Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Guatemala

Objectives. To describe excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Guatemala during 2020 by week, age, sex, and place of death. Methods. We used mortality data from 2015 to 2020, gathered through the vital registration system of Guatemala. We calculated weekly mortality rates, overall and stratified by age, sex, and place of death. We fitted a generalized additive model to calculate excess deaths, adjusting for seasonality and secular trends and compared excess deaths to the official COVID-19 mortality count. Results. We found an initial decline of 26% in mortality rates during the first weeks of the pandemic in 2020, compared with 2015 to 2019. These declines were sustained through October 2020 for the population younger than 20 years and for deaths in public spaces and returned to normal from July onward in the population aged 20 to 39 years. We found a peak of 73% excess mortality in mid-July, especially in the population aged 40 years or older. We estimated a total of 8036 excess deaths (95% confidence interval = 7935, 8137) in 2020, 46% higher than the official COVID-19 mortality count. Conclusions. The extent of this health crisis is underestimated when COVID-19 confirmed death counts are used. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print September 23, 2021: e1–e8. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306452 )

Rapid mortality surveillance using a national population register to monitor excess deaths during SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in South Africa

This paper describes how an up-to-date national population register recording deaths by age and sex, whether deaths were due to natural or unnatural causes, and the offices at which the deaths were recorded can be used to monitor excess death during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, both nationally, and sub-nationally, in a country with a vital registration system that is neither up to date nor complete. Apart from suggesting an approach for estimating completeness of reporting at a sub-national level, the application produces estimates of the number of deaths in excess of those expected in the absence of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic that are highly correlated with the confirmed number of COVID-19 deaths over time, but at a level 2.5 to 3 times higher than the official numbers of COVID-19 deaths. Apportioning the observed excess deaths more precisely to COVID, COVID-related and collateral deaths, and non-COVID deaths averted by interventions with reduced mobility and gatherings, etc., requires access to real-time cause-of-death information. It is suggested that the transition from ICD-10 to ICD-11 should be used as an opportunity to change from a paper-based system to electronic capture of the medical cause-of-death information.

Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Philadelphia

Objectives. To estimate excess all-cause mortality in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, during the COVID-19 pandemic and understand the distribution of excess mortality in the population. Methods. With a Poisson model trained on recent historical data from the Pennsylvania vital registration system, we estimated expected weekly mortality in 2020. We compared these estimates with observed mortality to estimate excess mortality. We further examined the distribution of excess mortality by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Results. There were an estimated 3550 excess deaths between March 22, 2020, and January 2, 2021, a 32% increase above expectations. Only 77% of excess deaths (n=2725) were attributed to COVID-19 on the death certificate. Excess mortality was disproportionately high among older adults and people of color. Sex differences varied by race/ethnicity. Conclusions. Excess deaths during the pandemic were not fully explained by COVID-19 mortality; official counts significantly undercount the true death toll. Far from being a great equalizer, the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated preexisting disparities in mortality by race/ethnicity. Public Health Implications. Mortality data must be disaggregated by age, sex, and race/ethnicity to accurately understand disparities among groups. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print June 10, 2021: e1–e6. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306285 )

Development of definitions of suicidal behaviours

This chapter covers definitions of suicidal behaviours and how they vary over time, reflecting predominant philosophies and schools of thought. The limitations in the quality of information about suicide mortality, as a common feature affecting the whole vital registration system, are discussed. The smaller the coverage a country receives, the greater the probability of distortions, which adds to any previous distortions already flawing the data. It should be strongly emphasized that these shortcomings affect the system as a whole, and hence all causes of death. However, suicidologists seem to be much more punctilious about under-reporting of suicide, and the essential unreliability of this information, than experts dealing with mortality from other causes. Coordinated efforts should be made to strengthen those systems, paying attention to the specificity of sociocultural factors’ influence on defining, recording, and reporting suicide as a cause of death.

Suicide Mortality in Foreign Residents of Japan

Suicide is a major public health issue in Japan, with very high rates of death compared to other countries in the Asia Pacific. Foreigners living in Japan may be at increased risk of suicide, but little is known about how their risk of suicide differs from that of their country of origin or Japanese nationals. We used data on suicide mortality from the Japan Vital Registration System for the period 2012–2016 to analyze risk of suicide mortality in Japan for Japanese, Korean, Chinese, and other nationalities living in Japan, adjusting for age and separately by sex. We estimated standardized mortality rates using both the Japanese population as a reference, and also the population of the home nation of the foreign residents. We found that Korean nationals living in Japan have significantly higher mortality rates than Japanese nationals, and that the suicide mortality rate of Korean nationals living in Japan is higher than in their home country, but that this is not the case for Chinese or other nationals resident in Japan. Koreans living in Japan have a very high risk of mortality due to suicide which may reflect the special social, economic, and cultural pressures they face as a marginalized population in Japan.

Trends in Suicide Mortality by Method from 1979 to 2016 in Japan

Suicide is a major public health concern in Japan. This study aimed to characterize the trends in suicide mortality in Japan by method since 1979. Using data from the Japan vital registration system, we calculated age-standardized rates of suicide mortality separately by sex and method. We conducted a log-linear regression of suicide mortality rates separately by sex, and linear regression analysis of the proportion of deaths due to hanging, including a test for change in level and trend in 1998. While crude suicide rates were static over the time period, age-adjusted rates declined. The significant increase in suicide mortality in 1998 was primarily driven by large changes in the rate of hanging, with suicide deaths after 1998 having 36.7% higher odds of being due to hanging for men (95% CI: 16.3–60.8%), and 21.9% higher odds of being due to hanging for women (95% CI: 9.2–35.9%). Hanging has become an increasingly important method for committing suicide over the past 40 years, and although suicide rates have been declining continuously over this time, more effort is needed to prevent hanging and address the potential cultural drivers of suicide if the rate is to continue to decline in the future.

Trends in Diabetes Mortality by Gender in Urban and Rural Areas in China From 2003 to 2012: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

We aimed to provide updated estimates for the trends and the effects attributable to age, period, and cohort by gender in urban and rural areas in China. The data were based on the vital registration system in China from 2003 to 2012. The annual percentage change used Joinpoint Regression Analysis. Spline functions were fitted to the age-period-cohort analysis. The average age-adjusted diabetes mortality rate was higher in women than in men, and it was higher in urban than in rural residents among both genders. The trend analysis of diabetes showed a favorable pattern among urban residents in both genders. Mortality increased with age, and compared with period and cohort effects, age effects were the most important risk factor in diabetes mortality. Although the overall trends in diabetes mortality decelerated, aging and rural-urban differences could still be driving the epidemic underlining a continued need for the priorities for health care programs to focus on predictors in diabetes mortality.

A NOVEL METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH OF ESTIMATING URBAN POPULATION IN NIGERIA

The primary source of population data in Nigeria is the census despite its inconsistency. Consequently, efforts made to estimate population from such census figures and sometimes vital registration system has proved inadequate because of diverse problems. This study is aimed at developing a technique of population estimation in Nigeria using symptomatic data. The data for this study were collected through survey method, immunization and school enrolment data were collected from the Expanded Programme on Immunization and Ministry of Education, respectively. The average number of people per house or crowding index (CI) for Kabba was combined with immunization and school enrolment to establish a relationship which was subsequently used in regression analysis to estimate population. The results show that the population of Kabba and Kogi State were 70,870 and 4,230,382, respectively. The study recommended that the model can be used for population estimation in Nigeria and in places that have similar population data generation problems.