scholarly journals On the solar activity variations of nocturnal F region vertical drifts covering two solar cycles in the Indian longitude sector

2015 ◽  
Vol 120 (2) ◽  
pp. 1445-1451 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. K. Madhav Haridas ◽  
G. Manju ◽  
Tarun Kumar Pant
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
F Region

scholarly journals Equatorial ionospheric response to the 10.7 cm radio flux over two sunspot cycles (1969−1991)

1996 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 725-732
Author(s):  
L. A. Hajkowicz
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Geomagnetic Latitude ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Radio Flux ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Pronounced Difference ◽  
F Region ◽  
Diurnal Distribution ◽  
10.7 Cm Solar Flux

Abstract. It is evident that fluctuations in a standard ionospheric parameter, the minimum (virtual) height (h´F) of the equatorial F-region in the African (Ouagadougou), Asian (Manila) and American (Huancayo) longitudinal sectors, closely resemble changes in solar activity as deduced from the 10.7 cm solar flux index (S), over two solar cycles (1969–91). The monthly median hourly value of h´F, particularly in the post-sunset period (18–20 LT), are positively correlated with the monthly average S. The value of h´F can be deduced from an empirical formula: h´F=0.68S+218.3, with the correlation coefficient (r) between h´F and S being 0.78. The diurnal distribution of r during daytime (06–14 LT) was radically different for the African and Asian longitudinal sectors during 1980-1991, with the most pronounced difference in the post-noon period (12–14 LT) when the correlation coefficients r for the Asian and African sectors are 0.8 and 0.2, respectively. Thus, the daytime F-region in the African sector responded far less to changes in solar activity than the Asian F-region during this cycle. This longitudinal anomaly was however absent in the preceding cycle (1969–1979) when the African and Asian sectors were both characterised by low daytime and pronounced post-sunset correlation coefficient r. The American sector appears to have a high correlation coefficient r in daytime increasing to a small maximum in the post-sunset interval. The post-sunset enhancement in r is a characteristic feature for equatorial stations only (corrected geomagnetic latitude <10°).

scholarly journals On the Prediction of Solar Cycles

Solar Physics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 296 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Courtillot ◽  
F. Lopes ◽  
J. L. Le Mouël
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Transfer Function ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Activity Cycle ◽  
Solar Activity Cycle ◽  
Planetary Motion ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Jovian Planets

AbstractThis article deals with the prediction of the upcoming solar activity cycle, Solar Cycle 25. We propose that astronomical ephemeris, specifically taken from the catalogs of aphelia of the four Jovian planets, could be drivers of variations in solar activity, represented by the series of sunspot numbers (SSN) from 1749 to 2020. We use singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to associate components with similar periods in the ephemeris and SSN. We determine the transfer function between the two data sets. We improve the match in successive steps: first with Jupiter only, then with the four Jovian planets and finally including commensurable periods of pairs and pairs of pairs of the Jovian planets (following Mörth and Schlamminger in Planetary Motion, Sunspots and Climate, Solar-Terrestrial Influences on Weather and Climate, 193, 1979). The transfer function can be applied to the ephemeris to predict future cycles. We test this with success using the “hindcast prediction” of Solar Cycles 21 to 24, using only data preceding these cycles, and by analyzing separately two 130 and 140 year-long halves of the original series. We conclude with a prediction of Solar Cycle 25 that can be compared to a dozen predictions by other authors: the maximum would occur in 2026.2 (± 1 yr) and reach an amplitude of 97.6 (± 7.8), similar to that of Solar Cycle 24, therefore sketching a new “Modern minimum”, following the Dalton and Gleissberg minima.

Solar-type periodicities in the climate variability of Northern Fennoscandia during the last three centuries: Real influence of solar activity or natural instability in the climate system

The Holocene ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 095968362110604
Author(s):  
Maxim Ogurtsov ◽  
Samuli Helama ◽  
Risto Jalkanen ◽  
Högne Jungner ◽  
Markus Lindholm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Western Siberia ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Activity Data ◽  
The Past ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Northern Fennoscandia ◽  
Solar Type

Fifteen proxy records of summer temperature in Fennoscandia, Northern Europe and in Yamal and Taymir Peninsulas (Western Siberia) were analyzed for the AD 1700–2000 period. Century-long (70–100 year) and quasi bi-decadal periodicities were found from proxy records representing different parts of Fennoscandia. Decadal variation was revealed in a smaller number of records. Statistically significant correlations were revealed between the timescale-dependent components of temperature variability and solar cycles of Schwabe (~11 year), Hale (~22 year), and Gleissberg (сentury-long) as recorded in solar activity data. Combining the results from our correlation analysis with the evidence of solar-climatic linkages over the Northern Fennoscandia obtained over the past 20 years suggest that there are two possible explanations for the obtained solar-proxy relations: (a) the Sun’s activity actually influences the climate variability in Northern Fennoscandia and in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere albeit the mechanism of such solar-climatic linkages are yet to be detailed; (b) the revealed solar-type periodicities result from natural instability of climate system and, in such a case, the correlations may appear purely by chance. Multiple lines of evidence support the first assumption but we note that the second one cannot be yet rejected. Guidelines for further research to elucidate this question are proposed including the Fisher’s combined probability test in the presence of solar signal in multiple proxy records.

scholarly journals Topside equatorial zonal ion velocities measured by C/NOFS during rising solar activity

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. R. Coley ◽  
R. A. Stoneback ◽  
R. A. Heelis ◽  
M. R. Hairston
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Local Time ◽  
Geomagnetic Field ◽  
General Pattern ◽  
Magnetic Latitude ◽  
Ion Drifts ◽  
F Region ◽  
Westerly Flow ◽  
Solar Local Time ◽  
Ion Velocity

Abstract. The Ion Velocity Meter (IVM), a part of the Coupled Ion Neutral Dynamic Investigation (CINDI) instrument package on the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) spacecraft, has made over 5 yr of in situ measurements of plasma temperatures, composition, densities, and velocities in the 400–850 km altitude range of the equatorial ionosphere. These measured ion velocities are then transformed into a coordinate system with components parallel and perpendicular to the geomagnetic field allowing us to examine the zonal (horizontal and perpendicular to the geomagnetic field) component of plasma motion over the 2009–2012 interval. The general pattern of local time variation of the equatorial zonal ion velocity is well established as westward during the day and eastward during the night, with the larger nighttime velocities leading to a net ionospheric superrotation. Since the C/NOFS launch in April 2008, F10.7 cm radio fluxes have gradually increased from around 70 sfu to levels in the 130–150 sfu range. The comprehensive coverage of C/NOFS over the low-latitude ionosphere allows us to examine variations of the topside zonal ion velocity over a wide level of solar activity as well as the dependence of the zonal velocity on apex altitude (magnetic latitude), longitude, and solar local time. It was found that the zonal ion drifts show longitude dependence with the largest net eastward values in the American sector. The pre-midnight zonal drifts show definite solar activity (F10.7) dependence. The daytime drifts have a lower dependence on F10.7. The apex altitude (magnetic latitude) variations indicate a more westerly flow at higher altitudes. There is often a net topside subrotation at low F10.7 levels, perhaps indicative of a suppressed F region dynamo due to low field line-integrated conductivity and a low F region altitude at solar minimum.

scholarly journals Construction of a century solar chromosphere data set for solar activity related research

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 5-8
Author(s):  
Линь Ганхуа ◽  
Lin Ganghua ◽  
Ван Сяо-Фань ◽  
Wang Xiao Fan ◽  
Ян Сяо ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Abnormal Behavior ◽  
Solar Chromosphere ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Related Research ◽  
Data Mining Algorithms

This article introduces our ongoing project “Construction of a Century Solar Chromosphere Data Set for Solar Activity Related Research”. Solar activities are the major sources of space weather that affects human lives. Some of the serious space weather consequences, for instance, include interruption of space communication and navigation, compromising the safety of astronauts and satellites, and damaging power grids. Therefore, the solar activity research has both scientific and social impacts. The major database is built up from digitized and standardized film data obtained by several observatories around the world and covers a timespan more than 100 years. After careful calibration, we will develop feature extraction and data mining tools and provide them together with the comprehensive database for the astronomical community. Our final goal is to address several physical issues: filament behavior in solar cycles, abnormal behavior of solar cycle 24, large-scale solar eruptions, and sympathetic remote brightenings. Significant progresses are expected in data mining algorithms and software development, which will benefit the scientific analysis and eventually advance our understanding of solar cycles.

scholarly journals A Neural Network-Based TEC Model Capable of Reproducing Nighttime Winter Anomaly

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 4559
Author(s):  
Marjolijn Adolfs ◽  
Mohammed Mainul Hoque
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Geomagnetic Latitude ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Winter Anomaly

With the availability of fast computing machines, as well as the advancement of machine learning techniques and Big Data algorithms, the development of a more sophisticated total electron content (TEC) model featuring the Nighttime Winter Anomaly (NWA) and other effects is possible and is presented here. The NWA is visible in the Northern Hemisphere for the American sector and in the Southern Hemisphere for the Asian longitude sector under solar minimum conditions. During the NWA, the mean ionization level is found to be higher in the winter nights compared to the summer nights. The approach proposed here is a fully connected neural network (NN) model trained with Global Ionosphere Maps (GIMs) data from the last two solar cycles. The day of year, universal time, geographic longitude, geomagnetic latitude, solar zenith angle, and solar activity proxy, F10.7, were used as the input parameters for the model. The model was tested with independent TEC datasets from the years 2015 and 2020, representing high solar activity (HSA) and low solar activity (LSA) conditions. Our investigation shows that the root mean squared (RMS) deviations are in the order of 6 and 2.5 TEC units during HSA and LSA period, respectively. Additionally, NN model results were compared with another model, the Neustrelitz TEC Model (NTCM). We found that the neural network model outperformed the NTCM by approximately 1 TEC unit. More importantly, the NN model can reproduce the evolution of the NWA effect during low solar activity, whereas the NTCM model cannot reproduce such effect in the TEC variation.

ESTABLISHING SOLAR ACTIVITY TREND FOR SOLAR CYCLES 21 – 24

2021 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 100-106
Author(s):  
A.K. Singh ◽  
◽  
A. Bhargawa ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Sunspot Number ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Occurrence Rate ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Lyman Alpha ◽  
Rate Versus ◽  
Alpha Index

Solar-terrestrial environment is manifested primarily by the physical conditions of solar interior, solar atmosphere and eruptive solar plasma. Each parameter gives unique information about the Sun and its activity according to its defined characteristics. Hence the variability of solar parameters is of interest from the point of view of plasma dynamics on the Sun and in the interplanetary space as well as for the solar-terrestrial physics. In this study, we have analysed various solar transients and parameters to establish the recent trends of solar activity during solar cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24. The correlation coefficients of linear regression of F10.7 cm index, Lyman alpha index, Mg II index, cosmic ray intensity, number of M & X class flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occurrence rate versus sunspot number was examined for last four solar cycles. A running cross-correlation method has been used to study the momentary relationship among the above mentioned solar activity parameters. Solar cycle 21 witnessed the highest value of correlation for F10.7 cm index, Lyman alpha index and number of M-class and X-class flares versus sunspot number among all the considered solar cycles which were 0.979, 0.935 and 0.964 respectively. Solar cycle 22 recorded the highest correlation in case of Mg II index, Ap index and CMEs occurrence rate versus sunspot number among all the considered solar cycles (0.964, 0.384 and 0.972 respectively). Solar cycle 23 and 24 did not witness any highest correlation compared to solar cycle 21 and 22. Further the record values (highest value compared to other solar three cycles) of each solar activity parameters for each of the four solar cycles have been studied. Here solar cycle 24 has no record text at all, this simply indicating that this cycle was a weakest cycle compared to the three previous ones. We have concluded that in every domain solar 24 was weaker to its three predecessors.

scholarly journals Prediction of solar activity on the basis of spectral characteristics of sunspot number

2004 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 2239-2243 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Echer ◽  
N. R. Rigozo ◽  
D. J. R. Nordemann ◽  
L. E. A. Vieira
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Sunspot Number ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Spectral Characteristics ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Sine Series ◽  
Maximum Peak ◽  
Spectral Components ◽  
Sunspot Series

Abstract. Prediction of solar activity strength for solar cycles 23 and 24 is performed on the basis of extrapolation of sunspot number spectral components. Sunspot number data during 1933-1996 periods (solar cycles 17-22) are searched for periodicities by iterative regression. The periods significant at the 95% confidence level were used in a sum of sine series to reconstruct sunspot series, to predict the strength of solar cycles 23 and 24. The maximum peak of solar cycles is adequately predicted (cycle 21: 158±13.2 against an observed peak of 155.4; cycle 22: 178

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