Lokalvalget 2019: Et fremoverskuende valg?

This introductory chapter presents some general features of the Norwegian Local Election Study of 2019. First, we take a close look at the conditions that shaped the 2019 local elections, especially the municipal amalgamation reform. The number of municipalities – 428 at the time of the 2015 local elections – had been reduced to 356 for the 2019 elections, and as a result, many voters cast their votes in a new, merged political unit – yet prior to the actual merger’s implementation. Next, we briefly review the history of the Norwegian Local Election Studies and then present the chapters in the book. The subsequent sections include a more detailed description of the data material on which the book is based and the voter survey in particular. We conclude with some reflections on the way ahead for Norwegian local election research.

Nasjonale partier og lokale lister i kommunestyrevalgene 2015 og 2019

The term local party systems suggests that party systems not only vary between municipalities, but that the systems also have a local dimension. This chapter is concerned with the balance between national parties and the local lists in municipal council elections in Norway. We also examine whether municipal amalgamation reform has changed the balance between these types of parties. Our analyses show that the correspondence between the party system in the parliament (“Stortinget”) and in the municipal councils is strong in Norwegian municipalities. One consequence of the municipal reform is that constituencies have become larger (on average), and more representatives are being elected to the municipal councils. By comparing merged and non-merged municipalities over two elections, we find that the reform has contributed to greater party diversity in the municipal councils. This applies both to the supply of lists that stand for election and the number of lists that are represented in the municipal councils. The municipal reform, on the other hand, does not seem to have contributed to greater party diversity in the form of more or fewer local lists.

Kommunereformen – en reform uten konsekvenser?

The outcome of Norway’s largely voluntary 2014–2020 structural local government reform relied heavily on positive citizen’ attitudes towards merging with neighboring municipalities. In the present chapter, we investigate how citizens assessed the potential outcomes of prospective mergers, in terms of service delivery, local democracy and local identity. Contrary to assumptions about “rational” voters, the largest group of respondents reported a set attitude towards merger although they did not foresee any significant consequences. Because a stated aim of the reform was to counter societal and demographic developments that could otherwise jeopardize service delivery and local democracy, the “no consequences” assessment can be interpreted as trust and support in the government’s arguments in support of the reform. A key point in the analysis is that citizens’ assessments of the consequences of a merger were related to whether their own municipality was set to become a center or a periphery in the new, merged unit. The implication is that perceived distributive outcomes affect support for a given merger.

Representasjon i nye storkommunar: Forgubbing og sentrumsdominans eller status quo?

The 2019 local elections in Norway were the first elections to be held in 47 amalgamated municipalities. Earlier research has shown that geography is an important list-balancing criterion in national elections, yet it is an under-researched aspect of descriptive representation in local elections. In this chapter we set out to fill this gap. Using the representation literature as a point of departure, we study the effect of merger on geographic representation and investigate whether stronger emphasis on geography increased the gender or age bias of the municipal councils in newly merged municipalities. To this end, we use candidate data from all local candidates in the 2019 local elections (N = 54254) as well as historic candidate data for previous elections. We combine this with qualitative party interviews to shed light on the parties’ nomination processes. We find that candidates from the smaller municipalities are overrepresented on the party lists as well as in the municipal councils of the 47 municipalities. This is the combined effect of party nomination practices and voters’ preferences. However, somewhat surprisingly, increased emphasis on geography did not affect age or gender balance to any great extent. The results for the newly merged municipalities fit well into the national trend, featuring slightly older and more gender-equal candidate lists across time. Geography thus seems to have been an additional list-balancing criterion, on top of, and not instead of, gender and age.

Loddet er kastet: Om bruken av innbyggerpaneler i lokalpolitikken

This chapter examines a citizens’ panel (a ‘mini-public’) that took place in the municipality of Bergen in 2018. We begin by discussing mini-publics as innovative measures to increase participation in political systems. In the literature, the internal quality of the panels – who is recruited and included on the panel and how opinion formation is organized – is emphasized. How mini-publics affect the political/representative political system – the external quality of the panels – has not been studied as thoroughly, and is therefore the analytical starting point for our chapter. In the empirical part of the chapter, we present the panel in Bergen, how it was recruited and organized, and the recommendations it made to decision-makers in the municipality. We also explore how citizens in Bergen assess these sorts of innovative democratic measures. The chapter ends with a discussion of the mini-public’s place in a representative democracy – are mini-publics supplements or alternatives?

Mobiliseringsvalget 2019: Hadde kommunereformen noen betydning?

Voter turnout in the Norwegian local election of 2019 rose from the previous election by about 5 percentage points, to 65 percent, which is higher than any other local election since 1991. Another unusual feature of the 2019 election was the implementation of a much-debated and politically contentious municipal amalgamation reform. Voters in municipalities that were to be merged on January 1st, 2020, voted in the new municipal councils in the election. Consequently, a key question in this chapter is whether or not a link exists between the rise in turnout and the municipal reform. We start, however, by looking at turnout more broadly. Who votes in local elections, and who abstains? By using sampled panel data from the Norwegian electoral roll that covers five consecutive elections, we find that habitual voters tend to be highly educated and middle-aged. The permanent abstainers constitute 9 percent of the electorate, and they often have immigrant backgrounds and no higher education. The analyses of the municipal reform reveal no overall significant effect on turnout. Small municipalities that were merged saw some rise in turnout, relative to larger merged municipalities. Indications are that the political issues that dominated the campaign had a mobilizing effect. Two large-scale government initiated get-out-the-vote efforts likely played some role in getting people to the polls.

Hva skjedde ved valget? Nasjonale trender og lokale variasjoner

The aim of this chapter is to provide a broad overview of national trends and local variations at the 2019 local elections – the first elections to be held in the new, merged municipalities and counties. Looking at the nationwide results, the government parties as well as the Labour Party suffered losses, while the other opposition parties – especially the Centre Party – were the winners. While welfare policy has been high on the voter agenda in previous elections, the environment and climate change were the most important issues this time, especially among young voters. The voter agenda nevertheless varied between municipalities. Climate and the environment were, like the issue of toll roads, most important in the cities. In many peripheral districts, on the other hand, amalgamation of municipalities and other centralizing public sector reforms were significant issues. The centre-periphery dimension is still important in Norwegian politics, and it has contributed to the Centre Party’s gains – particularly in a number of former Labour Party strongholds in northern Norway. Local conditions also contribute to variation. Looking at results from individual municipalities, local deviations from the national trend have increased. Moreover, an increasing share of voters says that local issues were important for their vote.

Hva kjennetegner velgere med høy lokalpolitisk tillit?

Why do some citizens trust in local political actors and institutions while others do not? With data from the Norwegian Local Election Survey 2019, we examine characteristics of citizens with high and low local political trust. The analyses indicate that trust in the different political actors and institutions is closely linked. For example, those who report high trust in the mayor also report high trust in politicians in general, in the municipal council, and in the municipal administration. In other words, people tend to have either high or low trust in the entire local political system. Furthermore, we find that trust in local political systems and actors is associated with a number of individual and contextual factors including the sense of belonging to the municipality, the use of municipal services, and political participation. Trust also seems to be linked to being on the winning team: those who voted for parties that won the election are more trustful than those who voted for parties that that did not win the election.

Hvem skal bestemme for oss? Velgernes syn på lokalpolitisk representasjon

This chapter focuses on voters’ opinions regarding political representation at the local level. The study analyses voters’ attitudes as well as actions. Most voters agree that representation reflective of gender and age, and to a somewhat lesser degree ethnicity, is important in local government. Most important, however, is the representation of various sub-municipal areas. Norwegian local elections are based on party lists, but voters may give candidates an extra personal vote. The candidate’s point of view regarding major issues and political experience are the most important factors when voters cast a personal vote. Furthermore, the voters emphasize the candidate’s attachment to a particular geographical part of the municipality, while the candidate’s ethnicity, gender and age are less relevant. The chapter shows that the characteristics of the candidates that the voters cast personal votes for correspond to the voters’ general attitudes towards gender and geographical representation. Attitudes towards the representation of age and ethnicity do not have an impact in this regard. In the 2019 local elections, many voters elected representatives to the local councils in new, merged municipalities. Voters living in former small municipalities that were to be merged with other municipalities paid more attention to geographical representation than other voters.

Nyheter, sosiale nettverk og lokalpolitisk orientering i lokalvalgkamp

In this chapter, we examine how voters relate to the local political public sphere through a study of the 2019 Norwegian local election. We ask whether local media and personal networks contribute to what we call “local political orientation”, measured by the degree to which voters consider local issues to be important for their vote choice and using the possibility of giving preference votes. We first study the voters’ overall news consumption in the election campaign, with particular emphasis on the role of social media. Then we investigate to what extent candidates running for election are included in voters’ offline networks (family, friends, acquaintances) and social media networks. Finally, we study whether different patterns of news consumption and offline and online political networks increase voters’ degree of local political orientation. Results show that voters use a wide range of news sources – national, local and social media – and that local media is considered more important in small municipalities. A large proportion of voters have political candidates in their personal network, but almost forty percent of those who have a political candidate as a Facebook friend have no candidate in their offline personal network. Hence, social media contribute to greater ties between voters and candidates in Norwegian local politics. Lastly, local media and personal networks do contribute to local political orientation, as they relate to an emphasis on local political issues and a tendency for giving preference votes (to candidates) at the election.