scholarly journals Capital Flight and Unemployment Rate in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
pp. 131-147
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Uzoma Makwe ◽  
Augustus N. Gbosi ◽  
Clever A. Gbanador
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Capital Flight ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Infrastructural Development ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Financial Account ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller

This study examined Capital Flight and unemployment rate in Nigeria. Capital flight was proxied by foreign direct investment abroad, external debt servicing, external reserves and capital and financial account deficits. Based on study objectives, relevant literatures were reviewed and evaluated. Relevant data were extracted from the annual Statistical Bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria and the National Bureau of Statistics. Unit root test was conducted using Augmented Dickey Fuller method which revealed that the variables were integrated at level and first difference necessitating the use of autoregressive distributive lag/bond test to explore the long run relationship existing among the variables in the model and the result showed that the variables in the model were co-integrated thus we proceeded in evaluating the long run as well as the co-integrating form in the model. From the result of the various tests, it was revealed capital flight did not actually increase unemployment rate in Nigeria within the periods studied by the researchers. Based on the findings from the analysis, the study recommended amongst others, that external debt acquired should be judiciously used for infrastructural development that would encourage investments which would ultimately bring about economic growth as well as enhance human development in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Hypotheses Testing: Capital Flight and Human Development Index in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
pp. 173-190
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Uzoma Makwe ◽  
Augustus N. Gbosi ◽  
Clever A. Gbanador
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Human Development Index ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Capital Flight ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Development Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Financial Account

This study examined Capital Flight and human development index in Nigerian. Capital Flight was proxied by foreign direct investment abroad, external debt servicing, external reserves and capital and financial account deficits. Based on the study objectives, relevant literature were reviewed and evaluated. Relevant data were extracted from the annual Statistical Bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria and the National Bureau of Statistics. Unit root test was conducted using Augmented Dickey Fuller method which revealed that the variables were integrated at level and first difference: necessitating the use of autoregressive distributive lag/bonds test to explore the long run relationship existing among the variables in the model and the result showed that the variables in the model were co-integrated thus we proceeded in evaluating the long run as well as the co-integrating form in the model. From the result of the various tests, it was revealed that capital and financial account deficit, external debt servicing and external reserve were positively related to human development index while foreign direct investment outflows was negatively related to human development index. Also, capital and financial account deficit, external reserve and foreign direct investment outflow were significant while external debt servicing was not significant. Based on the findings from the analysis, the study recommended amongst others, that external debt acquired should be judiciously used for infrastructural development that would encourage investments which would ultimately bring about economic growth as well as enhance human development in Nigeria.

scholarly journals RIPPLE EFFECT AND REGIONAL HOUSE PRICES DYNAMICS IN CHINA

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 397-408 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi-Chuan LEE ◽  
Chien-Chiang LEE ◽  
Shu-Hen CHIANG
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
Seemingly Unrelated Regressions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

This paper examines the stationarity properties, the long-run equilibrium and the leadlag relationship among the regional house prices in China from December 2000 to July 2013. Unlike traditional unit-root tests, the panel seemingly unrelated regressions augmented Dickey-Fuller (SURADF) unit-root test reveals that the regional house prices in China are a mixture of I(0) and I(1) processes. There is concrete evidence in favor of the hypothesis of a long-run equilibrium relationship among all regions, except for Shanghai region, and supporting the price diffusion or ripple effect among these Chinese cities. Finally, we determine that these regional house prices exhibit uni-directional causalities running from Beijing, Chongqing, and Shenzhen to Guangzhou and Tianjin, respectively.

scholarly journals Rethinking the Economic Development Implications of Trinity Policy Trade-offs in Nigeria: A Focus on GNI Per Capita Growth

2021 ◽  
pp. 57-66
Author(s):  
Johnbosco Ozigbu ◽  
Humphrey Nchom ◽  
Christopher Ezekwe
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Capital Mobility ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Living Standard ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Monetary Autonomy

This study deepens the understanding of the dynamic relationship between trinity policy trade-offs and GNI per capita in Nigeria between 1980 and 2020. The external reserve is introduced to the empirical model in recognition of its role in stimulating the effectiveness of trinity policy goals. Data for the variables were sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics, CBN Statistical Bulletin and World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI) among others. Descriptive statistics, Phillips-Perron unit root test, bounds cointegration and ARDL model as well as Tado-Yamamoto causality form basis for data analysis. The unit root test results reveal that the variables are mixed integrated. This necessitates the application of the bounds cointegration test. As observed from the results, a long-run relationship exists between GNI per capita and trinity policy indexes. It was found from the ARDL estimates that monetary autonomy and capital mobility have a significant positive effect on GNI per capita in both the short and long run. This suggests that more monetary policy sovereignty and openness of the financial architecture yield positive benefits of improved living standard. The result further showed evidence of long-run causality flowing from external reserve to GNI per capita. This finding explains why policymakers in Nigeria have continued to prioritize external reserve build-up for sterilized intervention and stimulating policy effectiveness. Given the findings, this study recommends that policymakers should strive to maintain appreciable monetary autonomy and gradually collapse restrictions on cross-border capital flows to improve economic well-being in Nigeria.

Does gender matter for the unemployment hysteresis effect among Asian countries?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheng-Zheng Li ◽  
Chi Wei Su ◽  
Ran Tao
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Hysteresis Effect ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government

PurposeThis study aims to examine the unemployment hysteresis effects from the perspective of the heterogeneity of genders within Asian countries.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use the annual unemployment rate dataset of 12 Asian countries ranging from 1991–2020. Traditional unit root tests are initially employed to investigate the unemployment hysteresis effect. Considering the structural break and cross-section dependence problems, the sequential panel selection method (SPSM) and the Kapetanios–Snell–Shin (KSS) panel unit root test with Fourier functions have proven to be more applicable.FindingsThe empirical results indicate that the unemployment rate is stationary in most Asian regions for both females and males, which confirms the mean reversion process of the natural unemployment hypothesis. This suggests that these countries' unemployment rates are flexible to quickly revert to its long-run equilibrium determined by the labor markets. However, only the female unemployment rate in Pakistan and Nepal and adult female unemployment rates in these two economies present non-stationary series. In line with the unemployment hysteresis effect, it means shocks will leave a permanent impact on their labor market.Practical implicationsOn the one hand, in most of the Asian countries, it can be inferred that the trade-off between inflation and unemployment is temporary because the natural unemployment hypothesis holds. Therefore, policymakers may consider using monetary policy as a tool to control inflation and stimulate growth during a recession. Such policy measures should not have a long-run impact on unemployment or cause a permanent shift in the natural unemployment rate. On the other hand, the government should implement active labor protective programs such as education or training schemes, job search assistance programs and maternity protection, especially for female adults, to reduce the negative shocks in the economic downturn, which is beneficial for them away from being long-term unemployed. It is also necessary to improve the labor unions to reduce the discrimination between female and male labors.Originality/valueThis paper innovatively concentrates on the heterogeneity performances between genders about the unemployment hysteresis effect within Asian countries. Furthermore, taking into account the age-specific characteristics, the youth and adult unemployment rates have been investigated. Additionally, the approximation of bootstrap distribution and the advanced panel KSS unit root test with a Fourier function are employed. Thereby, targeted policies for the government can be applied to reduce the discrimination and negative shocks on female adults in the labor market.

scholarly journals Domestic Factors That Affect The Price of Styrene Butadiene Latex in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-68
Author(s):  
Rosalendro Eddy Nugroho
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Positive Coefficient ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Styrene Butadiene

This paper investigates or examines the causal links between price of styrene butadiene latex (SBL) and other domestic variables such as supply, demand, Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI), price of styrene, and price of butadiene during the period of 1995–2017 on the monthly basis.. Results from Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) or unit root test showed that the stationary state of the whole variables is of first difference (I). The Granger pairwise causality test revealed a bidirectional causality of SBL with BTD(Butadiene), SBL with STY(Styrene), SUPP(Supply) with DMD(Demand), DMD with STY, DMD with BTD and STY with SUPP and vice versa. Johansen test found out a co-integration of SBL prices. However, this study proved no significant links between the price of SBL and supply of SBL (SUPP) in the long and short run. This paper highlights the fact that SBL price has a significant direct impact in the long run on the styrene (STY) and butadiene (BTD) prices, as well as HHI. Similarly, these aspects also have a significant direct impact proved by the positive coefficient in the long run on the SBL pricing. The findings further showed that the price of SBL has a connection and significant direct impact on the negative arrow for the short and long run equilibrium, in line with the price and demands for SB Latex, pressing and oil classification.

scholarly journals A LONG RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GOLD PRICE AND INFLATION- EVIDENCE FROM THE INDIAN EXPERIENCE

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 100-107
Author(s):  
Anjali ◽  
K.T. Thomachan
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Indian Experience ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller

The study examines the long run relationship between gold price and inflation from the Indian experience.  The main objective of the study is to identify whether there is long run relationship between the gold price and inflation.  For the investigation three year monthly data from July 2011 to June 2014.  The study is conducted by Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test, Johansen Co-integration Test and Granger Causality Test and finally came to the conclusion that there is no long run relationship between gold price and inflation.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of Defense-Economic Growth Relationship in Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tayyab Sohail ◽  
Qaiser Jamal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Cold War ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Growth Process ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Defense Spending ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
Openness To Trade

Since the last quarter of 20th century the macroeconomic impact of defense spending on the economic growth have attracted the attention of many researchers, academician and policy makers. During the cold war the US defense strategy against the Soviet Union was the first time when it was derived. After the cold war a reduction in defense spending was observed which was named as “Peace Dividend”. Most of the developing and developed countries try to make peace and promote it but still it is seen that large portion of the overall global GDP is spent on the defense sector. This study surveys defense-growth nexus by incorporating openness to trade, external debt, gross capital formation and labor force in production function. The study uses annual time series data over the period 1972-2016. For estimation purposes, the study employed ADF unit root test and P-P unit root test for testing stationarity properties, ARDL Bound test to cointegration used for testing long run relationship. The empirical evidence of the study reveals that Economic growth is positively affected by spending on defense sector, capital investments, labor force, and openness to trade in long run while external debt has a negative effect on economic growth. Apart from this, empirical evidence also suggests that in short run; there is positive imperative role of capital investment, defense spending, and openness to trade in growth process, while external debt retards the pace of economic growth. Results of the study indicates that defense spending could be used as a fiscal tool for achieving sustainable growth, government should invest high R&D in defense sector in order to produce modernize defense products which would reduce high importation cost of expensive defense products, and through selling these defense products, not only the defense sector would be self-sufficient but would also contribute to growth process by exporting the defense products.

scholarly journals Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ali Sindhu ◽  
Muhammad Abdul Quddus
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Energy Efficient ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Bound Test ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Ardl Bound Test

The study explored the link between energy consumption and economic growth in Pakistan covering the period from 1980 to 2018. This study used an augmented production function and combined the two neo-classical and ecological points. Most important is that this study used three different proxies of energy to check whether the relationship is proxy specific or not in Pakistan. Furthermore, there are some controls in terms of trade and foreign direct investment to check the robustness of the relationship. The time series approaches as augmented dickey fuller (ADF) unit root test and ARDL bound test approach has applied. The results indicated the long-run positive relationship between energy and growth in Pakistan and the relationship is not proxy specific. Therefore, it has suggested enhancing energy efficient policies, better resource allocation for energy supply.

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF INDIA’S FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 105-111
Author(s):  
Khujan Singh ◽  
Anil Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Significant Implication ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
First Order ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Directional Relation ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Vecm Granger Causality

The present study is an attempt to examine long run relationship among India’s GDP, Exports and Imports for which yearly time series data from 1995 to 2018 has been collected. Data for India’s GDP has been collected from RBI website and India’s export and import data has been collected form Ministry of Commerce and Industry website. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test for stationarity found that studied variables become stationary at first order of difference. While, Johnson cointegration test revealed long run cointegration between India’s GDP, exports and imports. The results of VECM Granger causality test exhibited bi-directional relationship between India’s GDP and India’s exports, whereas uni-directional relation has been found between India’s GDP and India’s imports. These results have significant implication for India’s export import policy and to achieve a target of $5 trillion economy till 2024-2025.

scholarly journals Dynamic Relationship Between Real Export, Real Import, Real Exchange Rate, Labor Force and Real Gross Domestic Product in Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 20
Author(s):  
Emilda Hashim ◽  
Norimah Rambeli ◽  
Asmawi Hashim ◽  
Norasibah Abdul Jalil ◽  
Shahrun Nizam Abdul Aziz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run

This study examined short run and long run relationship between endogenous and exogenous variables. Specifically, it studied the relationship between real export, real import, labor force participation and real effective exchange rate (REER) and real GDP in Malaysia from 1988 to 2017. These variables were tested in various tests, namely, unit root test, granger causality test, vector autoregressive (VAR), Johansen Juselius test and Error Correction Term (ECT). The result revealed that all variables were non-stationary at the level form and stationary at first difference in ADF unit root test. The findings also exhibited the existence of bilateral relationships between real export and real GDP, real import and real GDP, as well as labor and real GDP. Nonetheless, there were no relationship found between REER and real GDP. On the other hand, in VAR, the lag optimum was lag 10 because it indicated the smallest value of AIC. Moreover, for Johansen Juselius cointegration test, it showed two cointegrated vector at both, 5% and 1%, level in trace test. In addition, Max-Eigen value test indicated two cointegrated vector at 0.05 and one cointegrated vector at 0.01. As for the Wald test, there were long run cointegration relationship between real GDP and its determinants, namely real export, real import, labor and REER. Apparently, Malaysia, as a small open economy, has relied heavily on foreign trade. Consequently, our domestic economic performance is susceptible to the changes in international markets and exchange rate. Therefore, suitable international policy implementation is vital to ensure Malaysian economy will be able to adjust to current global changes.

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