Impact of the Scandinavian pattern on long-lived cold surges over the South China Sea

This study investigates the influence of the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern on long-lived cold surges over the South China Sea (SCS). The results show that, different from the short-lived ones, the majority of long-lived cold surges over the SCS are preceded by a negative phase of quasi-stationary SCA pattern in the extratropics, which is characterized as a primary cyclonic center over the Scandinavian Peninsula and two anticyclonic ones over North Atlantic and central Siberia. This connection is mainly conducted through a continuous amplification of the high pressure anomalies over East Asia. On the other hand, the SCA-related anomalies also reveal identical responses as an increase in sea level pressure over East Asia and northerly flows over the SCS. Besides, the SCA pattern may influence the long-lived cold surges over the SCS by facilitating blocking occurrence through the extensive and quasi-stationary anticyclone over central Siberia. The present results have an implication for the extended weather forecast: The long-lasting circulation anomalies, such as the SCA pattern, can affect long-lasting weather phenomena in the regions which are located remotely in both the zonal and meridional directions, such as long-lived cold surges over the SCS.

Cold Surge Pathways in East Asia and Their Tropical Impacts

Cold surge occurrences are one of the robust features of winter monsoon in East Asia and are characterized by equatorward outbreaks of cold air from the high latitudes. Beside greatly affecting weather variability across the Far East, cold surges are of importance for Southeast Asian countries because they can propagate far to the tropics and excite convective activities. However, the tropical responses highly depend on the downstream pathways of the surges. To better understand how cold surges influence tropical weather, we investigate 160 cold surges identified using a quantitative approach during 40 winters from 1979/80 to 2018/19, and then classify them into several groups based on their prominent pathways. At the midlatitudes, we find two groups: one for surges that show clear equatorward propagation of cold air to lower latitudes and the other for surges that turn eastward and bring cold air to the North Pacific. These groups arise due to the strength difference of the Siberian high expansion controlled by cold air blocking near the Tibetan Plateau. The tropical impact is evident in the former group. We perform further classification on this group and find four types of surges based on their pathways in the low latitudes: 1) South China Sea (SCS) surges, 2) Philippines Sea (PHS) surges, 3) both SCS and PHS surges, and 4) blocked surges. They exhibit distinct precipitation signatures over the Maritime Continent, which are driven by interactions between the surges and the pre-existing synoptic conditions over the tropics, particularly the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO).

Evolution of Urban Haze in Greater Bangkok and Association with Local Meteorological and Synoptic Characteristics during Two Recent Haze Episodes

This present work investigates several local and synoptic meteorological aspects associated with two wintertime haze episodes in Greater Bangkok using observational data, covering synoptic patterns evolution, day-to-day and diurnal variation, dynamic stability, temperature inversion, and back-trajectories. The episodes include an elevated haze event of 16 days (14–29 January 2015) for the first episode and 8 days (19–26 December 2017) for the second episode, together with some days before and after the haze event. Daily PM2.5 was found to be 50 µg m−3 or higher over most of the days during both haze events. These haze events commonly have cold surges as the background synoptic feature to initiate or trigger haze evolution. A cold surge reached the study area before the start of each haze event, causing temperature and relative humidity to drop abruptly initially but then gradually increased as the cold surge weakened or dissipated. Wind speed was relatively high when the cold surge was active. Global radiation was generally modulated by cloud cover, which turns relatively high during each haze event because cold surge induces less cloud. Daytime dynamic stability was generally unstable along the course of each haze event, except being stable at the ending of the second haze event due to a tropical depression. In each haze event, low-level temperature inversion existed, with multiple layers seen in the beginning, effectively suppressing atmospheric dilution. Large-scale subsidence inversion aloft was also persistently present. In both episodes, PM2.5 showed stronger diurnality during the time of elevated haze, as compared to the pre- and post-haze periods. During the first episode, an apparent contrast of PM2.5 diurnality was seen between the first and second parts of the haze event with relatively low afternoon PM2.5 over its first part, but relatively high afternoon PM2.5 over its second part, possibly due to the role of secondary aerosols. PM2.5/PM10 ratio was relatively lower in the first episode because of more impact of biomass burning, which was in general agreement with back-trajectories and active fire hotspots. The second haze event, with little biomass burning in the region, was likely to be caused mainly by local anthropogenic emissions. These findings suggest a need for haze-related policymaking with an integrated approach that accounts for all important emission sectors for both particulate and gaseous precursors of secondary aerosols. Given that cold surges induce an abrupt change in local meteorology, the time window to apply control measures for haze is limited, emphasizing the need for readiness in mitigation responses and early public warning.

Atmospheric dynamics of extreme discharge events from 1979 to 2016 in the southern Central Andes

During the South-American Monsoon season, deep convective systems occur at the eastern flank of the Central Andes leading to heavy rainfall and flooding. We investigate the large- and meso-scale atmospheric dynamics associated with extreme discharge events (> 99.9th percentile) observed in two major river catchments meridionally stretching from humid to semi-arid conditions in the southern Central Andes. Based on daily gauge time series and ERA-Interim reanalysis, we made the following three key observations: (1) for the period 1940–2016 daily discharge exhibits more pronounced variability in the southern, semi-arid than in the northern, humid catchments. This is due to a smaller ratio of discharge magnitudes between intermediate (0.2 year return period) and rare events (20 year return period) in the semi-arid compared to the humid areas; (2) The climatological composites of the 40 largest discharge events showed characteristic atmospheric features of cold surges based on 5-day time-lagged sequences of geopotential height at different levels in the troposphere; (3) A subjective classification revealed that 80% of the 40 largest discharge events are mainly associated with the north-northeastward migration of frontal systems and 2/3 of these are cold fronts, i.e. cold surges. This work highlights the importance of cold surges and their related atmospheric processes for the generation of heavy rainfall events and floods in the southern Central Andes.

Influence of Siberian Blocking on Long-Lived Cold Surges over the South China Sea

Cold surges occur frequently over the South China Sea (SCS) in winter, and most of them last only a few days. However, some cold surge events can persist longer, for instance, more than 5 days. This study focuses on these long-lived cold surge events and investigates the associated extratropical circulation anomalies. The results indicate that long-lived cold surges, characterized as strong northerlies over the SCS, can be triggered by a successive high anomaly center over East Asia. Accompanying this is an anomalously extensive and quasi-stationary anticyclone over Siberia in the midtroposphere, hinting at a more frequent occurrence of Siberian blocking. Further analyses reveal that the blocking frequency is indeed significantly high over 90°–150°E from day −4 to day +2 relative to the onset of long-lived cold surge events. Furthermore, there exist significant correlations between the leading occurrence of Siberian blocking and the sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over East Asia, which are directly related to long-lived cold surges. The intensification of the high SLP anomaly over East Asia is found to mainly result from cold advection induced by the anomalous northerly winds along the southeastern edge of the Siberian blocking.

Pre-Signal and Influencing Sources of the Extreme Cold Surges at the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Competition Zones

The 24th Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games will take place in Beijing in 2022. All three competition zones are vulnerable to extreme cold surges (ECSs), owing to the occurrence of the East Asian winter monsoon. In this paper, a representative competition domain (37.5–42.5° N, 110–120° E) is adopted, with a view to avoiding the differences in both the geographies and the thresholds of ECSs among different zones by considering the probability of simultaneous occurrences. Since 2009, the ECSs in the domain have displayed higher frequency and extremity. Based on all ECS cases in the domain, the dominant circulation is revealed by a quasi “reverse-Ω” pattern, with two strong ridges over the east of the Ural Mountain and the Okhotsk Sea, and a broad, deep trough in East Asia. The influencing sources of the ECSs at the domain could be traced to the Novaya Zemlya by a day-by-day backward analysis. The oblique latitude/longitude–time profiles of both the 500 hPa geopotential height and the 850 hPa air temperature anomalies from the source to the domain clearly indicate that the pre-signal could have a leading influence that exceeds ten days, with a slow accumulation in the first stage and a rapid outburst in the second stage.