Endogenous Separations, Wage Rigidities, and Unemployment Volatility

We show that in microdata, as well as in a search and matching model with flexible wages for new hires, wage rigidities of incumbent workers have substantial effects on separations and unemployment volatility. Allowing for an empirically relevant degree of wage rigidities for incumbent workers drives unemployment volatility as well as the volatility of vacancies and tightness to that in the data. Thus, the degree of wage rigidity for newly hired workers is not a sufficient statistic for determining the effect of wage rigidities on macroeconomic outcomes. This finding affects the interpretation of a large empirical literature on wage rigidities. (JEL E24, J23, J31, J41, J63)

Declining Worker Turnover: The Role of Short-Duration Employment Spells

Using the Quarterly Workforce Indicators database, we document that a significant amount of the decline in labor market turnover during the last two decades is accounted for by the decline in employment spells that last just one or two quarters. This phenomenon is pervasive: short-term employment spells have declined across industries, firm size categories, demographic groups, and geographic regions. Using a search-and-matching model in the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides tradition that incorporates noisy signals about the quality of a worker-firm match, we argue that improved screening by workers and firms can account for much of the decline in short-lived employment spells. (JEL E24, J23, J41, J63, M51)

An Estimated Search and Matching Model of the Croatian Labor Market: Post-crisis Analysis

The paper specifies a simple search and matching model of the labor market and studies how well the model can describe aggregate Croatian labor market dynamics. The model developed is a discrete-time search and matching model with convex vacancy posting costs and two types of shocks: productivity and separation shocks. The model is estimated on unemployment and vacancy data during the period from 2012 to 2020 by using Bayesian methods. The model fits the data well and the estimation shows that productivity shocks are the main driving force of the fluctuations in the labor market, especially for the case of vacancies and output, while the separation shock process accounts for a large percentage of unemployment fluctuations.

The Aggregate Implications of Mergers and Acquisitions

This paper develops a search and matching model of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and uses it to evaluate the implications of merger activity for aggregate economic outcomes. The theory is consistent with a rich set of facts on US M&A, including sorting among merging firms, a substantial merger premium and serial acquisition. It provides a sharp link between these facts and the nature of merger gains. At the micro-level, both complementarities between merging firms and productivity improvements of target firms are important in generating gains. At the macro-level, the model suggests a significant beneficial impact of M&A on aggregate outcomes – the contribution to steady state output is 14% and 4% for consumption – which occurs through the reallocation of resources across firms and equilibrium effects on firm selection and new entrepreneurship. Nevertheless, the economy is not efficient, suggesting a scope for policy improvements – a simple flat tax on M&A can raise steady state consumption as much as 2% relative to the laissez-faire equilibrium. In short, the boundaries of the firm can matter for macroeconomic outcomes.

How Large Are Firing Costs? A Cross-Country Study

This paper provides evidence for the size and the cyclicality of firing costs for the United States and Germany. In contrast to the existing literature, we use the optimality conditions obtained in a search and matching model to find a reduced form equation for firing costs. We find that our estimates are slightly larger compared with other studies and document sizable time-variation in firing costs.

Reevaluating the German labor market miracle

From 2003 to 2018, employment in Germany increased by 7.3 million, or by 19.3 % – growth not observed since unification. This “labor market miracle” was marked by a persistent and significant expansion of both part-time and low-wage jobs and a deterioration in pay for these jobs, while total hours hardly increased; overall wage growth returned only after 2011. These developments followed in the wake of the landmark Hartz reforms (2003–2005). A modified framework of Katz and Murphy (1992) predicts negative correlation of wages with both relative employment and participation across cells in the period following these reforms. In contrast, wage moderation alone should generate positive association of wages and participation. Our findings are most consistent with a persistent, positive labor supply shock at given working-age population in a cleared labor market. An alternative perspective of labor markets, the search and matching model, also points to the Hartz IV reforms as the central driver of the German labor market miracle.

A NOTE ON THE RELATION BETWEEN SEARCH COSTS AND SEARCH DURATION FOR NEW HIRES

Fixed search costs, that is, costs that do not vary with search duration, can amplify the cyclical volatility of the labor market. To assess the size of fixed costs, we analyze the relation between search costs and search duration using German establishment data. An instrumental variable estimation shows no relation between search duration and search costs. We conclude that search costs are mainly fixed costs. Furthermore, we show that a search and matching model, calibrated for Germany with fixed costs close to 75%, can generate labor market volatility that is consistent with the data.

The Beveridge Curve in the Housing Market

As opposed to a recent criticism (according to which a model à la Pissarides inherently generates a downward sloping Beveridge curve), this short theoretical paper shows that a baseline search-and-matching model is able to take into account the main distinctive features of the housing market, thus generating an upward sloping Beveridge curve.

Venture Capital Contracts

We estimate the impact of venture capital (VC) contract terms on startup outcomes and the split of value between the entrepreneur and investor, accounting for endogenous selection via a novel dynamic search and matching model. The estimation uses a new, large data set of first financing rounds of startup companies. Consistent with efficient contracting theories, there is an optimal equity split between agents, which maximizes the probability of success. However, VCs use their bargaining power to receive more investor-friendly terms compared to the contract that maximizes startup values. Better VCs still benefit the startup and the entrepreneur, due to their positive value creation. Counterfactuals show that reducing search frictions shifts the bargaining power to VCs and benefits them at the expense of entrepreneurs. The results show that selection of agents into deals is a first-order factor to take into account in studies of contracting.

Taxation of Temporary Jobs: Good Intentions with Bad Outcomes?

This article analyses the consequences of the taxation of temporary jobs of short duration recently introduced in several European countries to induce firms to create more open-ended contracts and to increase the duration of jobs. The estimation of a job search and matching model on French data shows that the taxation of temporary jobs does not reach its objectives: it reduces the mean duration of jobs and decreases job creation, employment and welfare of unemployed workers.