Preliminary modeling estimates of the relative transmissibility and immune escape of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern in South Africa

We develop a stochastic, multi-strain, compartmental epidemic model to estimate the relative transmissibility and immune escape of the Omicron variant of concern (VOC) in South Africa. The model integrates population, non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccines, and epidemiological data and it is calibrated in the period May 1st, 2021 - November 23rd, 2021. We explore a parameter space of relative transmissibility with respect to the Delta variant and immune escape for Omicron by assuming an initial seeding, from unknown origin, in the first week of October 2021. We identify a region of the parameter space where combinations of relative transmissibility and immune escape are compatible with the growth of the epidemic wave. We also find that changes in the generation time associated with Omicron infections strongly affect the results concerning its relative transmissibility. The presented results are informed by current knowledge of Omicron and subject to changes.

Switchover phenomenon induced by epidemic seeding on geometric networks

It is a fundamental question in disease modeling how the initial seeding of an epidemic, spreading over a network, determines its final outcome. One important goal has been to find the seed configuration, which infects the most individuals. Although the identified optimal configurations give insight into how the initial state affects the outcome of an epidemic, they are unlikely to occur in real life. In this paper we identify two important seeding scenarios, both motivated by historical data, that reveal a complex phenomenon. In one scenario, the seeds are concentrated on the central nodes of a network, while in the second one, they are spread uniformly in the population. Comparing the final size of the epidemic started from these two initial conditions through data-driven and synthetic simulations on real and modeled geometric metapopulation networks, we find evidence for a switchover phenomenon: When the basic reproduction number R0 is close to its critical value, more individuals become infected in the first seeding scenario, but for larger values of R0, the second scenario is more dangerous. We find that the switchover phenomenon is amplified by the geometric nature of the underlying network and confirm our results via mathematically rigorous proofs, by mapping the network epidemic processes to bond percolation. Our results expand on the previous finding that, in the case of a single seed, the first scenario is always more dangerous and further our understanding of why the sizes of consecutive waves of a pandemic can differ even if their epidemic characters are similar.

Risk of COVID-19 variant importation - How useful are travel control measures?

We consider models for the importation of a new variant COVID-19 strain in a location already seeing propagation of a resident variant. By distinguishing contaminations generated by imported cases from those originating in the community, we are able to evaluate the contribution of importations to the dynamics of the disease in a community. We find that after an initial seeding, the role of importations becomes marginal compared to that of community-based propagation. We also evaluate the role of two travel control measures, quarantine and travel interruptions. We conclude that quarantine is an efficacious way of lowering importation rates, while travel interruptions have the potential to delay the consequences of importations but need to be applied within a very tight time window following the initial emergence of the variant.

Denitrifying bacteria respond to and shape microscale gradients within particulate matrices

Heterotrophic denitrification enables facultative anaerobes to continue growing even when limited by oxygen (O2) availability. Particles in particular provide physical matrices characterized by reduced O2 permeability even in well-oxygenated bulk conditions, creating microenvironments where microbial denitrifiers may proliferate. Whereas numerical particle models generally describe denitrification as a function of radius, here we provide evidence for heterogeneity of intraparticle denitrification activity due to local interactions within and among microcolonies. Pseudomonas aeruginosa cells and microcolonies act to metabolically shade each other, fostering anaerobic processes just microns from O2-saturated bulk water. Even within well-oxygenated fluid, suboxia and denitrification reproducibly developed and migrated along sharp 10 to 100 µm gradients, driven by the balance of oxidant diffusion and local respiration. Moreover, metabolic differentiation among densely packed cells is dictated by the diffusional supply of O2, leading to distinct bimodality in the distribution of nitrate and nitrite reductase expression. The initial seeding density controls the speed at which anoxia develops, and even particles seeded with few bacteria remain capable of becoming anoxic. Our empirical results capture the dynamics of denitrifier gene expression in direct association with O2 concentrations over microscale physical matrices, providing observations of the co-occurrence and spatial arrangement of aerobic and anaerobic processes.

Modeling transfer of vaginal microbiota from mother to infant in early life

Early-life microbiota has been linked to the development of chronic inflammatory diseases. It has been hypothesized that maternal vaginal microbiota is an important initial seeding source and therefore might have lifelong effects on disease risk. To understand maternal vaginal microbiota’s role in seeding the child’s microbiota and the extent of delivery mode-dependent transmission, we studied 665 mother–child dyads from the COPSAC2010 cohort. The maternal vaginal microbiota was evaluated twice in the third trimester and compared with the children’s fecal (at 1 week, 1 month, and 1 year of age) and airway microbiota (at 1 week, 1 month, and 3 months). Based on the concept of weighted transfer ratios (WTRs), we have identified bacterial orders for which the WTR displays patterns indicate persistent or transient transfer from the maternal vaginal microbiome, as well as orders that are shared at later time points independent of delivery mode, indicating a common reservoir.

Stability of the vaginal microbiota during pregnancy and its importance for early infant colonization

Early life microbiota has been linked to the development of chronic inflammatory diseases. It has been hypothesized that maternal vaginal microbiota is an important initial seeding source and therefore can have lifelong effects on disease risk. To understand maternal vaginal microbiota’s role in seeding the child’s microbiota and the extent of delivery mode-dependent transmission, we studied 700 mother-child dyads from the COPSAC2010 cohort.The maternal vaginal microbiota was evaluated in the third trimester and compared with the children’s fecal and airway microbiota.The vaginal samples displayed known stable community state types and only 1:6 changed over time. Only one OTU was significantly transferred to children’s fecal compartment, but an inflated number had positive transfer odds. A few taxonomic families showed early transfer enrichment to vaginally-born children, indicating vertical transfer, while half of the observed transfer effects were delivery mode independent enrichment with attenuating strength over time, indicating a common reservoir.