also reacted to start temperature and heating rates. Our two modelling approaches show that dehydration, changes the intensity, extent and duration of thermal risk across the Amazon basin. Based on our results and previous studies, we identify new evidence needed to better understand thermohydroregulation and model the geography of climatic risk, more realistically.

SMALLHOLDER FARMERS’ RESOURCE ALLOCATION DECISIONS IN A MAIZE-FARMING SYSTEM UNDER CLIMATE RISKS IN MALAWI

Using household data from Lilongwe districts, along with crop phenology, agronomic management and climatic data from Chitedze Research Station, the Target-MOTAD and DSSAT-CSM models examined the resource allocation decisions of smallholder farmers in maize farming systems under climate risk in Malawi. Specific aims were to evaluate the ability of DSSAT to predict and collate DTM and non-DTM yields under climatic risk and to use a bio-economic procedure developed using DSSAT and Target-MOTAD to explore the impact of climatic risk on allocation of resources to DTM and non-DTM production. The paper argues that higher average yields observed from DTM varieties make it the most optimal maize production plan, in maximizing household incomes, food security, and minimizing deviations from the mean while meeting the set target incomes of farmers compared to non-DTM varieties. The multidisciplinary nature of this paper has contributed to the body of research by providing a powerful analytical procedure of modelling farmers’ resource allocation decisions in maize based farming systems in Malawi. This study necessitates the use of a combination of biophysical and economic procedures when evaluating promising lines prior to variety release in order to identify the high yielding variety that will continuously bring sustained profits to the farmers amidst climate change.

Climate Risk, Cooperation, and the Co-Evolution of Culture and Institutions*

This paper examines the relationship between economic risk and the evolution of social cooperation. We hypothesize that trust developed in pre-industrial times as a result of experiences of cooperation aimed at coping with climatic risk. We document that European regions with higher pre-industrial climatic variability display higher levels of trust today. This effect is driven by variability in the growing season months and is more pronounced in agricultural regions. Regarding possible mechanisms, our results indicate that climatic risk favored inter-community exchange and the early adoption of inclusive political institutions which is associated with higher quality of local governments today.

Agroclimatic Risk Zoning of Papaya (Carica papaya L.) in the Hydrographic Basin of Paraná River III, Brazil

Brazil is the largest producer and consumer of papaya (Carica papaya L.) in the world. Despite modern technological and scientific advances, climate is still the most important meteorological variable in agricultural production. In this context, agroclimatic risk zoning should be one of the first things to be considered when planning cultivation. The purpose of this study was to carry out climatic risk zoning for papaya cultivation in the Basin of Paraná River III, Paraná state, Brazil. Were used meteorological data from 1976 to 2018, collected from 43 stations. The climatic risk analysis was based on the precipitation, water balance, average annual temperature, average insolation, and frost tolerance required for papaya cultivation. The occurrence of frosts is the key limiting factor for production in the study area. This meteorological factor limits the viability of papaya cultivation in the Center-Eastregion of the Basin. In other areas, risk remains, however, the papaya is apt for cultivation.