Estimation of aggregate losses of secondary cancer cases using PH Panjer class (a,b,1) distributions,

This research in-cooperates phase type distributions of Panjer class \((a,b,1)\) in estimation of aggregate loss probabilities of secondary cancer. Matrices of the phase type distributions are derived using Chapman-Kolmogorov equation and transition probabilities estimated using modified Kaplan-Meir and consequently the transition intensities and transition probabilities. Stationary probabilities of the Markov chains represents $\vec{\gamma}$. Claim amount are modeled using OPPL, TPPL, Pareto, Generalized Pareto and Wei-bull distributions. PH ZT Poisson with Generalized Pareto distribution provided the best fit.

On Nonparametric Conditional Quantile Estimation for Non-stationary Random

A kernel conditional quantile estimate of a real-valued non-stationary spatial process is proposed for a prediction goal at a non-observed location of the underlying process. The originality is based on the ability to take into account some local spatial dependency. Large sample properties based on almost complete and \(L^q\)-consistencies of the estimator are established. A numerical study is given in order to illustrate the performance of our methodology.

Simultaneous Joint Lower and Upper record values Probability Laws for Absolutely Continuous or Discrete Data

This paper investigates the probability density function (pdf) of the \((2n-1)\)-vector \((n\geq 1)\) of both lower and upper record values for a sequence of independent random variables with common \textit{pdf} \(f\) defined on the same probability space, provided that the lower and upper record times are finite up to \(n\). A lot is known about the lower or the upper record values when they are studied separately. When put together, the challenges are far complicated. The rare results in the literature still present some flaws. This paper begins a new and complete investigation with a few number of records: (n=2\) and \(n=3\). Lessons from these simple cases will allow addressing the general formulation of simultaneous joint lower-upper records.

Moments estimators and omnibus chi-square tests for some usual probability laws

For many probability laws, in parametric models, the estimation of the parameters can be done in the frame of the maximum likelihood method, or in the frame of moment estimation methods, or by using the plug-in method, etc. Usually, for estimating more than one parameter, the same frame is used. We focus on the moment estimation method in this paper. We use the instrumental tool of the functional empirical process (fep) in Lo (2016) to show how it is practical to derive, almost algebraically, the joint distribution Gaussian law and to derive omnibus chi-square asymptotic laws from it. We choose four distributions to illustrate the method (Gamma law, beta law, Uniform law and Fisher law) and completely describe the asymptotic laws of the moment estimators whenever possible. Simulations studies are performed to investigate for each case the smallest sizes for which the obtained statistical tests are recommendable. Generally, the omnibus chi-square test proposed here work fine with sample sizes around fifty.

A Log-Beta Rayleigh Lomax Regression Model

For the first time, a location-scale regression model based on the logarithm of an extended Raleigh Lomax distribution which has the ability to deal and model of any survival data than classical regression model is introduced. We obtain the estimate for the model parameters using the method of maximum likelihood by considering breast cancer data. In addition, normal probability plot of the residual is used to detect the outliers and evaluate model assumptions. We use a real data set to illustrate the performance of the new model, some of its submodels and classical models consider in the study. Also, we perform the statistics AIC, BIC and CAIC to select the most appropriate model among those regression models considered in the study.

Graduation of term assurance data using frailty approach

Frailty models have been used in literature to account for heterogeneity among insureds in-terms of mortality. In this article, we compare the gamma and the non-central gamma as frailty distributions with the exponentiated exponential and exponentiated Weibull as baseline hazards. We adopt a fully Bayesian approach to calibrate the baselines based on crude mortality rates from a major Kenyan insurer. Comparing the gamma-exponentiated Weibull with the non-central gamma-exponentiated Weibull models shows that the non-central gamma provides a good fit to the real life data-set and is therefore recommended for valuation.

The New Odd Lindley-G Power Series Class of Distributions: Theory, Properties and Applications

We propose a new generalized class of distributions called the odd Lindley-G Power Series (OL-GPS) family of distributions and a special class, namely, odd Lindley-Weibull power series (OL-WPS) family of distributions. We also derive the structural properties of the OL-GPS family of distributions including moments, order statistics, Rényi entropy, mean and median deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, and maximum likelihood estimates. Sub-models of the special cases were also obtained together with their structural properties. A simulation study to examine the consistency of the maximum likelihood estimators for each parameter is presented. Finally, real data examples are presented to illustrate the applicability and usefulness of the proposed model

A Stepwise Procedure for Toxicity Studies Based on Ratio of two means

This paper proposes a stepwise confidence set procedure for identifying equivalence or safety of compounds in a toxicity study under heteroscedasticity of variances for a normally distributed data. The problem of statistical methodology for drug safety is the control of the familywise error rate (FWER). Hence, we construct a confidence set procedure for toxicological evaluation and incorporating the partitioning principle with a case of heteroscedascity of variances under normal assumption. Our simulation studies demonstrated that the power of the procedures for heterogeneity of variances increases with increasing in ratio of means.

Applying of the Extreme Value Theory for determining extreme claims in the automobile insurance sector: Case of a China car insurance

According to the Chinese Health Statistics Yearbook, in 2005, the number of traffic accidents was 187781 with total direct property losses of 103691.7 (10000 Yuan). This research aims to fill the gap in the literature by investigating the extreme claim sizes not only for the entire portfolio. This empirical study investigates the behavior of the upper tail of the claim size by class of policyholders.