Position in global value chains and wages in Central and Eastern European countries

This paper examines the relationship between the relative position of industries in Global Value Chains (GVC) and wages in 10 Central and Eastern European countries. We combine GVC measures of global import intensity of production, upstreamness and the length of the value chain with micro-data on workers. We find that the wages of Central and Eastern European countries workers are higher when their industry is at the beginning of the chain or at the end than in the middle. Secondly, wage changes depend on the interplay between upstreamness and GVC intensity. In sectors close to final demand, greater production fragmentation is associated with lower wages.

Structural Shifts in the Economy of the Russian Federation and Its Import Intensity in 2014–2019: Analysis of Macroeconomic Statistics.

The introductory part of the article formulates its objective – to characterize development conditions in Russia and main structural changes in the Russian economy (according to 2014–2019 data) from the standpoint of their compliance with the tasks of increasing the stability and quality of the country's economic growth during the transition of the world system to a new technological order. Аccording to the authors, this period is of particular interest in assessing and studying the experience associated with structural transformation in a highly unfavorable external condition amid tight monetary policy and restrictive income policy.The article sequentially addresses certain aspects of the structural transformation of the Russian economy. The authors, relying on macroeconomic statistics, assess shifts in production and use of products, investment, import intensity, the balance of payments, and international investment position, considering external and internal conditions.The paper focuses on analyzing the proportions of the economy according to the data of the Rosstat input-output tables (IOTs). The article provides estimates of structural changes in the dependence of the economy and its segments on types of imports, signifcant changes in the direction of the use of fnal products, including considering the dynamics of changes in the total input of intermediate imports. For the frst time, the characteristics of the concentration of gross value added (GVA) and gross domestic product (GDP) by areas of fnal demand are given. A methodological approach is proposed for monitoring shifts in import consumption by compiling annual summary tables with a minimum set of data obtained during the analytical processing of IOT information. Based on the results of testing this approach on data for 2016 and 2018, the authors rated cost product balances by the share of imports in the resources of products. Conclusions were drawn about the change in the import intensity of the economy for the selected types of products, the import intensity of Russian industries, and shifts in the distribution structure of types of imported products. The article formulates proposals for the development of measures necessary to consolidate and expand positive results of this stage in the development of the Russian economy and statistical support of macroeconomic analysis.

The Future Potential and Prospects of SAARC Regional Grouping: A Study

The renewed and reinvigorated engagement of India with the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) over the past few years has been one of the significant factors leading to the gradual and irreversible transition of the regional organisation from a declaratory phase to one of implementation (Bhagwati, 2008). The recent developments in the South Asian region, especially the new growth momentum that is observed and increasing openness that brings a fresh look at the economic integration of the region. In this context the study examines the opportunities and commodity potential of trade between India and the SAARC countries by adopting a variety of trade indices of export intensity index and import intensity index along with Gini coefficient. The authors further study the commodity trade potential between India and the SAARC countries by adopting the revealed comparative advantage index and revealed import dependency index. The study concludes an increasing export intensity and import intensity of trade between India and the other SAARC member countries. Finally, the values of Gravity coefficient and commodity analysis find a high trade potential between them and the untapped trade and investment scenario that could be tapped by strengthening the regional block of SAARC.

Trade Deficit of Bangladesh with China: Patterns, Propensity and Policy Implications

This paper aims to examine export, import and trade intensity, export specialization index, Herfindahl-Hirschman index for bilateral concentration and diversification indices to analyze the specializations, structure and trends of deficit in bilateral trade between Bangladesh and China from 1995 to 2018 and policy recommendations in this regard. The results reveal that the gap of export and import intensity between Bangladesh and China is widening rapidly perennial. The export specialization indices expose very significant outcomes where among the analyzed 16 sectors; 6 sectors exhibit high specialization, 3 sectors demonstrate medium, 3 sectors exhibit low and the rest of the 4 sectors disclose no specialization for Bangladesh’s export to China. The findings of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) reveal that from 1995 to 2010 the export of Bangladesh to China concentrated within few sectors but from the year 2011 to 2018 the export has been reclassifying steadily into diversification. The overall analysis of the indices suggests the necessity to be improved of the level of intra-industry trade between China and Bangladesh. Moreover, emphasis should be given to the sectors having a high specialization that endure the capacity to narrow the trade deficit. Furthermore, the export baskets of Bangladesh to China require to be diversified. Hereafter, various measures and implications are also suggested in the policy recommendation for further improvement.

Trade Deficit of Bangladesh with China: Patterns, Propensity and Policy Implications

This paper aims to examine export, import and trade intensity, export specialization index, Herfindahl-Hirschman index for bilateral concentration and diversification indices to analyze the specializations, structure and trends of deficit in bilateral trade between Bangladesh and China from 1995 to 2018 and policy recommendations in this regard. The results reveal that the gap of export and import intensity between Bangladesh and China is widening rapidly perennial. The export specialization indices expose very significant outcomes where among the analyzed 16 sectors; 6 sectors exhibit high specialization, 3 sectors demonstrate medium, 3 sectors exhibit low and the rest of the 4 sectors disclose no specialization for Bangladesh’s export to China. The findings of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) reveal that from 1995 to 2010 the export of Bangladesh to China concentrated within few sectors but from the year 2011 to 2018 the export has been reclassifying steadily into diversification. The overall analysis of the indices suggests the necessity to be improved of the level of intra-industry trade between China and Bangladesh. Moreover, emphasis should be given to the sectors having a high specialization that endure the capacity to narrow the trade deficit. Furthermore, the export baskets of Bangladesh to China require to be diversified. Hereafter, various measures and implications are also suggested in the policy recommendation for further improvement.

Bilateral Trade Among Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa Economies: An Empirical Analysis

In the backdrop of increasing share of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) economies in the total world commodity trade, the prime objective of the present study is to determine the export and import intensities of total commodities among the economies forming the BRICS group. For this purpose, the present study undertakes an empirical analysis of bilateral trade among BRICS economies using indices of export and import intensity for a 10-year time period, commencing from the year 2006 (the year in which the BRIC grouping was formalized) to the year 2015, so as to determine the degree of trade integration among the partner nations. As a thumb rule, when an economy’s export and import intensity index values are estimated to be greater than one with the same trading partner, then it reflects a high degree of trade integration between them. With regard to the findings of the present study, wherever the regional integration among certain member countries of the BRICS is found to be on the higher side, the composition of exports and imports has also been provided for the dominant commodities. Thus, in the present study, the calculation of trade intensities, identification of specific commodities and incidence of higher trade integration within the BRICS countries present the collective picture of their mutual trade flows, which has further helped in the identification of policy-relevant points in this regard.

Testing the Validity of Linder Hypothesis Using Gravity Model: The Case of Turkey and Selected Transition Economies

In this study, the validity of the Linder Hypothesis has been tested based on export and import intensity of foreign trade flows between Turkish economy and selected Transition Countries. According to this hypothesis, the more similar the demand structures and per capita income levels of countries, the more they will trade with one another. The hypothesis uses the difference between the per capita income of countries engaged in foreign trade as the main parameter and indicates that a fall in income difference between two countries increases the validity of the Linder hypothesis by increasing the intensity of foreign trade of the countries. The study considers selected Transition Countries having rising share of foreign trade with Turkey during the period 2001-2017 to examine the validity of Linder Hypothesis in the context of foreign trade flows employing Gravity Models that shows "Aggregate Linder Demand Effect" and panel data analysis. Test results does not support Linder hypothesis in terms of export and import intensity of foreign trade flows between Turkish economy and selected Transition Countries during 2001-2017, rather factor endowment does matter for inter-industry foreign trade.

Trade Liberalization and Import Intensity in the Mongolian Manufacturing

This article presents an empirical analysis of the consequences of trade liberalization on import intensity in Mongolia, a ‘least-developed landlocked country’ with weak institutions and severe infrastructure bottlenecks. The theoretical framework employed in modelling is based on industrial organization and international trade literature. Our results suggest that foreign investment stimulates import intensity possibly due to the prevalence of intra-firm trade between subsidies, while the protection of domestic market and state ownership reduces import intensity. There is no statistically significant evidence to suggest that import intensity is lower in unskilled labour-intensive industries. These findings have significant policy implications for further liberalization in order to improve Mongolia’s trade competitiveness.