A quality framework for statistical algorithms

As national statistical offices (NSOs) modernize, interest in integrating machine learning (ML) into official statisticians’ toolbox is growing. Two challenges to such an integration are the potential loss of transparency from using “black-boxes” and the need to develop a quality framework. In 2019, the High-Level Group for the Modernisation of Official Statistics (HLG-MOS) launched a project on machine learning with one of the objectives being to address these two challenges. One of the outputs of the HLG-MOS project is a Quality Framework for Statistical Algorithms (QF4SA). While many quality frameworks exist, they have been conceived with traditional methods in mind, and they tend to target statistical outputs. Currently, machine learning methods are being looked at for use in processes producing intermediate outputs, which lead to a final statistical output. Therefore, the QF4SA does not replace existing quality frameworks; it complements them. As the QF4SA targets intermediate outputs and not necessarily the final statistical output, it should be used in conjunction with existing quality frameworks to ensure that high-quality outputs are produced. This paper presents the QF4SA, as well as some recommendations for NSOs considering the use of machine learning in the production of official statistics.

A Semi-Automated Term Harmonization Pipeline Applied to Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Clinical Trials

Objective Data harmonization is essential to integrate individual participant data from multiple sites, time periods, and trials for meta-analysis. The process of mapping terms and phrases to an ontology is complicated by typographic errors, abbreviations, truncation, and plurality. We sought to harmonize medical history (MH) and adverse events (AE) term records across 21 randomized clinical trials in pulmonary arterial hypertension and chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension. Methods We developed and applied a semi-automated harmonization pipeline for use with domain-expert annotators to resolve ambiguous term mappings using exact and fuzzy matching. We summarized MH and AE term mapping success, including map quality measures, and imputation of a generalizing term hierarchy as defined by the applied Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities (MedDRA) ontology standard. Results Over 99.6% of both MH (N = 37,105) and AE (N = 58,170) records were successfully mapped to MedDRA low-level terms. Automated exact matching accounted for 74.9% of MH and 85.5% of AE mappings. Term recommendations from fuzzy matching in the pipeline facilitated annotator mapping of the remaining 24.9% of MH and 13.8% of AE records. Imputation of the generalized MedDRA term hierarchy was unambiguous in 85.2% of high-level terms, 99.4% of high-level group terms, and 99.5% of system organ class in MH, and 75% of high-level terms, 98.3% of high-level group terms, and 98.4% of system organ class in AE. Conclusion This pipeline dramatically reduced the burden of manual annotation for MH and AE term harmonization and could be adapted to other data integration efforts.

The Applicability of ADA, AFU, and LAC in the Early Diagnosis and Disease Risk Assessment of Hepatitis B-Associated Liver Cirrhosis and Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the applicability of adenosine deaminase (ADA), α-l-fucosidase (AFU), lactic acid (LAC), and their combined detection in the early diagnosis of chronic hepatitis B (CHB), liver cirrhosis (LC), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).Methods: A retrospective analysis of hepatitis B-positive liver disease patients admitted between 2015 and 2020 was conducted. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the diagnostic value of each indicator in LC and HCC, and binary logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the factors and risks related to the occurrence of the two conditions.Results: The levels of ADA, AFU, and LAC were significantly increased in patients with CHB, LC, and HCC (p < 0.05). The ROC curve showed that the sensitivity and specificity of ADA, AFU, LAC, and their combined detection in the CHB and LC groups as well as in the LC and HCC groups reflected different degrees of clinical value. In the CHB and LC groups, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) values of ADA, AFU, and LAC among patients in the high-level group were 3.218, 1.859, and 11.474, respectively, when the median was considered the cutoff point. When quartiles were considered the cutoff point, the OR risk values of the adjusted levels of ADA, AFU, and LAC were higher than those of the lowest-level group (Q1) (p < 0.05). In the LC and HCC groups, the adjusted OR values of ADA, AFU, and LAC among patients in the high-level group were 0.967, 2.365, and 38.368, respectively. When quartiles were considered the cutoff point, the OR risk values of AFU and LAC levels were higher than those of the lowest-level group (Q1) (p < 0.05).Conclusion: ADA, AFU, and LAC demonstrated good value in the early diagnosis of LC and HCC. The combined detection of ADA+AFU+LAC is more effective than single detection for the early diagnosis of the two conditions. ADA, AFU, and LAC can serve as risk predictors of LC, while AFU and LAC can be considered early risk predictors of HCC.

High HBV Load Weakens Predictive Effect of Serum miR-122 on Response to Sorafenib in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

Background. MiR-122 is a liver-specific microRNA. The aim of the study was to explore the association of serum miR-122 with response to sorafenib in hepatitis B virus- (HBV-) related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients and to further reveal the effect of the virus load on such potential relationship. Methods. A total of 588 patients with HCC were retrospectively included. All of them were diagnosed with HBV-related locally advanced HCC and were treated with sorafenib. Therapeutic and prognostic information and other information were collected from medical records. Stored blood specimens that were obtained before sorafenib treatment were adopted to detect miR-122. Results. The patients were divided into high-level group and low-level group according to the median of serum miR-122 level, and each group contained 294 patients. During the first 24 weeks after sorafenib treatment, the patients in the high-level group had more opportunities to experience progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) than those in the low-level group (HR: 2.47, 95%CI: 1.24∼4.88; HR: 1.20, 95%CI: 1.09∼1.32). In the subgroup analysis, the relationship between serum miR-122 level and overall survival still existed in the patients with relatively lower HBV load (HR: 1.22, 95%CI: 1.09∼1.36), but not in the patients with higher HBV load (HR: 1.12, 95%CI: 0.93∼1.35). Conclusion. Higher serum level of miR-122 at baseline was associated with a better response to sorafenib in HBV-related locally advanced HCC patients, and relatively high HBV load weakened such predictive effect mentioned above.

Study on relationship between chemokines and immune activation phenotype of breast cancer.

e12564 Background: Breast cancer is one of the most common malignant tumors in women. The incidence rate and mortality rate are increasing year by year. Studies have shown that chemokines may act as an important driver in the immune microenvironment of breast cancer. Understanding the potential immunobiological driving effect in breast cancer is important for the early diagnosis of breast cancer, which is helpful to determine the immunotherapy strategy for patients. Methods: Gene expression data of 1050 cases of breast cancer were downloaded from TCGA database. Cluster analysis was applied to investigate the level of immunity of the observations using ssGESA software. The observations were divided into three groups according to their immune score. The expression of CXCL9, CXCL10, CCL4 and CCL5 chemokines were checked for the three groups using PHEATMAP software. The differential expression analysis for the three groups was performed using Edger software. The enrichment analysis was conducted using clusterprofiler software. Results: Cluster analysis showed that the observations could be divided into three subgroups according to their immunity score, and the heatmap proved that expression level of CXCL9, CXCL10, CCL4 and CCL5 chemokines of the subgroup with high immune score were apparently higher than that of the other two subgroups. The differential expression analysis revealed that the expressions of T cell exhaustion genes were markedly different between high-level group and low-level group. A total of 402 differentially expressed genes were identified, among which 380 were up-regulated in high-level group, comparing to low-level group, and 22 were down-regulated in high-level group, comparing to low-level group. Enrichment analysis indicated they were enriched in T cell-related pathway, such as th17, th1, th3 cell differentiation and so on. Conclusions: Our study showed that the expression of four chemokines were obviously different between the groups with high immune score and low immune score. Observations with high expression of four chemokines had more active levels of immune infiltration. Differentially expressed genes were enriched in T cell-related pathway. These four chemokines could be potential biomarkers for breast cancer patients through their unique immune characteristics.

Effects of Ultratrail Running on Neuromuscular Function, Muscle Damage and Hydration Status. Differences According to Training Level

The status of trail running races has exponentially grown in recent years. The present study aimed to: (a) evaluate the acute response of ultratrail racing in terms of neuromuscular function, muscle damage and hydration status; (b) analyze if responses could differ according to training levels. Twenty runners participated in the present study. The participants were divided into amateur training level (n = 10; 43.30 ± 4.52 years) or high level competitors (n = 10; 41.40 ± 6.18). Neuromuscular response (squat jump, countermovement jump and Abalakov jump), muscle damage (alanine aminotransferase, bilirubin, creatine kinase and leukocytes) and hydration status (sodium and creatinine) were evaluated before and after the Guara Somontano Ultratrail Race (108 km distance, with an accumulated slope of 5800 m). The height and power achieved by vertical jumps were lower after the race (p < 0.001). The post-race muscle damage and creatinine parameters increased in both groups (p < 0.001). The high-level group obtained lower percentages of change in squat jump and countermovement jump than the amateur-level group (p < 0.05). However, the increase in creatinine was greater for the high-level group (p < 0.05). Ultratrail racing reduces neuromuscular function and increases muscle damage. High-level runners showed less neuromuscular fatigue compared to amateur ones.

Associations between dietary patterns and physical fitness among Chinese elderly

Objective: To explore the relationship between dietary patterns and physical fitness among older Chinese (≥60 years) individuals. Design: Cross-sectional survey. Dietary data were collected by a simplified semi-quantitative FFQ. The 30-s Chair Stand test (30sCST), 30-s Arm Curl test (30sACT), 8-foot Time Up-and-Go test (8fTUAGT) and 6-min Walking test (6mWT) were used to assess physical fitness. Dietary patterns were obtained by factor analysis. The association between dietary patterns and physical fitness was explored by multiple logistic regression. Setting: Six communities (villages) of three districts in Liaocheng City (Shandong Province, China). Participants: A total of 596 residents were recruited from April to May 2017. Results: Among 556 residents who were finally enrolled, 196 were men (35 %) and 360 were women (65 %). Three dietary patterns were identified: ‘Western’, ‘Vegetarian’ and ‘Modern’. The 30sACT revealed that men in the fourth quartile of the Western pattern were less likely to be classified in the ‘high-level’ group, but men in the fourth quartile of the Vegetarian pattern were classified in the high-level group. The 6mWT revealed that men in the fourth quartile of the Modern pattern were classified in the high-level group. These associations were independent of confounding factors. Conclusions: Adherence to the Vegetarian pattern and Modern pattern may be protective factors for maintaining good physical fitness in older Chinese individuals. The Western pattern may lead to poor physical fitness in this population.

Development of Teaching Materials of Poetry Writing Using Pictures for the Elementary Students

The research aims to develop the product of Teaching Materials of Poetry Writing Using Pictures. This developed teaching material result is expected to be used by the students of grade V of SD Xaverius Lubuklinggau, SD Negeri 44 Lubuklinggau, and SD Negeri 20 Lubuklinggau in learning to write poetry.The method used in research is research and development or better known as R &amp; D.If the calculation of the data is smaller than the alpha value (0.05), it means that there has been a significant difference before it is used after the use of poetry writing materials compared to the KKM of each school, so that the Teaching Materials of Poetry Writing Using Pictures is declared effective. From the calculation bySPSS, the results obtained for the test value tcount 11.219 and ttable 2.045 for (d) 30 and alpa 0.05 in high level group students of SD Xaverius. While for the average level group shows the value of tcount 9,416 and ttable 2.042 for (d) 30 and alpha 0.05. For the low group level, gained the tcount value of 4.859 and ttable 2,110 for (d) 17 and alpha 0.05, thus it can be concluded that tcount&gt; ttable, so H0 is rejected, and H1 is accepted. In the other word, it can be concluded that tcount&gt; ttable, so that H0 is rejected.Based on t test result from three schools, it can be concluded that tcount&gt; ttable, so H0 is rejected, and Ha accepted. The average value of learning completeness after using writing materials is the same or greater with the Minimal Completeness Criteria (KKM) in each school, meaning that the teaching materials is effective used to improve the students’ ability in writing poetry.

Understanding of farmers' perception of climate change and adaptation strategies: A case study in Jhargram district of West Bengal, India

A study on farmers perceived prevalence of climate change, manifested by the phenomena like increasing temperature, fluctuating rainfall etc. and in the considered agro-ecological areas was conducted in Binpur II block of Jhargram district of West Bengal to assess the extent of farmers' perception about the climate change and their adaptation strategies to cope up with losses due to climate change. Results showed that the farmers' perception of climate change greatly influenced farmers' readiness to adapt climate change by considering some adjustments to their cultivation and production practices. The findings showed that the farmers' perception of climate change was at a high-level group of respondents. Results showed that 50% of respondents were optimistic with the idea that they can cope up the climate change problems if they get proper government assistance. Only about 13% of farmers perceived Government plans on climate change. Regarding the adaptation strategies, 40% of respondents followed more or less strategies, whereas most of the respondents did not adopt any strategies in this regard.

Development of Teaching Materials of Poetry Writing Using Pictures for the Elementary Students

The research aims to develop the product of Teaching Materials of Poetry Writing Using Pictures. This developed teaching material result is expected to be used by the students of grade V of SD Xaverius Lubuklinggau, SD Negeri 44 Lubuklinggau, and SD Negeri 20 Lubuklinggau in learning to write poetry.The method used in research is research and development or better known as R &amp; D.If the calculation of the data is smaller than the alpha value (0.05), it means that there has been a significant difference before it is used after the use of poetry writing materials compared to the KKM of each school, so that the Teaching Materials of Poetry Writing Using Pictures is declared effective. From the calculation bySPSS, the results obtained for the test value tcount 11.219 and ttable 2.045 for (d) 30 and alpa 0.05 in high level group students of SD Xaverius. While for the average level group shows the value of tcount 9,416 and ttable 2.042 for (d) 30 and alpha 0.05. For the low group level, gained the tcount value of 4.859 and ttable 2,110 for (d) 17 and alpha 0.05, thus it can be concluded that tcount&gt; ttable, so H0 is rejected, and H1 is accepted. In the other word, it can be concluded that tcount&gt; ttable, so that H0 is rejected.Based on t test result from three schools, it can be concluded that tcount&gt; ttable, so H0 is rejected, and Ha accepted. The average value of learning completeness after using writing materials is the same or greater with the Minimal Completeness Criteria (KKM) in each school, meaning that the teaching materials is effective used to improve the students’ ability in writing poetry.