Recent decline in life expectancy at birth in Slovenia

For many decades, life expectancy at birth (e0) in Slovenia has been increasing at a very rapid pace. However, in 2015, e0 declined slightly; it recovered in 2016, but fell again in 2017 for women. In the same period, a pause in declining mortality was observed in numerous developed countries worldwide. It is too early to provide a thorough analysis and firm conclusions, but we shed some light on the topic by decomposing the observed decline in Slovenia by age and cause of death. In particular, using a life table model and life expectancy decomposition technique, we analyse what cause of death for what age group contributed the most to this decline in life expectancy at birth. We show that the main reason for the recent drop in life expectancy at birth in Slovenia was higher mortality due to external causes for men of all ages and due to neoplasms for women above 60 years and men above 50 years.

Impact of tax and tobacco-free generation on health-adjusted life years in the Solomon Islands: a multistate life table simulation

ObjectiveTo estimate health-adjusted life years (HALY) gained in the Solomon Islands for the 2016 population over the remainder of their lives, for three interventions: hypothetical eradication of cigarettes; 25% annual tax increases to 2025 such that tax represents 70% of sales price of tobacco; and a tobacco-free generation (TFG).DesignWe adapted an existing multistate life table model, using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and other data inputs, including diseases contributing >5% of the GBD estimated disability-adjusted life years lost in the Solomon Islands in 2016. Tax effects used price increases and price elasticities to change cigarette smoking prevalence. The TFG was modelled by no uptake of smoking among those 20 years and under after 2016.ResultsUnder business as usual (BAU) smoking prevalence decreased over time, and decreased faster under the tax intervention (especially for younger ages). For example, for 20-year-old males the best estimated prevalence in 2036 was 22.9% under BAU, reducing to 14.2% under increased tax. Eradicating tobacco in 2016 would achieve 1510 undiscounted HALYs per 1000 people alive in 2016, over the remainder of their lives. The tax intervention would achieve 370 HALYs per 1000 (24.5% of potential health gain), and the TFG 798 HALYs per 1000 people (52.5%). By time horizon, 10.5% of the HALY gains from tax and 8.0% from TFG occur from 2016 to 2036, and the remainder at least 20 years into the future.ConclusionThis study quantified the potential of two tobacco control policies over maximum health gains achievable through tobacco eradication in the Solomon Islands.

Incidence of First Abortions: Integration of Administrative and Survey Data within a Joint Cohort Life Table Model

IntroductionIntegration of administrative and survey data to address sources of error is a fast-growing area of research. This paper examines the case of abortion, where survey data are susceptible to self-report bias, while administrative data provide crude but comprehensive and relatively unbiased information. Objectives and ApproachAlthough abortion is a common and legal procedure, information is lacking on the proportion of women having one or more abortions during their lifetime. A Bayesian joint cohort life table model estimates age-specific rates of incidence of a first abortion for cohorts of women born between 1936 and 2003 an residing in England and Wales. The model is fitted using (1) waves II and III of the British National Surveys of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (NATSAL) and (2) administrative counts of first ever abortions published by the UK's Office for National Statistics and Department of Health. ResultsModel parameters controlling for underreporting indicate that survey reports are plausible for abortions occurring before the age of 20 years. Beyond that age, the model shows a fast increasing propensity to underreport abortions depending on the age at which they occurred. Underreporting also appears to be higher in NATSAL III. The study produces corrected estimates of the overall lifetime prevalence of an abortion in England and Wales, which is higher than previously thought. Conclusion/ImplicationsJoint modelling of survey and administrative data can provide robust statistics, while reducing the need for record linkage where it is not feasible or acceptable. This approach is relevant in other contexts to correct the bias of particular population datasets, when audit data exist (e.g. underascertained diagnoses/causes of death).

A life-table model estimation of the parr capacity of a late 19th century Puget Sound steelhead population

An age-structured life-cycle model of steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss) for the Stillaguamish River in Puget Sound, Washington, USA, was employed to estimate the number of age-1 steelhead parr that could have produced the estimated adult return of 69 000 in 1895. We then divided the estimated parr numbers by the estimated area of steelhead rearing habitat in the Stillaguamish River basin in 1895 and under current conditions to estimate density of rearing steelhead then and now. Scaled to estimates of total wetted area of tributary and mainstem shallow shoreline habitat, our historic estimates averaged 0.39–0.49 parr·m−2, and ranged from 0.24 to 0.7 parr·m−2. These values are significantly greater than current densities in the Stillaguamish (mainstem average: 0.15 parr·m−2, tributaries: 0.07 parr·m−2), but well within the range of recent estimates of steelhead parr rearing densities in high-quality habitats. Our results indicate that modest improvement in the capacity of mainstem and tributary rearing habitat in Puget Sound rivers will yield large recovery benefits if realized in a large proportion of the area of river basins currently accessible to steelhead.

Total Worklife Expectancy

This paper appends the standard Markov increment-decrement worklife expectancy model used in forensic economics to measure the years that people perform the non-market work of taking care of their homes or families. We find that adding non-market working years to the worklife model nearly equalizes men and women's estimated lifetime total working years. The paper begins with the gender-related problems of solely using labor force worklife tables as a tort compensation determinant. We then present demographic characteristics of persons that perform full-time, non-market work. A Markov life table model that incorporates two work activities (market and non-market work) is specified—we name the sum of market and non-market working years “total worklife expectancy.” Ending the paper are examples of using total worklife expectancy as a tort compensation estimator.