Stochastic Generator of Earthquakes for Mainland France

Mainland France is characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity, yet it is known that major earthquakes could strike this territory (e.g., Liguria in 1887 or Basel in 1356). Assessing this French seismic hazard is thus necessary in order to support building codes and to lead prevention actions towards the population. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is the classical approach used to estimate the seismic hazard. One way to apply PSHA is to generate synthetic earthquakes by propagating information from past seismicity and building various seismic scenarios. In this paper, we present an implementation of a stochastic generator of earthquakes and discuss its relevance to mimic the seismicity of low-to-moderate seismic areas. The proposed stochastic generator produces independent events (main shocks) and their correlated seismicity (only aftershocks). Main shocks are simulated first in time and magnitude considering all available data in the area, and then localized in space with the use of a probability map and regionalization. Aftershocks are simulated around main shocks by considering both the seismic moment ratio and distribution of the aftershock’s proportion. The generator is tested with mainland France data.

Dynamic analysis of earth dam using numerical method – a case study: Doyraj earth dam

The precise study of the response of earth dams to earthquakes is one of the most complex issues in the field of soil structures. In this research, dynamic analysis of earth dam structures (a case study: Doyraj dam in the west of Iran) have been performed using 2D Finite Difference Method (2D F.D.M.). The aim of this study is to investigate accelerations, lateral (horizontal) and vertical displacements (i.e. settlements) due to earthquake occurrence. The results of dynamic analysis indicate that the performance of the dam is satisfactory for each one of the seismic scenarios considered in this investigation. The maximum settlements at the dam crest is considerably smaller than that of the dam freeboard, with maximum value of 540 mm, which is comparable to recommendation of the Department of Safety of Dams (DSOD). Depth of sliding surfaces is better shown in the Finn model, and the settlements based on the Finn model is about 2.5 times higher than that of Mohr model. In contrast to what is commonly accepted about earthquake acceleration (the increase in earthquake acceleration from the base to the top of the dam), it cannot generalize to all cases, and it can be limited to very strong dams or can be related to poor earthquakes.

The Performance of Preloaded Bolts in Seismically Prequalified Steel Joints in a Fire Scenario

Seismically pre-qualified beam-to-column joints guarantee large ductility in seismic scenarios thanks to the effectiveness of the design rules and technological requirements that are devoted to avoiding the failure of brittle components (i.e., bolts and welds). However, their performance under different severe actions like those induced by fire has not been properly investigated. Therefore, a parametric study based on finite element simulations has been carried out with the aim to verify the effectiveness of local details of seismically prequalified joints under fire. Finite element analyses were carried out on beam-to-column assemblies sub-structured from a reference archetype building accounting for both material and geometrical imperfections. The bolts’ internal actions were monitored in all the investigated specimens varying the applied vertical loads. The results show that the seismic design rules adopted to size the bolts are effective to resist the large increase in shear forces in the bolts occurring under fire. Thus, the investigated joints provide satisfactory ductility and rotation capacity at high temperature preventing the failure of bolts; further analysis could be conducted to investigated the fire performance of the investigated joints in a seismic scenario.

Physical stratigraphy and geotechnical properties controlling the local seismic response in explosive volcanic settings: the Stracciacappa maar (central Italy)

Nowadays, policies addressed to prevention and mitigation of seismic risk need a consolidated methodology finalised to the assessment of local seismic response in explosive volcanic settings. The quantitative reconstruction of the subsoil model provides a key instrument to understand how the geometry and the internal architecture of outcropping and buried geological units have influence on the propagation of seismic waves. On this regard, we present a multidisciplinary approach in the test area of the Stracciacappa maar (Sabatini Volcanic District, central Italy), with the aim to reconstruct its physical stratigraphy and to discuss how subsoil heterogeneities control the 1D and 2D local seismic response in such a volcanic setting. We first introduce a new multidisciplinary dataset, including geological (fieldwork and log from a 45-m-thick continuous coring borehole), geophysical (electrical resistivity tomographies, single station noise measurements, and 2D passive seismic arrays), and geotechnical (simple shear tests performed on undisturbed samples) approaches. Then, we reconstruct the subsoil model for the Stracciacappa maar in terms of vertical setting and distribution of its mechanical lithotypes, which we investigate for 1D and 2D finite element site response analyses through the application of two different seismic scenarios: a volcanic event and a tectonic event. The numerical modelling documents a significant ground motion amplification (in the 1–1.5 Hz range) revealed for both seismic scenarios, with a maximum within the centre of the maar. The ground motion amplification is related to both 1D and 2D phenomena including lithological heterogeneity within the upper part of the maar section and interaction of direct S-waves with Rayleigh waves generated at edges of the most superficial lithotypes. Finally, we use these insights to associate the expected distribution of ground motion amplification with the physical stratigraphy of an explosive volcanic setting, with insights for seismic microzonation studies and local seismic response assessment in populated environments.

Documenting Earthquakes in the United States of the Ionian Islands, 1815–1864

The seven islands of Corfu, Paxoi, Kephalonia, Ithaca, Lefkada, Zakynthos, and Cythera (Ionian Sea, offshore western Greece) were a British protectorate with the name of “United States of the Ionian Islands” between 1815 and 1864. Although many earthquake studies have already examined the past seismicity of this area, they contain only a few data for a handful of earthquakes, for an area known to be characterized by a high level of seismicity. Against this fragmentary seismological knowledge stands a 50 yr abundant production of local documentary sources of different types and in diverse languages. For this reason and because most of the available sources had not been yet nor systematically looked into in the search for testimonies of earthquake effects, an ad hoc and comprehensive investigation was carried out. The number of records on earthquake effects is huge as well as unexpected, and the quality of the collected records is high. The 147 new macroseismic European Macroseismic Scale 1998 intensity values, accurately assigned on the basis of independent contemporary records only, are presented in the form of timelines of earthquake effects for the main towns of the four islands of Corfu, Kephalonia, Lefkada, and Zakynthos. Besides partially amending the gaps of the knowledge of these 50 yr of seismicity in the Ionian Islands, the great amount of freshly collected data suggests that historical seismological research may effectively contribute to improving the seismic scenarios of past earthquakes in many areas of the world.

Stochastic generator of earthquakes in French territories

<p>Both French mainland and Lesser Antilles are characterized by sparse earthquake catalogues respectively due to the low-to-moderate seismic activity and the low recording historical depth. However, it is known that major earthquakes could strike French mainland (e.g. Ligure in 1887 or Basel in 1356) and even more French Lesser Antilles (e.g. Guadeloupe 1943 or Martinique 1839). Assessing seismic hazard in these territories is necessary to support building codes and prevention actions to population. One approach to estimate seismic hazard despite lack of data is to generate a set of plausible seismic scenarios over a large time span. A generator of earthquakes is thus presented in this paper. Its first step is to generate only main shocks. The second step consists of trigger aftershocks related to main shocks.<br>To draw the time occurrence of main shocks, original draw of frequencies and year-by-year summation of it is proceeded. The frequencies are drawn, for each magnitude step, in probability density functions computed through the inter event time method (Hainzl et al. 2006). By propagating magnitude uncertainties contained in the initial catalogue through a Monte Carlo Markov Chain, each magnitude step has not only one main shock frequency but a distribution of it. Once a main shock is temporally drawn, its 2D location is drawn thanks to the cumulative seismic moment recorded on each 5x5 km cell in the French territories. A seismotectonic zoning is used to limit both the spatial distribution and magnitude of large earthquakes. Finally, the other parameters (strike, dip, rake and depth) are drawn in ranges of values depending on the seismotectonic zone where the main shock is located. <br>For purpose of trigger aftershocks from the main shocks, an approximation of the Bath law (Richter 1958; Båth 1965) is proceeded during the computation of the frequency – magnitude distributions. Thus, for each magnitude step, an α–value distribution is obtained in which, for each main shock an α–value is drawn. In this way, the maximal magnitude of triggered aftershocks is known.</p>

A multi-scenario assessment of the seismogenic tsunami hazard for Bangladesh

Purpose This paper aims to describe a multi-scenario assessment of the seismogenic tsunami hazard for Bangladesh from active subduction zones in the Indian Ocean region. Two segments of the Sunda arc, namely, Andaman and Arakan, appear to pose a tsunamigenic seismic threat to Bangladesh. Design/methodology/approach High-resolution numerical simulations of tsunami propagation toward the coast of Bangladesh have been carried out for eight plausible seismic scenarios in Andaman and Arakan subduction zones. The numerical results have been analyzed to obtain the spatial variation of the maximum tsunami amplitudes as well as tsunami arrival times for the entire coastline of Bangladesh. Findings The results suggest that the tsunami heights are amplified on either side of the axis of the submarine canyon which approaches the nearshore sea off Barisal in the seaboard off Sundarban–Barisal–Sandwip. Moreover, the computed tsunami amplitudes are comparatively higher north of the latitude 21.5o in the Teknaf–Chittagong coastline. The calculated arrival times indicate that the tsunami waves reach the western half of the Sundarban–Barisal–Sandwip coastline sooner, while shallow water off the eastern half results in a longer arrival time for that part of the coastline, in the event of an earthquake in the Andaman seismic zone. On the other hand, most parts of the Chittagong–Teknaf coastline would receive tsunami waves almost immediately after an earthquake in the northern segment of the Arakan seismic zone. Originality/value The present assessment includes probabilistic measures of the tsunami hazard by incorporating several probable seismic scenarios corresponding to recurrence intervals ranging from 25 years to over 1,000 years.