A Model for Prediction of the Buffalo and Cattle male Calves' live Weight

The buffalo and cattle population in Egypt reached about 4.898,893 and 3,476,396 heads, respectively, in 2019. The buffalo and cattle meat production represented around 43% and 45% of the total meat production in Egypt, respectively, and the average carcass weight of buffalo and cattle reached 318 kg and 336Kg in 2019. About 50% of livestock numbers are slaughtered off-slaughter houses due to a shortage in the capacity of slaughterhouses and other financial and administrative reasons. The conducted field survey of this study showed that the majority of Egyptian livestock markets lack live weight scales, and if available, they are expensive and frightening for the animals. Therefore, numerous feedlot enterprises hire an agent who can visually forecast the expected live weight of the exhibited feeder calves for sale in the market at a high charge. Most of the models to predict the weight of live cattle-bulls knowing the chest circumference were lacking such models for buffalo-bulls and were linear models that fit only limited periods of cattle-fattening. The sample survey included 500 buffalo males and 340 cattle males of different live weights from 14 villages in 4 provinces in the Nile Delta. The data were used to estimate the best-fitted model for Egyptian livestock. This study showed that the best-fitted model was curved linear. It was a quadratic form. For empirical application, the study designed a table to predict the live weight of buffalo and cattle males at a range of 100-200 cm chest circumference. The results showed that a 1% increase in the chest circumference was associated with a 2.4% and 2.8% increase in the buffalo and cattle male's circumference, which implicitly reflects higher live weight gain of cattle than buffalo males and better meat quality. Therefore, the farm price of cattle feeder males surpassed the buffalo by $1000.

COMPUTATIONAL TOOL FOR SELECTION AND RANKING OF PULL-TYPE FORAGE HARVESTERS

The variety of forage harvester models available on Brazilian market demand practical tools for selecting and ranking these equipments. The present study aimed at the elaboration of an algorithm capable of providing simple and objective criteria that assist in the decision making. The communication channel of the companies was used to obtain technical specifications and price of the equipment, which were tabulated in spreadsheets. The instructions for the manipulation of the obtained data were elaborated in the software R, being calculated ranks for the following requirements considering simulated information about a farm: price (COT), productivity and price relation (PROD.COT), fuel consumption (CONS), operational comfort (CONF), versatility (VERS) and overall (GERAL). We obtained information from 45 models belonging to 8 companies. The best machine in the overall rank got similar rank in the COT, PROD.COT and CONS ranks and worst rank for CONF. The algorithm established allowed the selection and ranking of the forage harvesters analyzed, providing simple, objective and easily interpreted criteria for the use of the farmers and the technicians who assist them.

The profitability analysis of rubber plantation in Batang Hari Regency and Sanggau Regency (Case study: Penerokan Village and Semoncol Village)

During 2009-2012 the price of rubber increased sharply, on the contrary during 2012-2018 the price decreased, and the farm price level in 2018 was lower than the average in 2009. The decline in rubber prices had an impact on the income of rubber farming. This study aims to analyze the changes in rubber prices on the performance of rubber farming and rubber farmers’ incomes The main data used is the ICASEPS’ Patanas database for 2009, 2012, and 2018. This study took cases in small-holder farmer in Penerokan Village (Batang Hari Regency, Jambi) and Semoncol Village (Sanggau Regency, West Kalimantan). Data analysis using R/C ratio. The results showed that the average price of rubber during 2009-2012 increased from IDR7,961/kg to IDR12,968/kg or increased by 62.9%, but in 2018 its decreased by an average of 45% to IDR6,875/kg and tended to decrease. Revenue from rubber farming during 2009, 2012 and 2019 in Penerokan was IDR12,974,000 respectively; IDR10,843,000 and IDR7,878,000 with an R/C ratio of 1.67; 1.87 and 1.67. Revenue from rubber farming in Semoncol 2009, 2012 and 2019 was IDR 10,656,000 respectively; IDR15,990,000 and IDR10,950,000 with an R/C ratio of 1.50; 2.00 and 1.29. The R/C ratio of rubber farming in both villages is more than 1, indicating that rubber farming is economically feasible. Household income in both locations still dominated by agricultural activities.

Marketing margins of aquaculture shrimp production in Kedah

Shrimp aquaculture has great potential for providing income and employment opportunities to farmers. Shrimp production can also contribute to economic growth given its high value and demand in Malaysia. However, it is often said that players in the marketing channel extract high margins for themselves. This study intends to verify this claim by examining a case study based on white leg shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) aquaculture in Kedah. The data for this study was obtained from a detailed study involving a shrimp retailer in Kedah. The marketing margins were calculated from the interviews of the farmer and the retailer. The results showed that the marketing channel was quite efficient because there was no large gap in the prices between the marketing channels. The difference between retail price and farm price is only RM7 per kilogram for the white shrimp which accounts for 43.75 percent of total farm price and represents the cost of bringing shrimps from the farm to the retail market.

Estimating Supply Response of Some Strategic Crops in Egypt Using ARDL Model

This paper estimated the areas of main cereal crops in Egypt (Wheat, Maize, Rice) supply response of farm price, area harvested and net revenue by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) methodology to define the integral relationship between the dependent variable and independent variables, both in the long and short-run, in addition to determining the magnitude of the impacts of all dependent variables on the dependent variable, Main findings indicate that farmgate price has a statistically significant impact on wheat, maize and rice cultivated areas. Impact of yield on wheat cultivated area proved insignificant, while proved statistically significant on maize and rice cultivated areas. Impact of net revenue on wheat and maize cultivated areas were significant but was insignificant in case of rice. Applying ARDL bounds test revealed a long-term relationship between all variables in the model for wheat, but not for maize and rice, the study used the data during the period (2000-2017).

Forecasting Model of Wheat Yield in Relation to Rainfall Variability in North Africa Countries

The study investigated the effect of rainfall variations on wheat yield in Morocco as a representative case study of North Africa region. The data were collected for the period 2004– 2015 from 12 meteorological stations. The wheat yield variability range was 79.5%-38.0%. It increased in poor-rain years and the regions of precipitation ≤ 350 mm. The wheat yield showed more significant response to monthly perception changes than the annual. The estimated forecasting model showed that March's rain was the critical month for wheat yield as the elasticity of production was 0.587. April and May showed an elasticity of 0.011 and 0.023, respectively. The estimated response of wheat farm price to grain yield showed that 10% increase in wheat yield would decrease the farm gate price by 4.1%, i.e. poor rainy seasons mean income foregone with the loss of inputs expenses and expansion in imported wheat. A country buffer stock, a regional strategic stock of wheat and supplementary water for irrigation in poor precipitation years are required.

PUBLIC GOODS VERSUS THE FARM PRICE-COST SQUEEZE: SHAPING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE EU’S COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

There is a consensus that farmers are subject to farm price-cost squeeze (PCS) when commodity prices fall and costs of production rise long-term. Willard Cochrane was the first to examine this phenomenon, introducing the notion that farmers are on a market treadmill. PCS is still a principle economic problem in agriculture touching farms in all over the world. It results from flexible prices but also from monopsony structures where recipients of commodities seize the opportunity of suboptimal pricing. Many studies indicate increasing retail farm price spreads but this lacks empirical studies on the effects of different types of subsidies on PCS. This work attempted to model EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) impact on PCS using the Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production function, specified as in most CGE models. However, the authors tested the assumption of flexible prices reacting to changes in productivity. This approach is novel, while supported with an input-output analysis used to precisely decompose price and volume (productivity) effects at the level of a FADN representative farm. The results help to shape CAP shedding light on the present treadmill mechanism and showing that provision of public goods may be a remedy for market imperfections, whereas decoupled payments have the opposite influence.