All Options Are on the Table? Time Horizons and the Decision-Making Process in Conflict

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rotem Dvir
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Policy Options ◽  
International Conflicts ◽  
Two Phase ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Choice Sets ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Choice Set

Abstract This study explores how time horizons shape the decision-making process in international conflicts. I posit that leaders assess only a subset of the available policy options. The proposed decision-making model suggests that time horizons serve as a screening mechanism. Only policies that fit the actor's time horizon enter the choice set and can be eventually selected. Thus, variations in actors’ time horizons generate different choice sets in terms of size and composition. These different choice sets affect the identity of the selected policy. Using a two-phase experiment, I demonstrate that short time horizons reduce the choice set size and the type of options that are considered. The selection of the final policy is sensitive to the inherent trade-off in policy implications and to the composition of the choice set. These findings clarify the influence of time horizons on conflict choices within a two-phase decision process. It also explains why, facing international conflicts, political leaders are not likely to place all policy options “on the table.”

The Normalization of Consumer Valuations: Context-Dependent Preferences From Neurobiological Constraints

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan Webb ◽  
Paul W. Glimcher ◽  
Kenway Louie
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Discrete Choice ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Judgment And Decision Making ◽  
Choice Behaviour ◽  
Divisive Normalization ◽  
Choice Sets ◽  
Observed Behaviour ◽  
The Brain ◽  
Choice Set

Consumer valuations are shaped by choice sets, exemplified by patterns of substitution between alternatives as choice sets are varied. Building on recent neuroeconomic evidence that valuations are transformed during the choice process, we incorporate the canonical divisive normalization computation into a discrete choice model and characterize how choice behaviour depends on both size and composition of the choice set. We then examine evidence for such behaviour from two choice experiments that vary the size and composition of the choice set. We find that divisive normalization more accurately captures observed behaviour than alternative models, including an example range normalization model. These results are robust across experimental paradigms. Finally, we demonstrate that Divisive Normalization implements an efficient means for the brain to represent valuations given neurobiological constraints, yielding the fewest choice errors possible given those constraints. This paper was accepted by Elke Weber, judgment and decision making.

The Effect of Dynamic and Static Choice Sets on Political Decision Making: An Analysis Using the Decision Board Platform

1997 ◽  
Vol 91 (3) ◽  
pp. 553-566 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Mintz ◽  
Nehemia Geva ◽  
Steven B. Redd ◽  
Amy Carnes
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategy Selection ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Choice Sets ◽  
Static Versus Dynamic ◽  
Political Decision Making ◽  
Choice Set

Previous studies of political decision making have used only “static” choice sets, where alternatives are “fixed” and are a priori known to the decision maker. We assess the effect of a dynamic choice set (new alternatives appear during the decision process) on strategy selection and choice in international politics. We suggest that decision makers use a mixture of decision strategies when making decisions in a two-stage process consisting of an initial screening of available alternatives, and a selection of the best one from the subset of remaining alternatives. To test the effects of dynamic and static choice sets on the decision process we introduce a computer-based “process tracer” in a study of top-ranking officers in the U.S. Air Force. The results show that (1) national security decision makers use a mixture of strategies in arriving at a decision, and (2) strategy selection and choice are significantly influenced by the structure of the choice set (static versus dynamic).

The Poliheuristic Theory of Crisis Decision Making and Applied Decision Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inbal Hakman ◽  
Alex Mintz ◽  
Steven B. Redd
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
High Stress ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Task ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Choice Sets ◽  
Stage Process ◽  
Choice Set

Poliheuristic theory addresses the “why” and “how” of decision making. It focuses on how decision makers use heuristics en route to choice by addressing both the process and the choice related to the decision task. More specifically, decision makers use a two-stage process wherein a more complicated choice set is reduced to one that is more manageable through the use of these heuristics, or cognitive shortcuts. In the second stage, decision makers are more likely to employ maximizing and analytical strategies in making a choice. Poliheuristic theory also focuses on the political consequences of decision making, arguing that decision makers will refrain from making politically costly decisions. While poliheuristic theory helps us better understand how decision makers process information and make choices, it does not specifically address how choice sets and decision matrices were created in the first place. Applied decision analysis (ADA) rectifies this shortcoming by focusing on how leaders create particular choice sets and matrices and then how they arrive at a choice. It does so by first identifying the decision maker’s choice set or decision matrix; that is, the alternatives or options available to choose from as well as the criteria or dimensions upon which the options will be evaluated. ADA then focuses on uncovering the decision maker’s decision code through the use of multiple decision models. Combining poliheuristic theory with ADA allows researchers to more fully explain decision making in general and crisis decision making in particular. An application of poliheuristic theory and ADA to decision making pertaining to the Fukushima nuclear disaster reveals that even in this high-stress crisis environment decision makers followed the two-stage process as predicted by poliheuristic theory. More specifically, in the first stage, decision makers simplified the decision task by resorting to cognitive heuristics (i.e., decision making shortcuts) to eliminate politically damaging alternatives such as voluntary evacuation. In the second stage, decision makers conducted a more analytical evaluation of the compulsory evacuation options.

scholarly journals RANCANG BANGUN SISTEM INFORMASI AKUNTANSI PENJUALAN DENGAN MODEL WATERFALL BERBASIS JAVA DESKTOP

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-22
Author(s):  
Nurul Muthia ◽  
Hilda Amalia ◽  
Ari Puspita ◽  
Ade Fitria Lestari
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information System ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Data Entry ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Accounting Information System ◽  
Transaction Process ◽  
Develop Software ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
Short Time

Every business entity is required to be able to improve their services to customers. With good service it will increase customer satisfaction so that it ultimately increases profits from the business entity itself. To be able to improve service to customers, business entities must be able to present an efficient and accurate sales transaction process. For this reason, sales information system design is needed. Sales accounting information system can streamline the sales transaction process and can produce sales reports that are more accurate and timely and able to record accounting transactions in a short time. Timely and accurate sales reports are needed for the decision making process for business entity owners. The research objective is to develop software using the waterfall device development method, so that it can produce software that is able to improve sales system work and increase profits. The design results of the sales information system using the waterfall method can reduce errors caused by human factors (avoiding human error), avoiding the combination of data entry and presentation of sales reports presented in a fast and precise time so as to help the owner to make the decision making process .

Choice overload in holiday destination choices

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen T. Thai ◽  
Ulku Yuksel
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Destination Choice ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Choice Overload ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Travel Destination ◽  
Travel Agents ◽  
Destination Choices ◽  
Choice Satisfaction ◽  
Choice Set

Purpose This research aims to investigates whether and why choice overload (CO) occurs when people select a vacation destination. Design/methodology/approach This is a two-group (large choice-set vs small choice-set) between-subject factorial design. Dependent variables representing CO-effects are post-choice satisfaction and regret. Choice confusion and choice uncertainty are mediators. Findings Relative to people choosing from a small destination portfolio, people who choose from a large portfolio are less satisfied and more regretful about their choice. Choosing from a large choice-set confuses people, which then makes them less certain about their choice, and subsequently, have less satisfaction and more regret about their decision. Practical implications A critical consideration is essential when providing a number of destination choices to tourists. A few destinations should be offered in a travel portfolio. If the number of destination offers must remain large, travel agents should cluster these offers based on a market segmentation analysis to ease the decision-making process for travellers. Originality/value The findings add to evidence of CO-effects to the current literature of travel destination choice, and contribute to CO literature by showing evidence of CO-effects in complex service contexts, especially in holiday destination choices. This study is the first to provide evidence of CO-effects at the early stages of the travel destination decision-making process; it uses hypothetical destinations to avoid potential confounds associated with real destinations; and it measures CO-effects via post-choice satisfaction and regret. In addition, while the only available study on CO in tourism (Park and Jang, 2013) does not explain why CO-effects occur, this research provides and explains the psychological underlying process of the CO phenomenon in destination choice-making.

Decision-Making Challenges of Women Entrepreneurship in Family Business Succession Process

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (04) ◽  
pp. 411-439 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veland Ramadani ◽  
Léo-Paul Dana ◽  
Nora Sadiku-Dushi ◽  
Vanessa Ratten ◽  
Dianne H. B. Welsh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Family Business ◽  
Succession Planning ◽  
Family Businesses ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Long Term Performance ◽  
Business Succession ◽  
Term Performance

The decision-making process concerning succession issues for family businesses is crucial as it affects long term performance and sustainability. However, while succession issues in family business has been extensively studied, the decision-making process for women-owned family businesses is sparse, particularly in transition economies. This is despite the growth of women-owned businesses worldwide. This study explores the succession decision-making process in women-owned small family businesses in Kosovo using a qualitative approach. The findings suggest that group decision making is important in family businesses and plays a role in determining how gender influences succession planning. Managerial and policy implications are discussed.

AAC Decision-Making and Mobile Technology: Points to Ponder

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 104-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary Ann Abbott ◽  
Debby McBride
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Mobile Technology ◽  
Communication System ◽  
Augmentative And Alternative Communication ◽  
Evaluation Process ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Alternative Communication ◽  
Ipod Touch ◽  
Feature Match

The purpose of this article is to outline a decision-making process and highlight which portions of the augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) evaluation process deserve special attention when deciding which features are required for a communication system in order to provide optimal benefit for the user. The clinician then will be able to use a feature-match approach as part of the decision-making process to determine whether mobile technology or a dedicated device is the best choice for communication. The term mobile technology will be used to describe off-the-shelf, commercially available, tablet-style devices like an iPhone®, iPod Touch®, iPad®, and Android® or Windows® tablet.

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