Institutional principles of social trust in the context of fiscal and monetary security

A review of the state of research on the problems of social confidence in the institutions of fiscal and monetary power as a factor of fiscal and monetary security in foreign and domestic economic literature (taking into account the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic) has been made. It is shown that the research is based mainly on the methodology of functional analysis and measurement of the subjective attitude to the object of trust, which is formed by changes in the behavior of the object and therefore can not serve as a signal to prevent negative trends. Regarding the interpretation of the essence of trust, its deep foundations, which is important for building an effective system of practical actions, in this area there are no generally accepted approaches, but there is a diversity of views and opinions. At the same time, the guidelines for determining the level of economic security in Ukraine, including financial security, are too cumbersome, somewhat outdated and difficult to apply in practice. Basic approaches to understanding and measuring trust and proposals for qualitative characteristics and possible quantitative indicators of social trust in the institutions of fiscal and monetary authority, based not on subjective impressions, but on assessments of the objective state of the fiscal and monetary sphere, are substantiated. It is proposed to build a system for assessing warning signals concerning the possible dynamics of the level of confidence and the risks and dangers, including the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, based on the ratios of hexagon components of macroeconomic indicators that reflect the conditions of the internal and external microeconomic stability , state budget balance, the balance of payments, exchange rate and interest rates). The role of social trust in the institutions of fiscal and monetary power as a basis for balanced dynamics of all components of economic development and a factor of fiscal and monetary security is revealed.

Selection for rapid uptake of scarce or fluctuating resource explains vulnerability of glycolysis to imbalance

Glycolysis is a conserved central pathway in energy metabolism that converts glucose to pyruvate with net production of two ATP molecules. Because ATP is produced only in the lower part of glycolysis (LG), preceded by an initial investment of ATP in the upper glycolysis (UG), achieving robust start-up of the pathway upon activation presents a challenge: a sudden increase in glucose concentration can throw a cell into a self-sustaining imbalanced state in which UG outpaces LG, glycolytic intermediates accumulate and the cell is unable to maintain high ATP concentration needed to support cellular functions. Such metabolic imbalance can result in “substrate-accelerated death”, a phenomenon observed in prokaryotes and eukaryotes when cells are exposed to an excess of substrate that previously limited growth. Here, we address why evolution has apparently not eliminated such a costly vulnerability and propose that it is a manifestation of an evolutionary trade-off, whereby the glycolysis pathway is adapted to quickly secure scarce or fluctuating resource at the expense of vulnerability in an environment with ample resource. To corroborate this idea, we perform individual-based eco-evolutionary simulations of a simplified yeast glycolysis pathway consisting of UG, LG, phosphate transport between a vacuole and a cytosol, and a general ATP demand reaction. The pathway is evolved in constant or fluctuating resource environments by allowing mutations that affect the (maximum) reaction rate constants, reflecting changing expression levels of different glycolytic enzymes. We demonstrate that under limited constant resource, populations evolve to a genotype that exhibits balanced dynamics in the environment it evolved in, but strongly imbalanced dynamics under ample resource conditions. Furthermore, when resource availability is fluctuating, imbalanced dynamics confers a fitness advantage over balanced dynamics: when glucose is abundant, imbalanced pathways can quickly accumulate the glycolytic intermediate FBP as intracellular storage that is used during periods of starvation to maintain high ATP concentration needed for growth. Our model further predicts that in fluctuating environments, competition for glucose can result in stable coexistence of balanced and imbalanced cells, as well as repeated cycles of population crashes and recoveries that depend on such polymorphism. Overall, we demonstrate the importance of ecological and evolutionary arguments for understanding seemingly maladaptive aspects of cellular metabolism.

Does Balance Dynamics Well Capture the Secondary Circulation and Spinup of a Simulated Hurricane?

This study investigates a claim made by Heng et al. in an article published in 2017 and intimated soon after in their article published in 2018 that axisymmetric “balanced dynamics can well capture the secondary circulation in the full-physics model” during hurricane spinup. Using output from a new, convection-permitting, three-dimensional numerical simulation of an intensifying hurricane, azimuthally averaged forcings of tangential momentum and heat are diagnosed to force an axisymmetric Eliassen balance model under strict balance conditions. The balance solutions are found, inter alia, to poorly represent the peak inflow velocity in the boundary layer and present a layer of relatively deep inflow extending well above the boundary layer in the high-wind-speed region of the vortex. Such a deep inflow layer, a hallmark of the classical spinup mechanism for tropical cyclones comprising the radial convergence of absolute angular momentum above the boundary layer, is not found in the numerical simulation during the period of peak intensification. These deficiencies are traced to the inability of the balance model to represent the nonlinear boundary layer spinup mechanism. These results are contrasted with a pseudobalance Eliassen formulation that improves the solution in some respects while sacrificing strict thermal wind balance. Overall, the quantitative results refute the Heng et al. claim and implicate the general necessity of the nonlinear boundary layer spinup mechanism to explain the spinup of a hurricane in realistic model configurations and in reality.

Potential Vorticity Mixing and Rapid Intensification in the Numerically Simulated Supertyphoon Haiyan (2013)

The inner-core dynamics of Supertyphoon Haiyan (2013) undergoing rapid intensification (RI) are studied with a 2-km-resolution cloud-resolving model simulation. The potential vorticity (PV) field in the simulated storm reveals an elliptical and polygonal-shaped eyewall at the low and middle levels during RI onset. The PV budget analysis confirms the importance of PV mixing at this stage, that is, the asymmetric transport of diabatically generated PV to the storm center from the eyewall and the ejection of PV filaments outside the eyewall. We employ a piecewise PV inversion (PPVI) and an omega equation to interpret the model results in balanced dynamics. The omega equation diagnosis suggests eye dynamical warming is associated with the PV mixing. The PPVI indicates that PV mixing accounts for about 50% of the central pressure fall during RI onset. The decrease of central pressure enhances the boundary layer (BL) inflow. The BL inflow leads to contraction of the radius of the maximum tangential wind (RMW) and the formation of a symmetric convective PV tower inside the RMW. The eye in the later stage of the RI is warmed by the subsidence associated with the convective PV towers. The results suggest that the pressure change associated with PV mixing, the increase of the symmetric BL radial inflow, and the development of a symmetric convective PV tower are the essential collaborating dynamics for RI. An experiment with 500-m resolution shows that the convergence of BL inflow can lead to an updraft magnitude of 20 m s−1 and to a convective PV tower with a peak value of 200 PVU (1 PVU = 10−6 K kg−1 m2 s−1).

Selection for rapid uptake of scarce or fluctuating resource explains vulnerability of glycolysis to imbalance

Glycolysis is a conserved central pathway in energy metabolism that converts glucose to pyruvate with net production of two ATP molecules. Because ATP is produced only in the lower part of glycolysis (LG), preceded by an initial investment of ATP in the upper glycolysis (UG), achieving robust start-up of the pathway upon activation presents a challenge: a sudden increase in glucose concentration can throw a cell into a self-sustaining imbalanced state in which UG outpaces LG, glycolytic intermediates accumulate and the cell is unable to maintain high ATP concentration needed to support cellular functions. Such metabolic imbalance can result in “substrate-accelerated death”, a phenomenon observed in prokaryotes and eukaryotes when cells are exposed to an excess of substrate that previously limited growth. Here, we address why evolution has apparently not eliminated such a costly vulnerability and propose that it is a manifestation of an evolutionary trade-off, whereby the glycolysis pathway is adapted to quickly secure scarce or fluctuating resource at the expense of vulnerability in an environment with ample resource. To corroborate this idea, we perform evolutionary simulations of a simplified yeast glycolysis pathway consisting of UG, LG, phosphate transport between a vacuole and a cytosol, and a general ATP demand reaction. The pathway is evolved in constant or fluctuating resource environments by allowing mutations that affect the (maximum) reaction rate constants, reflecting changing expression levels of different glycolytic enzymes. We demonstrate that under limited constant resource, the population evolves to a genotype that is balanced but exhibits strongly imbalanced dynamics under ample resource conditions. Furthermore, when resource availability is fluctuating, the imbalanced phenotype enjoys a fitness advantage over balanced dynamics: when glucose is abundant, imbalanced pathways can quickly accumulate glycolytic intermediate FBP as intracellular storage that is used during periods of starvation to maintain high ATP concentration needed for growth. Our model further predicts that in environments with fluctuating resource, competition for glucose can result in stable coexistence of balanced and imbalanced cells, as well as repeated cycles of population crashes and recoveries that depend on such polymorphism. Overall, we demonstrate the importance of ecological and evolutionary arguments for understanding seemingly maladaptive aspects of cellular metabolism.

Balanced Dynamics and Moisture Quasi-Equilibrium in DYNAMO Convection

Tropical convection that occurs on large-enough space and time scales may evolve in response to large-scale balanced circulations. In this scenario, large-scale midtropospheric vorticity anomalies modify the atmospheric stability by virtue of thermal wind gradient balance. The convective vertical mass flux and the moisture profile adjust to changes in atmospheric stability that affect moisture and entropy transport. We hypothesize that the convection observed during the 2011 DYNAMO field campaign evolves in response to balanced dynamics. Strong relationships between midtropospheric vorticity and atmospheric stability confirm the relationship between the dynamic and the thermodynamic environments, while robust relationships between the atmospheric stability, the vertical mass flux, and the saturation fraction provide evidence of moisture adjustment. These results are important because the part of convection that occurs as a response to balanced dynamics is potentially predictable. Furthermore, the diagnostics used in this work provide a simple framework for model evaluation, and suggest that one way to improve simulations of large-scale organized deep tropical convection in global models is to adequately capture the relationship between the dynamic and thermodynamic environments in convective parameterizations.

On the regularity of the Green–Naghdi equations for a rotating shallow fluid layer

The Green–Naghdi equations are an extension of the shallow-water equations that capture the effects of finite fluid depth at arbitrary order in the characteristic height to width aspect ratio $H/L$. The shallow-water equations capture these effects to first order only, resulting in a relatively simple two-dimensional fluid-dynamical model for the layer horizontal velocity and depth. The Green–Naghdi equations, like the shallow-water equations, are two-dimensional fluid equations expressing momentum and mass conservation. There are different ‘levels’ of the Green–Naghdi equations of rapidly increasing complexity. In the present paper we focus on the behaviour of the lowest-level Green–Naghdi equations for a rotating shallow fluid layer, paying close attention to the flow structure at small spatial scales. We compare directly with the shallow-water equations and study the differences arising in their solutions. By recasting the equations into a form which both explicitly conserves Rossby–Ertel potential vorticity and represents the leading-order departure from geostrophic–hydrostatic balance, we are able to accurately describe both the ‘slow’ predominantly sub-inertial balanced dynamics and the ‘fast’ residual imbalanced dynamics. This decomposition has proved fruitful in studies of shallow-water dynamics but appears not to have been used before in studies of Green–Naghdi dynamics. Importantly, we find that this decomposition exposes a fundamental inconsistency in the Green–Naghdi equations for horizontal scales less than the mean fluid depth, scales for which the Green–Naghdi equations are supposed to more accurately model. Such scales exhibit pronounced activity compared to the shallow-water equations, and in particular spectra for certain fields like the divergence are flat or rising at high wavenumbers. This indicates a lack of convergence at small scales, and is also consistent with the poor convergence of total energy with resolution compared to the shallow-water equations. We suggest a mathematical reformulation of the Green–Naghdi equations which may improve convergence at small scales.

The Evolution of Vortex Tilt and Vertical Motion of Tropical Cyclones in Directional Shear Flows

Recent studies have demonstrated the importance of moist dynamics on the intensification variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in directional shear flows. Here, we propose that dry dynamics can account for many aspects of the structure change of TCs in moist simulations. The change of vortex tilt with height and time essentially determines the kinematic and thermodynamic structure of TCs experiencing directional shear flows, depending on how the environmental flow rotates with height, that is, in a clockwise (CW) or counterclockwise (CC) fashion. The vortex tilt precesses faster and is closer to the left-of-shear (with respect to the deep-layer shear) region, with a smaller magnitude at equilibrium in CW hodographs than in CC hodographs. The low-level vortex tilt and accordingly more low-level upward motions are ahead of the overall vortex tilt in CW hodographs but are behind the overall vortex tilt in CC hodographs. Such a configuration of vortex tilt in CW hodographs is potentially favorable for the continuous precession of convection into the upshear region but in CC hodographs it is unfavorable. Most of the upward motions within a TC undergoing CW shear are concentrated in the downshear-left region, whereas those in the CC shear are located in the downshear-right region. Moreover, the upward (downward) motions are in phase with positive (negative) local helicity in both CW and CC hodographs. Here, we present an alternative mechanism that is associated with balanced dynamics in response to vortex tilt to explain the coincidence and also the distribution variability of vertical motions, as well as local helicity in directional shear flows. The balanced dynamics could explain the overlap of positive helicity and convection in both moist simulations and observations.

Reply to “Comments on ‘Revisiting the Balanced and Unbalanced Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Intensification’”

In their comment, Montgomery and Smith critique the recent study of Heng et al. that revisited the balanced and unbalanced aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification based on diagnostics of a full-physics model simulation using the Sawyer–Eliassen equation. Heng et al. showed that the balanced dynamics reproduced to a large extent the secondary circulation in the full-physics model simulation and concluded that balanced dynamics can well explain TC intensification in their full-physics model simulation. Montgomery and Smith suspect the balanced solution in Heng et al. because the basic-state vortex is not exactly in thermal wind balance in the boundary layer and possibly a too-large diffusivity in the numerical model was used. In this reply, we first indicate that the boundary layer spinup mechanism proposed by Smith et al. is a fast response of the TC boundary layer to surface friction and should not be a major mechanism of TC intensification. We then evaluate the possible effect of imbalance in the basic state in the boundary layer on the balanced solution. The results show that although the removal of the imbalance in the boundary layer leads to about a one-third reduction in the maximum inflow near the surface in the inner-core region, the overall effect on the tangential wind budget is marginal because of other compensations. We also show that both the horizontal and vertical diffusivities in the model used in Heng et al. are reasonable based on previous observational studies. Therefore, we conclude that all results in Heng et al. are valid. Some related issues are also discussed.

Baroclinic Instability in the Presence of Convection

Baroclinic mixed-layer instabilities have recently been recognized as an important source of submesoscale energy in deep winter mixed layers. While the focus has so far been on the balanced dynamics of these instabilities, they occur in and depend on an environment shaped by atmospherically forced small-scale turbulence. In this study, idealized numerical simulations are presented that allow the development of both baroclinic instability and convective small-scale turbulence, with simple control over the relative strength. If the convection is only weakly forced, baroclinic instability restratifies the layer and shuts off convection, as expected. With increased forcing, however, it is found that baroclinic instabilities are remarkably resilient to the presence of convection. Even if the instability is too weak to restratify the layer and shut off convection, the instability still grows in the convecting environment and generates baroclinic eddies and fronts. This suggests that despite the vigorous atmospherically forced small-scale turbulence in winter mixed layers, baroclinic instabilities can persistently grow, generate balanced submesoscale turbulence, and modify the bulk properties of the upper ocean.