The Estimation of Newly Infected Cases of Covid-19 with Consideration of Governmental Action and Behavior of People in Iran

The Novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused 414179 infected cases and 18440 deaths up to March 25, 2020. The aim of this study was to estimate the new cases of COVID-19 in future days in Iran based on multiple factors such as governmental actions and peoplechr('39')s behavior. We constructed the model based on governmental actions, peoplechr('39')s behavior and lag time for governmental action. We estimated the governmental actions ratio and people’s behavior with minimum sum square error with OptQuest arena software. By estimation the new cases under three scenarios for governmental actions, we predicted the new cases and cumulative death for different genders for all scenarios. Based on the first scenario, the maximum number of newly infected cases was 3117. Total cumulative death for 110th day for males and females respectively was 3157 and 2285. According to the second scenario, the maximum number of newly infected cases was 3117. Total cumulative death for 151st day for males and females respectively was 3504 and 2536. By selecting the third scenario, there were two peak points. In the first peak point, the maximum number of newly infected cases was 3117. In the second peak, the maximum number of newly infected cases was 3190. Based on the result of this study, it seems that the best option for the government is to keep social distance and close economic activity, so the number of new cases will be decreased.

Effect of the Meteorological Parameters on the Indoor PM2.5 and PM10 Concentrations in a Hospital

Exposure to the particulate matter is related to a variety of acute and chronic health effects. Also, it is an important factor in the indoor air quality in hospitals. The present study aimed to determine the effect of meteorological parameters on the indoor PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations in the operation room, pediatric, and intensive care unit wards in the hospital in Kashan, Iran. The PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations were measured at two indoor sites and one outdoor site in each one of the wards from March to May 2015. Also, the wind rose was drawn for determining the Prevailing wind. The mean indoor and outdoor PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations increased during the study period. The results obtained of wind rose showed that the prevailing wind (4.5% of the entire winds) was the direction of the west-southwest. Also, the highest mean outdoor PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations were related to the ambient wind directions of the east-northeast, the west, and the north-northwest in the operation room, pediatric and intensive care unit wards, respectively. According to the findings, there was a positive association between the indoor and outdoor PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations in the wards. Also, the meteorological parameters played an important role in the indoor particle mass concentrations in the study wards in the hospital. The effective meteorological parameters on the particle concentrations were the ambient temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and rainfall in the hospital. It is asking for improving the indoor air quality of managers and officials to protect the patients and staff against transferred diseases by the particles in the wards in the hospital.