Cross Validation of GOES-16 and NOAA Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) QPE over the Continental United States

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R) series provides new opportunities for continuous observation of precipitation at large scales with a high resolution. An operational quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) product has been produced based on multi-channel measurements from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) aboard the GOES-16 (formerly known as GOES-R). This paper presents a comprehensive evaluation of this GOES-16 QPE product against a ground reference QPE product from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system over the continental United States (CONUS) during the warm seasons of 2018 and 2019. For the first time, the accuracy of GOES-16 QPE product was quantified using the gauge-corrected MRMS (GC-MRMS) QPE product, and a number of evaluation metrics were applied to adequately resolve the associated errors. The results indicated that precipitation occurrence and intensity estimated by the GOES-16 QPE agreed with GC-MRMS fairly well over the eastern United States (e.g., the probability of detection was close to 1.0, and the Pearson’s correlation coefficient was 0.80 during September 2019), while the discrepancies were noticeable over the western United States (e.g., the Pearson’s correlation coefficient was 0.64 for the same month). The performance of GOES-16 QPE was downgraded over the western United States, in part due to the limitations of the GOES-16 rainfall retrieval algorithm over complex terrains, and in part because of the poor radar coverage analyzed by the MRMS system. In addition, it was found that the GOES-16 QPE product significantly overestimated rainfall induced by the mesoscale convective systems in the midwestern United States, which must be addressed in the future development of GOES satellite rainfall retrieval algorithms.

Estimating Rainfall with Multi-resource Data over East Asia Based on Machine Learning

The lack of accurate estimation of intense precipitation is a universal limitation in precipitation retrieval. Therefore, a new rainfall retrieval technique based on the Random Forest (RF) algorithm is presented using the Advanced Himawari Imager-8 (Himawari-8/AHI) infrared spectrum data and the NCEP operational Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast information. And the gauge-calibrated rainfall estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) product served as the ground truth to train the model. The two-step RF classification model was established for (1) rain area delineation and (2) precipitation grades’ estimation to improve the accuracy of moderate rain and heavy rain. In view of the imbalance categories’ distribution in the datasets, the resampling technique including the Random Under-sampling algorithm and Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) was implemented throughout the whole training process to fully learn the characteristics among the samples. Among the features used, the contributions of meteorological variables to the trained models were generally greater than those of infrared information; in particular, the contribution of precipitable water was the largest, indicating the sufficient necessity of water vapor conditions in rainfall forecasting. The simulation results by the RF model were compared with the GPM product pixel-by-pixel. To prove the universality of the model, we used independent validation sets which are not used for training and two independent testing sets with different periods from the training set. In addition, the algorithm was validated against independent rain gauge data and compared with GFS model rainfall. Consequently, the RF model identified rainfall areas with a Probability Of Detection (POD) of around 0.77 and a False-Alarm Ratio (FAR) of around 0.23 for validation, as well as a POD of 0.60–0.70 and a FAR of around 0.30 for testing. To estimate precipitation grades, the value of classification was 0.70 in validation and in testing the accuracy was 0.60 despite a certain overestimation. In summary, the performance on the validation and test data indicated the great adaptability and superiority of the RF algorithm in rainfall retrieval in East Asia. To a certain extent, our study provides a meaningful range division and powerful guidance for quantitative precipitation estimation.

Assessing the benefits of specific attenuation for quantitative precipitation estimation with a C-band radar network

Recent advances demonstrate the benefits of radar-derived specific attenuation at horizontal polarization (AH) for quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) at S and X band. To date the methodology has, however, not been adapted for the widespread European C-band radars such as installed in the network of the German Meteorological Service (DWD, Deutscher Wetterdienst). Simulations based on a large dataset of drop size distributions (DSDs) measured over Germany are performed to investigate the DSD dependencies of the attenuation parameter αH for the AH estimates. The normalized raindrop concentration (Nw) and the change of differential reflectivity (ZDR) with reflectivity at horizontal polarization (ZH) are used to categorize radar observations into regimes for which scan-wise optimized αH values are derived. For heavier continental rain with ZH > 40 dBZ, the AH-based rainfall retrieval R(AH) is combined with a rainfall estimator using a substitute of specific differential phase (). We also assess the performance of retrievals based on specific attenuation at vertical polarization (AV). Finally, the regime-adapted hybrid QPE algorithms are applied to four convective cases and one stratiform case from 2017 to 2019, and compared to DWD’s operational RAdar-OnLine-ANeichung (RADOLAN) RW rainfall product, which is based on Zh only but adjusted to rain gauge measurements. For the convective cases, our hybrid retrievals outperform the traditional R(Zh) and pure R(AH/V) retrievals with fixed αH/V values when evaluated with gauge measurements and outperform RW when evaluated by disdrometer measurements. Potential improvements using ray-wise αH/V and segment-wise applications of the ZPHI method along the radials are discussed.

A New Data Fusion Neural Network Scheme for Rainfall Retrieval Using Passive Microwave and Visible/Infrared Satellite Data

A new data fusion technique based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) for the design of a rainfall retrieval algorithm is presented. The use of both VIS/IR (VISible and InfraRed) data from GEO (Geostationary Earth Orbit) satellite and of passive microwave data from LEO (Low Earth Orbit) satellite can take advantage of both types of sensors reducing their limitations. The technique can reconstruct the surface rain field with the MSG-SEVIRI (Meteosat Second Generation–Spinning Enhanced Visible Infrared Imager) spatial and temporal resolution, which means 3 km at the sub satellite point and 5 km at mid-latitudes, every 15 min, respectively. Rainfall estimations are also compared with H-SAF (Hydrology Satellite Application Facility) PR-OBS3A operational product showing better performance both on the identification of rainy areas and on the retrieval of the amount of precipitation. In particular, in the considered test cases, results report an improvement in average of 83% in terms of probability of rainy areas detection, of 45% in terms of false alarm rate, and of 47% in terms of root mean square error in the retrieval of the amount of precipitation.

Deep Learning for Satellite Rainfall Retrieval Using Himawari-8 Multiple Spectral Channels

Rainfall retrieval using geostationary satellites provides critical means to the monitoring of extreme rainfall events. Using the relatively new Himawari 8 meteorological satellite with three times more channels than its predecessors, the deep learning framework of “convolutional autoencoder” (CAE) was applied to the extraction of cloud and precipitation features. The CAE method was incorporated into the Convolution Neural Network version of the PERSIANN precipitation retrieval that uses GOES satellites. By applying the CAE technique with the addition of Residual Blocks and other modifications of deep learning architecture, the presented derivation of PERSIANN operated at the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan (referred to as PERSIANN-CWB) expands four extra convolution layers to fully use Himawari 8’s infrared and water vapor channels, while preventing degradation of accuracy caused by the deeper network. The development of PERSIANN-CWB was trained over Taiwan for its diverse weather systems and localized rainfall features, and the evaluation reveals an overall improvement from its CNN counterpart and superior performance over all other rainfall retrievals analyzed. Limitation of this model was found in the derivation of typhoon rainfall, an area requiring further research.