Trends in Diabetes Mortality in Urban and Rural China, 1987–2019: A Joinpoint Regression Analysis

PurposeDiabetes mellitus is emerging as an epidemic worldwide, and the incidence and prevalence of diabetes have drastically changed in China over the past 30 years, but data on its mortality rate are scarce. This study aimed to analyze the time trends of mortality rates among patients with diabetes in the rural and urban population in China between 1987 and 2019.MethodsThe research data come from China’s annual report on national health statistics and the Chinese Health Statistics Yearbook. Age-standardized mortality rates were calculated by using the direct method based on the World Standard Population from the WHO. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to estimate the annual percent change and average annual percentage changes of mortality rates of diabetes mellitus.ResultsAn overall trend for increment in diabetes mortality was observed. The crude mortality rates and age-standardized mortality rates of diabetes for urban and rural residents in China showed a significant increasing trend between 1987 and 2019. Mortality due to diabetes in urban areas has been higher than in rural areas for 30 years. However, due to the rapid increase of rural diabetes mortality in the past decade, the gap between the two gradually narrowed. The age-standardized mortality rates of diabetes increased by about 38.5% in urban areas and 254.9% in rural areas over the whole study period. In addition, the age-standardized mortality rate of females with diabetes was higher than that of males, but this pattern began to change in urban areas in 2012. Finally, the age-standardized mortality rates in the elderly population in China are higher with a faster growth rate, especially in rural areas.ConclusionThe mortality rate of diabetes is on the rise in China. The rapid growth of the mortality rate of diabetes in rural areas leads to the reduction of the urban–rural gap. Male mortality rates in urban areas have surpassed those of women. At the same time, the mortality rate of diabetes showed obvious elder-group orientation. As China’s population ages, the burden of death and disability caused by diabetes and its complications will continue to increase. These results indicate that diabetes has become a significant public health problem in China. Such an effect increases the demand for strategies aimed at the prevention and treatment of diabetes mellitus. In addition to the prevention and intervention of diabetes in high-risk groups, it is also necessary to establish diabetes screening networks to identify patients with mild symptoms. Early detection and timely intervention can effectively reduce the incidence and mortality of diabetes.

Trends in infective endocarditis mortality in the United Kingdom and EU 15+ countries between 1990–2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases database

Background Infective Endocarditis (IE) is a relatively uncommon but lethal condition, with no convincing evidence to date of improving mortality trends (1). The epidemiology of IE is complex, driven by a wide range of constantly evolving factors. While marked international variation has been recently reported (2), temporal trends in mortality over recent decades remain unclear. Purpose To describe trends in IE mortality in high income countries over the last 30 years. Methods Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) for IE, stratified by sex, were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database (3) between 1990 and 2019. The United Kingdom and selected countries with comparable health expenditure (EU15+ countries) were included. Relative changes in ASMR over the observation period were determined and trends were analysed using Joinpoint regression analysis. Results Between 1990–2019 ASMR from IE increased for both sexes in all included countries except Finland (−20.1% in males, −15.1% in females) and Austria (−8.98% in males, −22.6% in females). The largest increase in ASMR in males was observed in Greece (+197%), while the largest increase in females was observed in Italy (246%). Joinpoint regression analysis identified multiple significant trends within this observation period (Figure 1; clear squares indicate males, filled circles indicate females and lines represent modelled trends based on joinpoint data). At the end of the observation period the Netherlands had the highest ASMR in both males and females (2.28/100,000 in males and 2.37/100,000 in females), while Finland had the lowest ASMR in both males and females (0.45/100,000 and 0.23/100,000 respectively). Conclusions Significant international variation in IE mortality rates were observed. While mortality from IE has generally increased over the last 30 years, recent data suggest this trend may now be plateauing or even reversing in certain countries. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None. Figure 1

Are Chilean Pasture Seed End-Users Adopting New Species? Trends and Joinpoint Regression Analysis of the Last 19 Years of Seed Imports

Pastures are important for the agricultural sector as forage, recreational and sports systems. The Chilean pasture seed market is highly dependent on introduced genetics; however, the effect of climate change and market conditions can modify pasture options. The objective of this study was to quantify changes of the pasture seeds sown by Chilean end-users, as metric tons (Mt) or proportion of the total (PT), based on 19 years of imported seed. The Mann–Kendall test and joinpoint regression analysis were used to estimate the overall trends and the average annual percent change (AAPC) for the whole period, respectively. The total imported Mt had an increasing trend and AAPC (+5.7%), wherein a large PT corresponded to ryegrasses (Lolium spp.) (0.681), with increasing trends for Mt and PT. Clovers (Trifolium spp.) had decreasing trends and AAPC (−2.9% for Mt and −9.6% for PT). For PT, the main species was perennial ryegrass (L. perenne L.) (0.357), with increasing trends for Mt. As Mt, a positive AAPC was found for plantain (P. lanceolata L.) (+17.4%) and chicory (C. intybus L.) (+63.2%). Over a period of 19 years, based on Mt but not PT, Chilean end-users have been adopting new pasture species with a decreasing use of Trifolium spp.

Changing trends in liver transplantation indications in Saudi Arabia: from hepatitis C virus infection to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Background Several trend analyses on liver transplantation (LT) indications have been published in the U.S. and in other countries, but there are limited data on LT indication trends in Saudi Arabia (SA), especially since the availability of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV). This study aimed to analyze trends in the frequency of LT indications among LT recipients in SA over a 19-year period and examine associations between etiologic-specific trends and clinicodemographic characteristics. Methods This retrospective study analyzed clinical and surgical data of adult patients (n = 1009) who underwent LT at the King Faisal Specialist Hospital & Research Center (Riyadh, SA) between 2001 and 2019. Spearman’s rank correlation, Poisson regression, and Joinpoint regression analysis were employed to assess changes in LT etiologic trends. Results In the first period (2001–2010), the main LT indications were HCV (41.9%) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) (21.1%), but nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) (29.7%) surpassed HCV (23.7%) as the leading LT indication in the second period (2011–2019); and the trends were significant in correlation analyses [incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.09 (1.06–1.13) for NASH; IRR = 0.93 (0.91–0.95) for HCV]. In the Joinpoint regression analysis, increases in NASH from 2006 to 2012 (+ 32.1%) were statistically significant, as were the decreases in HCV from 2004 to 2007 (− 19.6%) and from 2010 to 2019 (− 12.1%). Similar patterns were observed in LT etiological comparisons before and after the availability of DAAs and within hepatocellular carcinoma stratifications. Conclusions Trends in the epidemiology of LT indications among LT recipients in SA have changed over a 19-year period. Most notably, NASH has eclipsed HCV in the country due to the effective treatment strategies for HCV. These trends in NASH now need an aggressive public health response to minimize and avert future onset of additional clinical and economic strains on health care systems and LT centers in SA.

Trends in primary gallbladder cancer incidence and incidence-based mortality in the United States, 1973 to 2015.

e16133 Background: Primary gallbladder carcinoma (GBC) is the most common biliary tract cancer with poor survival despite aggressive treatment. The purpose of our study was to investigate the trends of GBC incidence and incidence-based mortality (IBM), as well as to identify the factors responsible for any observed changes. Methods: GBC cases diagnosed between 1973 and 2015 were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (SEER) database. Incidence and IBM rates age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population were calculated and were stratified according to population and tumor-associated characteristics. Joinpoint Regression Analysis program was used to calculate the annual percent changes (APCs) for trend analysis. Results: Among the 10,792 patients with GBC, there was a predominance of white (81%) and female (71%) patients. The overall incidence rate was 1.086 (95% CI: 1.065 to 1.106) and the overall IBM rate was 0.995 (95% CI: 0.976 to 1.015). GBC incidence decreased by 1.645% (95% CI: 1.448 to 1.842, p < 0.001) per year, but the decreasing trend was only statistically significant from 1973 to 2002, after which the incidence rates stabilized. Conversely, IBM decreased by 1.689% (95% CI: 1.217 to 2.159, p < 0.001) per year from 1980 to 2015; the degree of decline in IBM rates during 1997-2015 (-1.194, 95% CI: -1.680 to -0.705, p < 0.001) was lower compared to that during 1980-1997 (-3.132, 95% CI: -3.682 to -2.578, p < 0.001). Mortality rates of GBC decreased in all age groups and in all races except for African American. There was a significant decrease in IBM in all SEER stages of GBC, except for distant stage GBC. Conclusions: GBC incidence and IBM rates have been decreasing over the last 40 years. However, the decrease in incidence and IBM appeared to have plateaued in the last two decades. The roles of increasing widespread use of laparoscopic cholecystectomy and use of newer treatment modalities, such as adjuvant chemotherapy and radiation, need to be investigated further.[Table: see text]