Developing a Stacked Ensemble-Based Classification Scheme to Predict Second Primary Cancers in Head and Neck Cancer Survivors

Despite a considerable expansion in the present therapeutic repertoire for other malignancy managements, mortality from head and neck cancer (HNC) has not significantly improved in recent decades. Moreover, the second primary cancer (SPC) diagnoses increased in patients with HNC, but studies providing evidence to support SPCs prediction in HNC are lacking. Several base classifiers are integrated forming an ensemble meta-classifier using a stacked ensemble method to predict SPCs and find out relevant risk features in patients with HNC. The balanced accuracy and area under the curve (AUC) are over 0.761 and 0.847, with an approximately 2% and 3% increase, respectively, compared to the best individual base classifier. Our study found the top six ensemble risk features, such as body mass index, primary site of HNC, clinical nodal (N) status, primary site surgical margins, sex, and pathologic nodal (N) status. This will help clinicians screen HNC survivors before SPCs occur.

Impact of Advanced Radiotherapy on Second Primary Cancer Risk in Prostate Cancer Survivors: A Nationwide Cohort Study

PurposeExternal Beam Radiotherapy (EBRT) techniques dramatically changed over the years. This may have affected the risk of radiation-induced second primary cancers (SPC), due to increased irradiated low dose volumes and scatter radiation. We investigated whether patterns of SPC after EBRT have changed over the years in prostate cancer (PCa) survivors.Materials and MethodsPCa survivors diagnosed between 1990-2014 were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Patients treated with EBRT were divided in three time periods, representing 2-dimensional Radiotherapy (RT), 3-dimensional conformal RT (3D-CRT), and the advanced RT (AdvRT) era. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and absolute excess risks (AER) were calculated to estimate relative and excess absolute SPC risks. Sub-hazard ratios (sHRs) were calculated to compare SPC rates between the EBRT and prostatectomy cohort. SPCs were categorized by subsite and anatomic region.ResultsPCa survivors who received EBRT had an increased risk of developing a solid SPC (SIR=1.08; 1.05-1.11), especially in patients aged <70 years (SIR=1.13; 1.09-1.16). Pelvic SPC risks were increased (SIR=1.28; 1.23-1.34), with no obvious differences between the three EBRT eras. Non-pelvic SPC were only significantly increased in the AdvRT era (SIR=1.08; 1.02-1.14), in particular for the 1-5 year follow-up period. Comparing the EBRT cohort to the prostatectomy cohort, again an increased pelvic SPC risk was found for all EBRT periods (sHRs= 1.61, 1.47-1.76). Increased non-pelvic SPC risks were present for all RT eras and highest for the AdvRT period (sHRs=1.17, 1.06-1.29).ConclusionSPC risk in patients with EBRT is increased and remained throughout the different EBRT eras. The risk of developing a SPC outside the pelvic area changed unfavorably in the AdvRT era. Prolonged follow-up is needed to confirm this observation. Whether this is associated with increased irradiated low-dose volumes and scatter, or other changes in clinical EBRT practice, is the subject of further research.

cfTrack: Exome-wide mutation analysis of cell-free DNA to simultaneously monitor the full spectrum of cancer treatment outcomes: MRD, recurrence, and evolution

Purpose: Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) offers a non-invasive approach to monitor cancer. Here we develop a method using whole-exome sequencing (WES) of cfDNA for simultaneously monitoring the full spectrum of cancer treatment outcomes, including MRD, recurrence, evolution, and second primary cancer. Experimental Design: Three simulation datasets were generated from 26 cancer patients to benchmark the detection performance of MRD/recurrence and second primary cancers. For further validation, cfDNA samples (n=76) from cancer patients (n=35) with six different cancer types were used for validating the performance of cancer monitoring during various treatments. Results: We present a cfDNA-based cancer monitoring method, named cfTrack. Taking advantage of the broad genome coverage of WES data, cfTrack can sensitively detect MRD and cancer recurrence by integrating signals across the known clonal tumor mutations of a patient. In addition, cfTrack detects tumor evolution and second primary cancers by de novo identifying emerging tumor mutations. A series of machine learning and statistical denoising techniques are applied to enhance the detection power. On the simulation data, cfTrack achieved an average AUC of 99% on the validation dataset and 100% on the independent dataset in detecting recurrence in samples with tumor fraction ≥0.05%. In addition, cfTrack yielded an average AUC of 88% in detecting second primary cancers in samples with tumor fraction ≥0.2%. On real data, cfTrack accurately monitors tumor evolution during treatment, which cannot be accomplished by previous methods. Conclusion: Our results demonstrated that cfTrack can sensitively and specifically monitor the full spectrum of cancer treatment outcomes using exome-wide mutation analysis of cfDNA.

Clinical and Sociodemographic Risk Factors Associated With the Development of Second Primary Cancers Among Postmenopausal Breast Cancer Survivors

Introduction: Advances in breast cancer (BC) diagnosis and treatment have increased the number of long-term survivors. Consequently, survivors of primary BC are at a greater risk of developing second primary cancers (SPCs). The risk factors for SPCs among BC survivors including sociodemographic, cancer treatment, comorbidities, and other medications have not been comprehensively examined. The purpose of this study is to assess the incidence and clinicopathologic factors associated with risk of SPCs. Methods: We analyzed 170, 639 women with early-stage primary BC diagnosed between January 2000-December 2015 from the Medicare-linked Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER-Medicare) database. SPC was defined as any diagnosis of malignancy occurring within the study period and at least two months after primary BC diagnosis. Univariate analyses compared baseline characteristics between those who developed a SPC and those who did not. We evaluated the cause-specific hazard of developing a SPC in the presence of death as a competing risk.Results: Of the study cohort, 20,838 (12%) of BC survivors developed a SPC and BC was the most common SPC type (32%). The median time to SPC was 42 months. Women who were white, older, and with fewer comorbidities were more likely to develop a SPC. While statins [hazard ratio (HR) 1.060 (1.016 - 1.106)] and anti-hypertensives [HR 1.517 (1.461 – 1.575)] increased the hazard of developing a SPC, aromatase inhibitor therapy [HR 0.588 (0.542 – 0.638)] and bisphosphonates [HR 0.897 (0.848 – 0.949)] were associated with a decreased hazard of developing any SPC, including non-breast SPCs.Conclusion: Our study shows that specific clinical factors including type of cancer treatment, medications, and comorbidities are associated with increased risk for the development of SPCs among older BC survivors. These results can increase patient and clinician awareness, target cancer screening among BC survivors, as well as developing risk-adapted management strategies.

Coexisting and Second Primary Cancers in Patients with Uveal Melanoma: A 10-Year Nationwide Database Analysis

Uveal melanoma is the most common intraocular tumor in adults. Metastatic disease occurs in about 30% of patients, for which there is currently no effective treatment. More than half of patients are long-term survivors, and it is well established that cancer survivors are prone to developing second primary cancers. In this study, we analyzed 10 years’ worth of data from the nationwide database to determine the rates of coexisting malignancies and second primary cancers associated with uveal melanoma. The mean annual incidence of uveal melanoma was 1.1 per million. Approximately 43% of patients had coexisting cancers. The most common coexisting cancer was lung cancer (10%) followed by liver cancer (6%) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (6%). In patients whose first cancer in their lifetime was uveal melanoma, the 10-year cumulative incidence of second primary cancers was 22% (95% confidence interval, 9–31%). The age- and sex-adjusted standard incidence rates was 3.61 (95% confidence interval, 2.61–4.86). The most common second primary cancers were lung cancer and hepatocellular carcinoma, followed by prostate, thyroid, pancreatic, and ovarian cancers. Age was the only factor associated with second primary cancer development. Our findings will be helpful in providing counseling for cancer screening in uveal melanoma patients.

Risks and cancer associations of metachronous and synchronous multiple primary cancers: a 25-year retrospective study

Background The situation of patients developing multiple primary cancers is becoming more frequent and graver. This study investigated the risks of developing second primary cancers that are related to first primary cancers, and the interval times of synchronous and metachronous multiple primary cancers. Patients and methods Retrospective data were retrieved from 109,054 patients aged ≥18 who were diagnosed with a first solid cancer and registered at Siriraj Cancer Center between 1991 and 2015. A two-month period between first- and second- primary cancers was used to differentiate metachronous and synchronous multiple primary cancers. The combinations of subsequent cancers and relative risks (RRs) of having multiple primary cancers versus having single primary cancer for the top-ten first and second primary cancers were examined. The RR was adjusted for age of the first primary cancer. A survival analysis of the time to second-primary-cancer development was performed. Results Multiple primary cancers were found in 1785 (1.63%) patients. Most (70.87%) second primary cancers occurred after 2 months of first breast, skin, colorectal, lung, head and neck, liver, male genital cancer–prostate, thyroid, and female genital cancer–non-uterine cancers, resulting in those cancers being classified as metachronous multiple primary cancer. After adjustment for age at first diagnosis, head and neck cancers had the highest metachronous association with second esophageal cancers (RR, 25.06; 95% CI, 13.41–50.77). Prostate cancer and second colorectal cancer also demonstrated a high metachronous association (RR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.25–3.05). A strong synchronous association was found between uterine and ovarian cancers (RR, 27.77; 95% CI, 17.97–43.63). The median time from the first uterine cancer to second-cancer development was 55 days. Conclusions The top-ten most frequent multiple primary cancers were the following: breast; liver; head and neck; colorectal; male genital cancer–prostate; skin; female genital cancer–uterine; thyroid; lung; and female genital cancer–non-uterine. Second primary cancers showed specific associations that depended on the first primary cancer. Physicians should be cognizant of the most common combinations and the interval times of metachronous and synchronous multiple primary cancers.