Increasing occurrence of extreme cold surges in North China during the recent global warming slowdown and the possible linkage to the extreme pressure rises over Siberia

2021 ◽  
Vol 248 ◽  
pp. 105198
Author(s):  
Ting Ding ◽  
Hui Gao ◽  
Xiang Li
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
North China ◽  
Extreme Pressure ◽  
Extreme Cold ◽  
Cold Surges

scholarly journals Interdecadal Variations of Persistent Extreme Heat Events in Eastern China Under Global Warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naihui Zang ◽  
Junhu Zhao ◽  
Pengcheng Yan ◽  
Han Zhang ◽  
Shankai Tang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
21St Century ◽  
South China ◽  
North China ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
June July ◽  
Heat Events

Abstract Persistent extreme heat events (PEHEs) exert a more negative impact on society, including agriculture, plant phenology, power production and human health, compared to general EHEs. The temporal and spatial characteristics of summer PEHEs in eastern China were analysed based on a daily maximum temperature dataset from 759 stations over the period of 1961–2018. The results show the following: Persistent distributions of PEHEs show that they are characterized by an exponential decay with a drop in the decay rate. In terms of spatial distribution, there is an apparent regional difference in the duration of PEHEs. North China is dominated by multi-frequency and short-duration EHEs, while South China is the opposite. PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai region mainly occur in June-July but mostly in July and August in South China. Strongly responding to global warming, the frequency and duration of PEHEs in North China have increased since the 1990s. However, the frequency of PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai region has shown opposite trends in June-July since the beginning of the 21st century. Affected by the atmospheric circulations, the regional differences in PEHE frequency are also apparent. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai area have shown an increasing trend in August. The short-term PEHEs in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China increased rapidly in the 2000s, while long-term PEHEs increased in the 2010s. This study implies that attention should be paid to not only the frequency of EH days but also to the persistence of EHE which is a key characteristic of damaging EH.

scholarly journals Changes in extreme temperature over China when global warming stabilized at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cenxiao Sun ◽  
Zhihong Jiang ◽  
Wei Li ◽  
Qiyao Hou ◽  
Laurent Li
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Cold Event ◽  
Southeast China ◽  
Transient Simulations ◽  
Cold Events ◽  
Extreme Cold

Abstract The 1.5 °C global warming target proposed by the Paris Agreement has raised worldwide attention and inspired numerous studies to assess corresponding climate changes for different regions of the world. But CMIP5 models based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are ‘transient simulations’ and cannot reflect the response of climate warming stabilized at 1.5 °C. The current work presents an assessment of extreme temperature changes in China with simulations from ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project specially conceived for global warming levels stabilized at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. When global warming stabilizes at 1.5 °C/2.0 °C, the areal-mean temperature for whole China increases by about 0.94 °C/1.59 °C (relative to present period, taken from 2006–2015). Notable increase regions are mainly found in Northwest and Northeast-North China, but warm spell duration increases mostly in Southeast China. The effect of the additional 0.5 °C warming is particularly investigated and compared between the transient and stabilized simulations. Changes of mean and extreme temperature are larger in transient simulations than in stabilized simulations. The uncertainty range is also narrower in stabilized simulations. Under stabilized global warming scenario, extreme hot event with return period of 100 years in the present climate becomes event occurring every 4.79 (1.5 °C warming level) and 1.56 years (2.0 °C warming level), extreme cold event with return period of 10 years becomes event occurring every 67 years under 1.5 °C warming and is unlikely to occur under 2.0 °C warming. For geographic distribution, the occurrence probabilities of extreme (hot and cold) events mainly change in the Tibetan Plateau, and the extreme cold events also change in Northeast and Southeast China.

scholarly journals A Climatological Study of Extreme Cold Surges along the African Highlands

2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (6) ◽  
pp. 1731-1738 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caitlin C. Crossett ◽  
Nicholas D. Metz
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Meridional Flow ◽  
Extreme Cold ◽  
Cold Surges ◽  
African Highlands ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Type 3

AbstractEquatorward-moving cold surges occur along the lee of high terrain during the cold season. Even though the east coast of Africa features high terrain, little research exists on cold surges along the African highlands despite the fact that these surges could have potentially large agricultural and societal effects. This paper examines a 5-yr climatology of the most extreme African-highlands cold surges spanning the 2008–12 period. During these years, 186 cold surges occurred to the lee of the African highlands, with 84 events extending between 30° and 35°S (type 1), 27 extending between 25° and 30°S (type 2), and 75 extending equatorward of 25°S (type 3) based on the 1000–850-hPa thickness pattern. This climatology reveals that extreme African-highlands cold surges have a climatological maximum in September. Cold surges of type 1 and type 2 tend to occur throughout the Southern Hemisphere winter and spring, whereas surges of type 3 are generally confined to the winter months. These cold surges can last from 2 to 8 days, with the highest frequency of events spanning a 3-day period. A typical cold-surge event features maximum 925-hPa meridional flow of 30.0–39.9 kt (1 kt = 0.51 m s−1) that most frequently advects cold Antarctic air to between 15.0° and 24.9°S and at times as far as the equator.

scholarly journals Extreme Cold Wave over East Asia in January 2016: A Possible Response to the Larger Internal Atmospheric Variability Induced by Arctic Warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 1203-1216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuangmei Ma ◽  
Congwen Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cold Wave ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Cold Waves ◽  
Anthropogenic Global Warming ◽  
Circulation Regime ◽  
Extreme Cold

It is argued that anthropogenic global warming may decrease the global occurrence of cold waves. However, a historical record-extreme cold wave, popularly called the “boss level” cold wave, attacked East Asia in January 2016, which gives rise to the discussion of why this boss-level cold wave occurred during the winter with the warmest recorded global mean surface air temperature (SAT). To explore the impacts of human-induced global warming and natural internal atmosphere variability, we investigated the cold-wave-related circulation regime (i.e., the large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern) and compared the observation with the large ensemble simulations of the MIROC5 model. Our results showed that this East Asian extreme cold-wave-related atmospheric circulation regime mainly exhibited an extremely strong anomaly of the Ural blocking high (UBH) and a record-breaking anomaly of the surface Siberian high (SH), and it largely originated from the natural internal atmosphere variability. However, because of the dynamic effect of Arctic amplification, anthropogenic global warming may increase the likelihood of extreme cold waves through shifting the responsible natural atmospheric circulation regime toward a stronger amplitude. The probability of occurrence of extreme anomalies of UBH, SH, and the East Asia area mean SAT have been increased by 58%, 57%, and 32%, respectively, as a consequence of anthropogenic global warming. Therefore, extreme cold waves in East Asia, such as the one in January 2016, may be an enhanced response to the larger internal atmospheric variability modulated by human-induced global warming.

Changes in extreme, cold-season synoptic precipitation events under global warming

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (20) ◽  
Author(s):  
William J. Gutowski ◽  
Stephanie S. Willis ◽  
Jason C. Patton ◽  
Benjamin R. J. Schwedler ◽  
Raymond W. Arritt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Extreme Cold ◽  
Precipitation Events
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