Analysis of meteorological parameters triggering rainfall- induced landslide: a review of 70 years in Valtellina

This paper presents an extended reanalysis of the rainfall-induced geo-hydrological events that have occurred in the last 70 years in the alpine area of the Lombardy region, Italy. The work is focused on the description of the major meteorological triggering factors that have caused diffuse episodes of shallow landslides and debris flow. The aim of this reanalysis was to try to evaluate their magnitude quantitatively. The triggering factors were studied following two approaches. The first one started from the conventional analysis of the rainfall intensity (I) and duration (D) considering local rain gauge data and applying the I–D threshold methodology integrated with an estimation of the events' return period. We then extended this analysis and proposed a new index for the magnitude assessment (magnitude index, MI) based on frequency–magnitude theory. The MI was defined considering both the return period and the spatial extent of each rainfall episode. The second approach is based on a regional-scale analysis of meteorological triggers. In particular, the strength of the extratropical cyclone (EC) structure associated with the precipitation events was assessed through the sea level pressure tendency (SLPT) meteorological index. The latter has been estimated from the Norwegian cyclone model (NCM) theory. Both indexes have shown an agreement in ranking the event's magnitude (R2=0.88), giving a similar interpretation of the severity that was also found to be in accordance with the information reported in historical databases. This back analysis of 70 years in Valtellina identifies the MI and the SLPT as good magnitude indicators of the event, confirming that a strong cause–effect relationship exists among the EC intensity and the local rainfall recorded on the ground. In respect of the conventional I–D threshold methodology, which is limited to a binary estimate of the likelihood of landslide occurrence, the evaluation of the MI and the SLPT indexes allows quantifying the magnitude of a rainfall episode capable of generating severe geo-hydrological hazards.

Historical Databases Now and in the Future

Kees Mandemakers has enriched historical databases in the Netherlands and internationally through the development of the Historical Sample of the Netherlands, the Intermediate Data Structure, a practical implementation of rule-based record linking (LINKS) and personal encouragement of high quality longitudinal data in a number of countries.

Not Like Everybody Else. Essays in Honor of Kees Mandemakers

This collection of essays pays tribute to Kees Mandemaker's great contribution to the data infrastructure of social science history, in the Netherlands and elsewhere. Several essays discuss (the future of) historical databases. Yet other provide examples of research on topics covering important life course transitions. All demonstrate the scale, scope and variation of research based on well-constructed databases.

Historical Databases, Big and Small

Big Data is a relative term, and Small Data can be equally important. Not only the volume of data defines if data is 'Big', but three more Vs characterise the term: velocity (speed of data generation and processing), veracity (referring to data quality) and variety. Perhaps the most defining is methodological: data becomes really big when new methods are needed to process and analyse it. In contrast, this paper demonstrates how even a tiny dataset can contribute to our understanding of the past, in this case of the historical geography of two provinces in Ottoman Greece in the 17th century. Graph analysis is used on a dataset of just 16 data pairs, illustrating the point that a close-up view of data complements the look from farther away at bigger data volumes.

The Life Span of Large Historical Databases

Large historical databases, although intended to last for a long time, can become obsolete for a variety of reasons. In this essay these reasons are explored and used for a 'health check' of the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN). The HSN leaders are examined for their visionary qualities and their sense of ownership, and the database for its complementarity, versatility and consistency. The essay concludes that, despite challenges ahead, HSN is sound of mind and body.

Strength in Numbers. A Short Note on the Past, Present and Future of Large Historical Databases

Historical demography is inherently associated with constructing large-scale databases from historical records. Although there have been tremendous changes in the way they are constructed, many of the challenges remain. Throughout his career, Kees Mandemakers has been instrumental in facing some of these challenges, particularly those related to the conservation, standardization, and dissemination of databases. This short contribution discusses the evolution of large historical databases in historical demography.

Optimising Well Times Through Drilling Connection Practices

From an operator's perspective, many operational instructions are written implicitly that are not sufficiently detailed to optimize drilling efficiency. Upon a review of several partner operators’ drilling performance, it was noticed that there was a significant focus on the following aspects of technical limit drilling: ROP, tripping speeds, offline activities and connection times. One operator specifically reviewed Gulf-of-Thailand best practices and implemented them in Malaysia. One of the significant areas of improvement includes drilling connections. In the previous version, PETRONAS Malaysia Drilling Operations follows a conservative ERD connection method requiring to ream a single/stand, take a good survey a minimum 10m off bottom prior to making a connection and applied to all wells regardless of inclination or complexity. This was in response to risk of stuck pipe incidents happening during these critical static periods. A comparison of the connection times after their change in practice compared to PCSB practices given the same tools and well complexity indicated massive potential time savings with no additional costs. A change in the drilling connection practices could easily save almost half of this particular "flat time" with no significant risk, amounting to a possible saving of almost 26 hours in a well of around 3000m MDDF. This also led to a better understanding of the impacts of certain "rule-of-thumb" practices that needed to be questioned from time to time. This comparison coupled with many existing literatures available allowed a data-driven approach to improving well times. Some of this information is easily glossed over considering the only time-based data most wells refer to would be the Daily Drilling Report. This paper also emphasizes the importance of data collection and usage of historical databases to search for more opportunities in terms of safety, cost and time.

Digital Framework for the History of the Austrian Military Border in Transylvania

"The study provides the documentation for the first public version of the database Digital Framework for the History of the Austrian Military Border in Transylvania by means of a detailed description and user manual. It includes: a short overview of the historical context of the establishment of the Austrian military border in this province, references to the international and Romanian state of the art, the detailing of primary sources issued by the military environment and starting from which the database was built and the main principles of construction and operation of the latter. The information in the database is extracted from the records of the military and administrative personnel of the Transylvanian border regiments between 1763 and 1850, including monthly staff records, information on salaries, enrollments, transfers, desertions, medical certificates, etc. The lists of conduct of the officers should also be mentioned, each of them including a detailed physical and psychological description of the respective person. The database serves two aims. On the one hand, to boost the use of and access to documents generated by the Austrian military and with this to bring the Romanian historical writing on the military border in Transylvania closer to the primary sources. On the other hand, to complement, for the territory of the former military border, the vital registration data provided by parish registers with social history data that can improve life course reconstruction and analysis. Keywords: Historical databases, Austrian Military Border, Transylvania, Habsburg Monarchy, Military history "

Tracking historical changes in trustworthiness using machine learning analyses of facial cues in paintings

Social trust is linked to a host of positive societal outcomes, including improved economic performance, lower crime rates and more inclusive institutions. Yet, the origins of trust remain elusive, partly because social trust is difficult to document in time. Building on recent advances in social cognition, we design an algorithm to automatically generate trustworthiness evaluations for the facial action units (smile, eye brows, etc.) of European portraits in large historical databases. Our results show that trustworthiness in portraits increased over the period 1500–2000 paralleling the decline of interpersonal violence and the rise of democratic values observed in Western Europe. Further analyses suggest that this rise of trustworthiness displays is associated with increased living standards.