Same People, Different Results: Categorizing Cancer Registry Cases across the Rural-Urban Continuum

Background: Many rural-urban indexes are utilized in United States cancer research. This variation introduces inconsistencies between studies with a rural-urban component. Recommendations to date on which index to utilize have prioritized index geographical unit over feasibility of index inclusion in analysis. We evaluated rural-urban indexes and recommend one index for use to increase comparability across studies. Methods: We assessed nine U.S. rural-urban indexes regarding their respective rural and urban code ranges; geographical unit, land area, and population distributions; percent agreement; suitability as continuous variables in analysis; and feasibility of integration into national, state, and local cancer research. We referenced 1,569 Wisconsin Pancreatic Cancer Registry patients to demonstrate how rural-urban index choice impacts patient categorization. Results: Six indexes categorized rural and urban areas. Indexes agreed on binary rural-urban designation for 88.8% of the U.S. population. As ternary variables, they agreed for 83.4%. For cancer registry patients, this decreased to 73.4% and 60.4% agreement, respectively. Rural-Urban Continuum Codes (RUCC) performed the best with ability to differentiate metropolitan, micropolitan, and rural counties, are available for retrospective and prospective studies, and can be coded continuously for analysis. Conclusions: Whether a patient was categorized as urban or rural changed depending on which index was used when applied to a cancer registry data set. We conclude that RUCC is an appropriate and feasible rural-urban index to include in cancer research, as it is standardly available in national cancer registries in its 9-code format and can be matched to patient’s county of residence for local research and it had the least amount of fluctuation of the indices analyzed. Utilizing RUCC as a continuous variable across studies with a rural-urban component will increase reproducibility and comparability of results and eliminate the choice of rural-urban index as a potential source of discrepancy between studies. Trial registration: Not applicable

Surnames in south-eastern France: structure of the rural population during the 19th century through isonymy

An analysis of the distribution of surnames through time and space allows us to understand the structure of human groups, their exchanges or even their possible isolation. The French population has already been studied through surnames and it has been shown that the Sud-Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur region differed from the rest of France in both the 20th and 21st centuries (Mourrieras et al., 1995; Scapoli et al., 2005). The objective of this study was to understand the population evolution and particularities of the Sud-Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur region through an analysis of the distribution of surnames over an earlier period: the 19th century. For this work, 806,069 birth records from 521 communes between 1810 and 1890 were recorded and a total of 23,340 surnames were collected. The estimation of various isonymic parameters has allowed a description of this corpus never exploited before. In order to appreciate the population evolution, the data set was divided into three periods of 25 years. The canton was the geographical unit of this study, and similarities and differences between each of them were evaluated using Lasker distances, which allow the construction of dendrograms. A positive and significant correlation (p<0.0001) was found between Lasker distances and geographical distances using the Mantel test. The lowest inbreeding estimates were found in the Durance Valley. Migration, estimated from the v-index of Karlin and McGregor (1967), showed higher values in the south-western quarter of the region. The decrease in Rst values across the three periods is consistent with a homogenization of the patronymic between the cantons. This three-period approach showed a population evolution influenced by linguistic, cultural, historical and migratory phenomena since the Middle Ages, disrupted by the socioeconomic changes of the 19th century.

Compensation for the Lack of Measured Data on Decisive Cultivation Conditions in Diversified Territories without Losing Correct Information

Sustainable precision agriculture requires site-specific management procedures. This needs appropriate information combining traditional measured data and mapped conditions, models, and specific interpretation. It is impossible to cover the entire variety of sites in the territory with measuring devices, and therefore the measured data are insufficient for a detailed description of changing conditions on each geographical unit. However, detailed data on the morphology and pedologic conditions are usually available, and their synthesis creates the basis for detailed interpolation of the entire area’s measured data and mapping. This article presents a procedure for the synthesis of morphometric and soil indices resulting in the definition and mapping of morpho-pedotops, the interpretation of their thermal–moisture condition, and, consequently, the comparison of these conditions with the condition on the sites with installed sensor stations. This procedure enables reasonable logic interpolation of the measured microclimatic data by sensor stations to the whole study area. The result is the definition of the thermal–moisture condition of the whole territory in comparison to the measured sites. Therefore, the results provide the basis for interpolation for the forecast of climatic events developed for the sites of sensor stations to the whole study area and the forecast of temporal disease events, and thus the basis for precise site-specific field management interventions, even in the case of the lack of the whole area covering measured data.

Scaling-down mass ivermectin treatment for onchocerciasis elimination: modelling the impact of the geographical unit for decision making

Background Due to spatial heterogeneity in onchocerciasis transmission, the duration of ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) required for eliminating onchocerciasis will vary within endemic areas and the occurrence of transmission ‘hotspots’ is inevitable. The geographical scale at which stop-MDA decisions are made will be a key driver in how rapidly national programmes can scale down active intervention upon achieving the epidemiological targets for elimination. Methods We use two onchocerciasis models (EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM) to predict the likelihood of achieving elimination by 2030 in Africa, accounting for variation in pre-intervention endemicity levels and histories of ivermectin treatment. We explore how decision-making at contrasting geographical scales (community vs. larger scale ‘project’) changes projections on populations still requiring MDA or transitioning to post-treatment surveillance. Results The total population considered grows from 118 million people in 2020 to 136 million in 2030. If stop-MDA decisions are made at project level, the number of people requiring treatment declines from 69-118 million in 2020 to 59-118 million in 2030. If stop-MDA decisions are made at community level, the numbers decline from 23-81 million in 2020 to 15-63 million in 2030. The lower estimates in these predictions intervals are based on ONCHOSIM, the upper limits on EPIONCHO-IBM. Discussion/Conclusions The geographical scale at which stop-MDA decisions are made strongly determines how rapidly national onchocerciasis programmes can scale down MDA programmes. Stopping in portions of project areas or transmission zones would free up human and economic resources.

Occurrence of Phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in the northeastern plain of Italy

BackgroundRecent climate and environmental changes have resulted in the geographical expansion of MediterraneanLeishmania infantumvectors towards northern latitudes and higher altitudes in different European countries, including Italy, where new foci of canine leishmaniasis have been observed in the northern part of the country. Northern Italy is also an endemic area for mosquito-borne diseases. During entomological surveillance for West Nile virus, mosquitoes and other hematophagous insects were collected, including Phlebotomine sand flies. In this study, we report the results of Phlebotomine sand fly identification during the entomological surveillance conducted from 2017 to 2019.MethodsThe northeastern plain of Italy was divided by a grid with a length of 15 km, and a CO2-CDC trap was placed in each geographical unit. The traps were placed ~ 15 km apart. For each sampling site, geographical coordinates were recorded. The traps were operated every two weeks, from May to November. Sand flies collected by CO2-CDC traps were identified by morphological and molecular analysis.ResultsFrom 2017 to 2019, a total of 303 sand flies belonging to the speciesPhlebotomus perniciosus(n = 273),Sergentomyia minuta(n = 5),P. mascittii(n = 2) andP. perfiliewi(n = 2) were collected, along with 21 unidentified specimens. The trend forP. perniciosuscollected during the entomological surveillance showed two peaks, one in July and a smaller one in September. Sand flies were collected at different altitudes, from −2 m above sea level (a.s.l.) to 145 m a.s.l. No correlation was observed between altitude and sand fly abundance.ConclusionsFour Phlebotomine sand fly species are reported for the first time from the northeastern plain of Italy. Except forS. minuta, the sand fly species are competent vectors ofLeishmaniaparasites and other arboviruses in the Mediterranean Basin. These findings demonstrate the ability of sand flies to colonize new environments previously considered unsuitable for these insects. Even though the density of the Phlebotomine sand fly population in the plain areas is consistently lower than that observed in hilly and low mountainous areas, the presence of these vectors could herald the onset of epidemic outbreaks of leishmaniasis and other arthropod-borne diseases in areas previously considered non-endemic.

Improving probabilistic infectious disease forecasting through coherence

With an estimated $10.4 billion in medical costs and 31.4 million outpatient visits each year, influenza poses a serious burden of disease in the United States. To provide insights and advance warning into the spread of influenza, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) runs a challenge for forecasting weighted influenza-like illness (wILI) at the national and regional level. Many models produce independent forecasts for each geographical unit, ignoring the constraint that the national wILI is a weighted sum of regional wILI, where the weights correspond to the population size of the region. We propose a novel algorithm that transforms a set of independent forecast distributions to obey this constraint, which we refer to as probabilistically coherent. Enforcing probabilistic coherence led to an increase in forecast skill for 79% of the models we tested over multiple flu seasons, highlighting the importance of respecting the forecasting system’s geographical hierarchy.

Naming the Red River — becoming a Vietnamese river

This study of river names seeks to deepen our understanding of the pre-modern environmental history of northern Vietnam. A performative practice, naming places often reveals the transformation of a physical environment into a cultural one. By analysing the names given to antecedents of the Red River in northern Vietnam, this article argues that each historical name reflected its users’ perception of their relationship with a respective river. Toponyms like Lô, Phú Lương, Nhị, and ‘Great River’, therefore, did not simply represent the present-day Red River — a geographical unit that dates to the French colonial period.

Formulas for calculating ice cover thickness on selected spring lakes on the upper Radunia (Kashubian Lakeland, northern Poland)

This publication is to confirm the existence of a correlation between lakes under hydrometric supervision and unmonitored lakes using formulas for calculating thickness of ice cover observed on lakes located within the same physico-geographical unit. The article presented herein covers lakes located on the upper Radunia River in the central part of the Kashubian Lakeland. Lake Raduńskie Górne has been under constant hydrometric supervision of the Limnological Station of Gdańsk University for over 60 years. The study covers three spring lakes: Stężyckie, Bukrzyno Małe and Lubowisko. The cover thickness was measured during the period of 2003-2006 and in 2016. Analysing the measurement data gathered during field research and the data obtained from the station allowed formulas for calculating ice cover thickness to be established. The formulas were tested in 2016 with the use of the fieldwork data. The result confirmed that the formulas can be used to calculate thickness of ice cover with considerable accuracy.

‘Give us back our eleven days’: Brexit or Breaksit?

A major adjustment to the British calendar occurred in 1752. This was the passage from the Julian calendar to the Gregorian, inaugurated in the sixteenth century by command of Pope Gregory XIII in the papal dominions, and swiftly followed by much of the rest of Europe. The consequent loss of eleven days in the ‘new style’ British calendar seems to have provoked a riot. The alternative calendars had been the source of complication in trade and trade agreements and had led to friction in everyday exchange. Within the United Kingdom, the contention about jurisdiction over time and its measurement was momentarily as live as the wars over space. Brexit is a contention about who has the power to regulate the laws of the geographical unit that is the island of Great Britain, and whether authority may be devolved to a larger political entity. Thus, at least in part, it is a dispute as to whether this administrative authority may be extended in ever finer detail. The measurement of time is an infinite approximation, as knowledge of the movements of the heavenly bodies becomes ever more precise and the ability to time these more exact with finer and more accurate methods.