Judgments in causal chains: The impact of positive and negative motives and outcomes on lay attributions

<p>Research on attributions about several events in causal chains has focused on chains ending in negative outcomes and has not examined positive outcomes and actions (e.g., Hilton, McClure, & Sutton, 2010; Lagnado & Channon, 2008; McClure, Hilton, & Sutton, 2007). On the other hand, research on attributions for positive and negative events has examined judgments about one event in the chain and has not examined effects on other causes in the chain or made comparative judgments about physical causes that produce similar effects to actions (e.g., Alicke, 1992; Alicke, Rose, & Bloom, 2011). This thesis integrates these two lines of research. Six studies examined judgments about two consecutive events (intentional actions and physical events) in chains leading to positive as well as negative outcomes. The intentional action was the same action (e.g. a man started a fire) that differed in motive (positive or negative). The physical event had the same causal effect as the action (e.g., a lightning strike started a fire), or was a physical event (e.g., strong wind) that occurred later in the causal chain. The results replicate previous findings that when both actions and outcomes are negative, participants rate intentional actions more causal and blameworthy than physical events. However, when the intended outcomes fail to eventuate or positively motivated actions pre-empt positive outcomes, two distinct patterns emerged: A mismatch effect that explains the cause of the outcome; and a motive effect that explains judgments of culpability (measured by judgments of blame and punitiveness in these studies). Specifically, judgments of cause, responsibility, intentionality and foresight follow the same pattern that reflects the congruence between the valence of the agent‟s motive and the outcome. In contrast, judgments of culpability follow a different pattern where motive and outcome information have independent effects. Notably, it is the moral intent of actions that primarily determines judgments of culpability. The valence of the outcome plays a secondary role and amplifies ratings. These results show that the important psychological and legal concepts of intentionality, abnormality, foresight, proximity, and outcome information are core determinants in lay attributions (e.g., Hart & Honoré, 1985; Heider, 1958; Kelley, 1973; Weiner, 1995). But it is valence that plays the critical role in shaping lay reasoning. Several theoretical approaches applied in previous research on causal chains are examined, for example, Alicke's (2000) culpable control model, Tetlock's (2002) social functionalist model, and Spellman's (1997) crediting causality model. Yet none of the theories are able to account for the findings for chains that include positive actions or positive outcomes. The theoretical scope of this thesis was expanded in Study 6 to include research on the folk concept of intentionality, hindsight, and actor-observer biases (Fischhoff, 1975; Kashima, McKintyre, & Clifford, 1998; Malle & Knobe, 1997; Malle, Knobe, & Nelson, 2007). The results are interpreted in terms of Sloman, Fernbach and Ewings' (2012) causal model of intentionality.</p>

Judgments in causal chains: The impact of positive and negative motives and outcomes on lay attributions

<p>Research on attributions about several events in causal chains has focused on chains ending in negative outcomes and has not examined positive outcomes and actions (e.g., Hilton, McClure, & Sutton, 2010; Lagnado & Channon, 2008; McClure, Hilton, & Sutton, 2007). On the other hand, research on attributions for positive and negative events has examined judgments about one event in the chain and has not examined effects on other causes in the chain or made comparative judgments about physical causes that produce similar effects to actions (e.g., Alicke, 1992; Alicke, Rose, & Bloom, 2011). This thesis integrates these two lines of research. Six studies examined judgments about two consecutive events (intentional actions and physical events) in chains leading to positive as well as negative outcomes. The intentional action was the same action (e.g. a man started a fire) that differed in motive (positive or negative). The physical event had the same causal effect as the action (e.g., a lightning strike started a fire), or was a physical event (e.g., strong wind) that occurred later in the causal chain. The results replicate previous findings that when both actions and outcomes are negative, participants rate intentional actions more causal and blameworthy than physical events. However, when the intended outcomes fail to eventuate or positively motivated actions pre-empt positive outcomes, two distinct patterns emerged: A mismatch effect that explains the cause of the outcome; and a motive effect that explains judgments of culpability (measured by judgments of blame and punitiveness in these studies). Specifically, judgments of cause, responsibility, intentionality and foresight follow the same pattern that reflects the congruence between the valence of the agent‟s motive and the outcome. In contrast, judgments of culpability follow a different pattern where motive and outcome information have independent effects. Notably, it is the moral intent of actions that primarily determines judgments of culpability. The valence of the outcome plays a secondary role and amplifies ratings. These results show that the important psychological and legal concepts of intentionality, abnormality, foresight, proximity, and outcome information are core determinants in lay attributions (e.g., Hart & Honoré, 1985; Heider, 1958; Kelley, 1973; Weiner, 1995). But it is valence that plays the critical role in shaping lay reasoning. Several theoretical approaches applied in previous research on causal chains are examined, for example, Alicke's (2000) culpable control model, Tetlock's (2002) social functionalist model, and Spellman's (1997) crediting causality model. Yet none of the theories are able to account for the findings for chains that include positive actions or positive outcomes. The theoretical scope of this thesis was expanded in Study 6 to include research on the folk concept of intentionality, hindsight, and actor-observer biases (Fischhoff, 1975; Kashima, McKintyre, & Clifford, 1998; Malle & Knobe, 1997; Malle, Knobe, & Nelson, 2007). The results are interpreted in terms of Sloman, Fernbach and Ewings' (2012) causal model of intentionality.</p>

Digital well-being theory and research

Digital well-being concerns individuals’ subjective well-being in a social environment where digital media are omnipresent. A general framework is developed to integrate empirical research toward a cumulative science of the impacts of digital media use on well-being. It describes the nature of and connections between three pivotal constructs: digital practices, harms/benefits, and well-being. Individual’s digital practices arise within and shape socio-technical structural conditions, and lead to often concomitant harms and benefits. These pathways are theoretically plausible causal chains that lead from a specific manifestation of digital practice to an individual well-being-related outcome with some regularity. Future digital well-being studies should prioritize descriptive validity and formal theory development.

Postmortem investigations and identification of multiple causes of child deaths: An analysis of findings from the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network

Background The current burden of >5 million deaths yearly is the focus of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) to end preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5 years old by 2030. To accelerate progression toward this goal, data are needed that accurately quantify the leading causes of death, so that interventions can target the common causes. By adding postmortem pathology and microbiology studies to other available data, the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network provides comprehensive evaluations of conditions leading to death, in contrast to standard methods that rely on data from medical records and verbal autopsy and report only a single underlying condition. We analyzed CHAMPS data to characterize the value of considering multiple causes of death. Methods and findings We examined deaths identified from December 2016 through November 2020 from 7 CHAMPS sites (in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Africa), including 741 neonatal, 278 infant, and 241 child <5 years deaths for which results from Determination of Cause of Death (DeCoDe) panels were complete. DeCoDe panelists included all conditions in the causal chain according to the ICD-10 guidelines and assessed if prevention or effective management of the condition would have prevented the death. We analyzed the distribution of all conditions listed as causal, including underlying, antecedent, and immediate causes of death. Among 1,232 deaths with an underlying condition determined, we found a range of 0 to 6 (mean 1.5, IQR 0 to 2) additional conditions in the causal chain leading to death. While pathology provides very helpful clues, we cannot always be certain that conditions identified led to death or occurred in an agonal stage of death. For neonates, preterm birth complications (most commonly respiratory distress syndrome) were the most common underlying condition (n = 282, 38%); among those with preterm birth complications, 256 (91%) had additional conditions in causal chains, including 184 (65%) with a different preterm birth complication, 128 (45%) with neonatal sepsis, 69 (24%) with lower respiratory infection (LRI), 60 (21%) with meningitis, and 25 (9%) with perinatal asphyxia/hypoxia. Of the 278 infant deaths, 212 (79%) had ≥1 additional cause of death (CoD) beyond the underlying cause. The 2 most common underlying conditions in infants were malnutrition and congenital birth defects; LRI and sepsis were the most common additional conditions in causal chains, each accounting for approximately half of deaths with either underlying condition. Of the 241 child deaths, 178 (75%) had ≥1 additional condition. Among 46 child deaths with malnutrition as the underlying condition, all had ≥1 other condition in the causal chain, most commonly sepsis, followed by LRI, malaria, and diarrheal disease. Including all positions in the causal chain for neonatal deaths resulted in 19-fold and 11-fold increases in attributable roles for meningitis and LRI, respectively. For infant deaths, the proportion caused by meningitis and sepsis increased by 16-fold and 11-fold, respectively; for child deaths, sepsis and LRI are increased 12-fold and 10-fold, respectively. While comprehensive CoD determinations were done for a substantial number of deaths, there is potential for bias regarding which deaths in surveillance areas underwent minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS), potentially reducing representativeness of findings. Conclusions Including conditions that appear anywhere in the causal chain, rather than considering underlying condition alone, markedly changed the proportion of deaths attributed to various diagnoses, especially LRI, sepsis, and meningitis. While CHAMPS methods cannot determine when 2 conditions cause death independently or may be synergistic, our findings suggest that considering the chain of events leading to death can better guide research and prevention priorities aimed at reducing child deaths.

Arming a few dictators but not others: The politics of UK arms sales to Chile (1973–1989) and Argentina (1976–1983)

The United Kingdom imposed an arms embargo on Chile in 1974 but not on Argentina after the 1976 coup, despite brutal military dictatorships in both countries. What explains this difference? What can this difference reveal about the determinants of government decisions regarding arms exports? Using mainly archival evidence, this article demonstrates that this difference is explained by a stronger advocacy network in the United Kingdom campaigning on Chile, which was largely due to a greater identification of the British left with the Chilean struggle. The hub of this network was the Chile Solidarity Campaign, which mediated the influence of the transnational anti-Pinochet movement on the UK government. These findings suggest that shared values or identities make transnational issues more likely to resonate with domestic audiences. Evidence also indicates the importance of activists’ connections with gatekeepers, focus on specific arms deals, and demonstrated causal chains between arms exports and repression.

Placebo From an Enactive Perspective

Due to their complexity and variability, placebo effects remain controversial. We suggest this is also due to a set of problematic assumptions (dualism, reductionism, individualism, passivity). We critically assess current explanations and empirical evidence and propose an alternative theoretical framework—the enactive approach to life and mind—based on recent developments in embodied cognitive science. We review core enactive concepts such as autonomy, agency, and sense-making. Following these ideas, we propose a move from binary distinctions (e.g., conscious vs. non-conscious) to the more workable categories of reflective and pre-reflective activity. We introduce an ontology of individuation, following the work of Gilbert Simondon, that allow us to see placebo interventions not as originating causal chains, but as modulators and triggers in the regulation of tensions between ongoing embodied and interpersonal processes. We describe these interrelated processes involving looping effects through three intertwined dimensions of embodiment: organic, sensorimotor, and intersubjective. Finally, we defend the need to investigate therapeutic interactions in terms of participatory sense-making, going beyond the identification of individual social traits (e.g., empathy, trust) that contribute to placebo effects. We discuss resonances and differences between the enactive proposal, popular explanations such as expectations and conditioning, and other approaches based on meaning responses and phenomenological/ecological ideas.

Mechanisms of Authoritarian Image Management

How exactly do authoritarian states manage their image abroad, and what are the causal chains linking their activities to their desired outcomes of internal and external security? This chapter proposes four sets of mechanisms to explain how authoritarian image management is meant to have tangible effects for states that undertake such a strategy. The framework categorizes specific tactics (i.e., soft power initiatives or silencing exiles) into higher-order groupings of mechanisms. The idea is to create a framework that can facilitate case study and comparative causal analysis across a range of contexts. Four mechanisms are proposed that vary along two dimensions: their form (promotional vs. obstructive) and their intended target (diffuse vs. specific). The chapter provides the tools to trace the causal processes associated with authoritarian image management.

Improvisation, Transposition, and Elaboration

Chapter 4 jettisons the standard account of Altman’s “transpositional” script-to-screen strategy, in which he is said to have casually discarded the script in favor of the anarchic possibilities of communal filmmaking. Comparing preproduction scripts with final films, this chapter clearly establishes these films’ “improvisatory ceilings,” revealing the extent to which Altman’s approach depends on retaining rather than rejecting his scripts’ scenic and narrative structures. It is around these causal chains that Altman economizes, rejecting redundancy as well as thematic and dramatic cliché. This makes room for multiple forms of elaboration—including constrained versions of the improvisatory flourishes and reimagining of character traits that underwrite his reputation, but also involving the improvisation of thematic motifs, the multiplication of “middleground” characters, and the creation of affordances for favored stylistic techniques. While Altman’s practices are remarkably consistent throughout the early 1970s, later scripts display interesting innovations anticipating and accommodating Altman’s practice-oriented preferences.