Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections

Changes in political leadership drive large changes in economic optimism. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties: a 1.1 to 2.6 percentage point difference in annual births, depending on the intensity of partisanship. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites. Further, following Trump pre-election campaign visits, relative Hispanic fertility declines.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on treatment patterns for US patients with metastatic solid cancer

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to delays in patients seeking care for life-threatening conditions; however, its impact on treatment patterns for patients with metastatic cancer is unknown. We assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on time to treatment initiation (TTI) and treatment selection for patients newly diagnosed with metastatic solid cancer. Methods: We used an electronic health record-derived longitudinal database curated via technology-enabled abstraction to identify 14,136 US patients newly diagnosed with de novo or recurrent metastatic solid cancer between January 1 and July 31 in 2019 or 2020. Patients received care at ~280 predominantly community-based oncology practices. Controlled interrupted time series analyses assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic period (April-July 2020) on TTI, defined as the number of days from metastatic diagnosis to receipt of first-line systemic therapy, and use of myelosuppressive therapy. Results: The adjusted probability of treatment within 30 days of diagnosis [95% confidence interval] was similar across periods: January-March 2019 41.7% [32.2%, 51.1%]; April-July 2019 42.6% [32.4%, 52.7%]; January-March 2020 44.5% [30.4%, 58.6%]; April-July 2020 46.8% [34.6%, 59.0%]; adjusted percentage-point difference-in-differences 1.4% [-2.7%, 5.5%]. Among 5,962 patients who received first-line systemic therapy, there was no association between the pandemic period and use of myelosuppressive therapy (adjusted percentage-point difference-in-differences 1.6% [-2.6%, 5.8%]). There was no meaningful effect modification by cancer type, race, or age. Conclusions: Despite known pandemic-related delays in surveillance and diagnosis, the COVID-19 pandemic did not impact time to treatment initiation or treatment selection for patients with metastatic solid cancers.

America’s electorate is increasingly polarized along partisan lines about voting by mail during the COVID-19 crisis

Are voters as polarized as political leaders when it comes to their preferences about how to cast their ballots in November 2020 and their policy positions on how elections should be run in light of the COVID-19 outbreak? Prior research has shown little party divide on voting by mail, with nearly equal percentages of voters in both parties choosing to vote this way where it is an option. Has a divide opened up this year in how voters aligned with the Democratic and Republican parties prefer to cast a ballot? We address these questions with two nationally diverse, online surveys fielded from April 8 to 10 and June 11 to 13, of 5,612 and 5,818 eligible voters, respectively, with an embedded experiment providing treated respondents with scientific projections about the COVID-19 outbreak. We find a nearly 10 percentage point difference between Democrats and Republicans in their preference for voting by mail in April, which had doubled in size to nearly 20 percentage points in June. This partisan gap is wider still for those exposed to scientific projections about the pandemic. We also find that support for national legislation requiring states to offer no-excuse absentee ballots has emerged as an increasingly polarized issue.

Gender Differences in Performance and Risk-taking among Children, Teenagers, and College Students: Evidence from Jeopardy!

Studying Jeopardy! contestants in the US, we explore whether and when gender differences in performance in competitive settings and risk-taking emerge with age and by opponents’ gender. We identify no gender differences in winning episodes, responding, or responding correctly to clues. Male teenagers (but not children) wager substantially more than female teenagers, leading to the emergence of the gender gap, equivalent to a 7.3 percentage point difference. This gap persists for college students. Finally, male teenagers and college students wager substantially less when competing against females, whereas the gender of opponents does not influence the behavior of young female contestants.

Changing Associations between Socioeconomic Status and Perceived Discrimination from the 1990s to the 2010s in the United States

Individuals with low socioeconomic status have a higher risk of experiencing daily discrimination, that is, receiving unfair and disrespectful treatment from others. Social trends in economic inequality suggest that the life circumstances of individuals with low socioeconomic status have not improved with the same rate as those with high socioeconomic status. We examined whether the prevalence of class discrimination in the United States has changed in the last two decades. Data were from the original Midlife in the United States (MIDUS) study with data collections in 1995-1996 (n=2,931) and 2004-2005 (n=1,708), and the new MIDUS Refresher sample from 2011-2014 (n=2,543). Socioeconomic status was assessed with education, occupational status, income, and self-reported financial situation. Daily discrimination experiences were assessed with the Everyday Discrimination Scale. Socioeconomic status became more strongly associated with discrimination experiences over time: at the 1995-1996 baseline assessment, the difference in daily discrimination between the highest and lowest SES groups was 15.3% vs. 10.8% (4.7 percentage point difference). This difference increased to 20.0% vs. 7.4% difference in 2011-2014 (12.6 percentage point difference). Perceived discrimination was associated with psychological distress similarly over time and across levels of socioeconomic status. The results suggest that people with low socioeconomic status have a higher risk of encountering unfair and disrespectful treatment from others in the 2010s compared to the 1990s.

Registered Replication Report: Rand, Greene, and Nowak (2012)

In an anonymous 4-person economic game, participants contributed more money to a common project (i.e., cooperated) when required to decide quickly than when forced to delay their decision (Rand, Greene & Nowak, 2012), a pattern consistent with the social heuristics hypothesis proposed by Rand and colleagues. The results of studies using time pressure have been mixed, with some replication attempts observing similar patterns (e.g., Rand et al., 2014) and others observing null effects (e.g., Tinghög et al., 2013; Verkoeijen & Bouwmeester, 2014). This Registered Replication Report (RRR) assessed the size and variability of the effect of time pressure on cooperative decisions by combining 21 separate, preregistered replications of the critical conditions from Study 7 of the original article (Rand et al., 2012). The primary planned analysis used data from all participants who were randomly assigned to conditions and who met the protocol inclusion criteria (an intent-to-treat approach that included the 65.9% of participants in the time-pressure condition and 7.5% in the forced-delay condition who did not adhere to the time constraints), and we observed a difference in contributions of −0.37 percentage points compared with an 8.6 percentage point difference calculated from the original data. Analyzing the data as the original article did, including data only for participants who complied with the time constraints, the RRR observed a 10.37 percentage point difference in contributions compared with a 15.31 percentage point difference in the original study. In combination, the results of the intent-to-treat analysis and the compliant-only analysis are consistent with the presence of selection biases and the absence of a causal effect of time pressure on cooperation.

Economic Experts versus Average Americans

We compare answers to policy questions by economic experts and a representative sample of the US population. We find a 35 percentage point difference between the two groups. This gap is only partially explained by differences in ideological or personal characteristics of the two samples. Interestingly, the difference is the largest on the questions where economists agree the most and where there is the largest amount of literature. Informing people of the expert opinions does not seem to have much of an impact. Ordinary people seem to be skeptical of the implicit assumptions embedded into the economists' answers.

A Loblolly Pine Seedling-Grade by Genotype Study

A loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) seedling grade study was established in January 1987 on a Coastal Plain site at Bellville, Georgia. The factorial study involved three seedling grades (Wakeley's Grade 1, 2, and 3) and three half-sib families (#5, 25, 56). Trees were measured at ages 8 and 13 yr. Both family and seedling grade affected survival, height, and diameter at age 8 yr. Survival among families varied by as much as 3 percentage points while there was a 10 percentage point difference between Grade 1 and Grade 2 seedlings. Only family was related to height and diameter at age 13. Volume gains from planting Grade 1 seedlings instead of Grade 3 seedlings varied by family but there were no significant interactions between family and seedling grade. Differences in height among families and among seedling grades decreased over time. At age 8, there was a 5.3 ft difference between the tallest and shortest family but by age 13, the difference declined to 3.7 ft.Overall, planting family 56 instead of family 25 resulted in an additional 645 ft3/ac by age 13. Planting Grade 1 seedlings instead of Grade 3 seedlings produced an additional 303 ft3/ac. Per acre volume differences among families were greater at age 13 than at age 8. In contrast, differences among seedling grades were about the same at age 8 and 13 yr. The overall mean annual increment (MAI) for this study was 207 ft3/ac/yr. In comparison, the MAI for Grade 1 seedlings of family 56 was 239 ft3/ac/yr. South. J. Appl. For. 26(3):153–158.