Depth–Duration–Frequency Relationship Model of Extreme Precipitation in Flood Risk Assessment in the Upper Vistula Basin

The Upper Vistula Basin is a flood-prone region in the summer season (May–October) due to intensive rainfall. From the point of view of water management, it is particularly important to assess the variability in this main factor of flood risk, as well as to establish the depth–duration–frequency (DDF) relationship for maximum precipitation, this having not yet been derived for the region. The analysis of a 68-year (1951–2018) data series of summer maximum precipitation collected by 11 meteorological stations showed the series’ stationarity, which supports the conclusion that there is no increase in the risk of rainfall floods due to the intensification of extreme precipitation. A new approach is proposed for the determination of the DDF relationship, where the best-fitted distribution for each station is selected from among the set of candidate distributions, instead of adopting one fixed distribution for all stations. This approach increases the accuracy of the DDF relationships for individual stations as compared to the commonly used approach. In particular, the traditionally used Gumbel distribution turns out to be not well fitted to the investigated data series, and the advantage of the recently popular GEV distribution is not significant.

Overlooked evidence for semantic compositionality and signal reduction in wild chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes)

Recent discoveries of semantic compositionality in Japanese tits have enlivened the discussions on the presence of this phenomenon in wild animal communication. Data on semantic compositionality in wild apes are lacking, even though language experiments with captive apes have demonstrated they are capable of semantic compositionality. In this paper, I revisit the study by Boesch (Hum. Evol. 6:81–89, 1991) who investigated drumming sequences by an alpha male in a chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes) community in the Taï National Park, Côte d’Ivoire. A reanalysis of the data reveals that the alpha male produced semantically compositional combined messages of travel direction change and resting period initiation. Unlike the Japanese tits, the elements of the compositional expression were not simply juxtaposed but displayed structural reduction, while one of the two elements in the expression coded the meanings of both elements. These processes show relative resemblance to blending and fusion in human languages. Also unlike the tits, the elements of the compositional expression did not have a fixed order, although there was a fixed distribution of drumming events across the trees used for drumming. Because the elements of the expression appear to carry verb-like meanings, the compositional expression also resembles simple verb-verb constructions and short paratactic combinations of two clauses found across languages. In conclusion, the reanalysis suggests that semantic compositionality and phenomena resembling paratactic combinations of two clauses might have been present in the communication of the last common ancestor of chimpanzees and humans, not necessarily in the vocal modality.

The Buck-Passing Game

We consider two classes of games in which players are the vertices of a directed graph. Initially, nature chooses one player according to some fixed distribution and gives the player a buck. This player passes the buck to one of the player’s out-neighbors in the graph. The procedure is repeated indefinitely. In one class of games, each player wants to minimize the asymptotic expected frequency of times that the player receives the buck. In the other class of games, the player wants to maximize it. The PageRank game is a particular case of these maximizing games. We consider deterministic and stochastic versions of the game, depending on how players select the neighbor to which to pass the buck. In both cases, we prove the existence of pure equilibria that do not depend on the initial distribution; this is achieved by showing the existence of a generalized ordinal potential. If the graph on which the game is played admits a Hamiltonian cycle, then this is the outcome of prior-free Nash equilibrium in the minimizing game. For the minimizing game, we then use the price of anarchy and stability to measure fairness of these equilibria.

Transition models for count data: a flexible alternative to fixed distribution models

A flexible semiparametric class of models is introduced that offers an alternative to classical regression models for count data as the Poisson and Negative Binomial model, as well as to more general models accounting for excess zeros that are also based on fixed distributional assumptions. The model allows that the data itself determine the distribution of the response variable, but, in its basic form, uses a parametric term that specifies the effect of explanatory variables. In addition, an extended version is considered, in which the effects of covariates are specified nonparametrically. The proposed model and traditional models are compared in simulations and by utilizing several real data applications from the area of health and social science.

Mathematical approach to the psychological aspects of human

Belonging to a group, there are people who are always bullied no matter how they behave. They don't know how to treat their own emotions. So, I considered human emotions. I mathematically modeled human emotion processing in two stages: what kind of emotions we receive from events and how we react from the emotions we receive. The part that receives emotions from events and the part that responds from emotions are modeled by a one-dimensional random walk or Wiener process, and the distribution of individual emotions is represented by a fixed probability distribution. Therefore, I also showed that when individuals gather to form a group, the distribution of emotions is also represented by a fixed distribution. In addition, I showed as application examples of these models, the nature of events, the meaning of emotional distribution, and how to read the air, and how to deal with one's character, and how to show one’s reaction and what to do for events which have a large magnitude. *This paper is a revised version of these papers, https://psyarxiv.com/k3j4z/, https://psyarxiv.com/yrd9v/, https://psyarxiv.com/36g5w/.

Mathematical approach to human emotion processing

When I belonged to a group, I was always bullied no matter how I behaved, so I didn't know how to handle my own emotions, so I considered human emotions. I mathematically modeled human emotion processing in two stages: what kind of emotions we receive from events and how we react from the emotions we receive. The part that receives emotions from events and the part that responds from emotions are modeled by a one-dimensional random walk or Wiener process, and the distribution of individual emotions is represented by a fixed probability distribution, and the response of individual is represented by a fixed distribution. Therefore, I also showed that when individuals gather to form a group, the distribution of emotions and reactions as a group is also represented by a fixed distribution. In addition, I showed as application examples of these models, the nature of events, the meaning of emotional distribution, and how to read the air, and so on.

Mathematical approach to human reaction

I thought about how to get the magnitude from the event and the reaction of the other party. Evaluating the values of events and opponents' reactions using a one-dimensional random walk shows that the probability density function of the values of events and opponents' reactions has a fixed probability distribution. Similarly, I have shown that the functions that determine the magnitude of events and reactions are also represented by a fixed distribution. Therefore, I also showed that when individuals gather to form a group, the functions that determine the magnitude of events and reactions as a group are also represented by a fixed distribution. Also, as an application example of this model, I described how to show my reaction and what to do when the magnitude of the event is large.

Mathematical approach to human emotion processing

When I belonged to a group, I was always bullied no matter how I behaved, so I didn't know how to handle my own emotions, so I considered human emotions. I mathematically modeled human emotion processing in two stages: what kind of emotions we receive from events and how we react from the emotions we receive. The part that receives emotions from events and the part that responds from emotions are modeled by a one-dimensional random walk or Wiener process, and the distribution of individual emotions is represented by a fixed probability distribution, and the response of individual is represented by a fixed distribution. Therefore, I also showed that when individuals gather to form a group, the distribution of emotions and reactions as a group is also represented by a fixed distribution. In addition, I showed as application examples of these models, the nature of events, the meaning of emotional distribution, and how to read the air, and so on.

Negative Sampling in Knowledge Representation Learning: A Mini-Review

Knowledge representation learning (KRL) aims at encoding components of a knowledge graph (KG) into a low-dimensional continuous space, which has brought considerable successes in applying deep learning to graph embedding. Most famous KGs contain only positive instances for space efficiency. Typical KRL techniques, especially translational distance-based models, are trained through discriminating positive and negative samples. Thus, negative sampling is unquestionably a non-trivial step in KG embedding. The quality of generated negative samples can directly influence the performance of final knowledge representations in downstream tasks, such as link prediction and triple classification. This review summarizes current negative sampling methods in KRL and we categorize them into three sorts, fixed distribution-based, generative adversarial net (GAN)-based and cluster sampling. Based on this categorization we discuss the most prevalent existing approaches and their characteristics.

Importance Hierarchy of Surrogate Medical Decision Making Determinants: A Q-Methodology Study in Middle Eastern and East Asian Men

Background Factors other than patient’s preference may influence surrogate medical decision making in a culture- and viewpoint-dependent way. We explored the importance hierarchy of potential surrogate medical decision making determinants to Middle-Eastern (ME) and East-Asian (EA) men according to their norm-perception (N-viewpoint), preference as patients (P-viewpoint), and preference as surrogate decision-makers (S-viewpoint). Methods Each respondent (120 ME, 120 EA) sorted 28 items reflecting potential determinants into a fixed distribution of importance hierarchy according to the three viewpoints. Latent decision making models were explored by by-person factor analysis (Q-methodology). Results Six models were identified for each ME and EA viewpoint (total 36). Patient’s health-related, patient’s preference-related, and society’s interests-related determinants were strongly embraced in 34, 3, and zero models and strongly discounted in 2, 5, and 21 models, respectively. Patient’s religious/spiritual belief was strongly embraced in 6 EA models compared to 2 ME models and strongly discounted in 2 EA models compared to 5 ME models. Further, family-centric and surrogate’s interest-related determinants were strongly embraced in 8 EA models compared to 1 ME model. They were also strongly embraced in 5 P-viewpoint compared to 2 S-viewpoint models and strongly discounted in 4 P-viewpoint compared to 11 S-viewpoint models. Despite the overall predominance of patient’s health-related determinants and culture- and viewpoint-dependent differences, Q-methodology analysis identified relatively patient’s preference-influenced, religious/spiritual beliefs–influenced, emotion-influenced, and familism-influenced models and showed notable overlap in models. Conclusions Patient’s health was more important than other potential medical surrogate decision making determinants, including patient’s preference, for both ME and EA men and in all viewpoints. The relative importance of some determinants was culture- and viewpoint- dependent and allowed description of different albeit overlapping models.