Climate change impact on seaweed meadow distribution in the North Atlantic rocky intertidal

Abstract Surface wind (U10) and significant wave height (Hs) response to global warming are investigated using a coupled atmosphere–wave model by perturbing the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) with anomalies generated by the Working Group on Coupled Modeling (WGCM) phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) coupled models that use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B (SRES A1B) scenario late in the twenty-first century. Several consistent changes were observed across all four realizations for the seasonal means: robust increase of U10 and Hs in the Southern Ocean for both the austral summer and winter due to the poleward shift of the jet stream; a dipole pattern of the U10 and Hs with increases in the northeast sector and decreases at the midlatitude during boreal winter in the North Atlantic due to the more frequent occurrence of the positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); and strong decrease of U10 and Hs in the tropical western Pacific Ocean during austral summer, which might be caused by the joint effect of the weakening of the Walker circulation and the large hurricane frequency decrease in the South Pacific. Changes of the 99th percentile U10 and Hs are twice as strong as changes in the seasonal means, and the maximum changes are mainly dominated by the changes in hurricanes. Robust strong decreases of U10 and Hs in the South Pacific are obtained because of the large hurricane frequency decrease, while the results in the Northern Hemisphere basins differ among the models. An additional sensitivity experiment suggests that the qualitative response of U10 and Hs is not affected by using SST anomalies only and maintaining the radiative forcing unchanged (using 1980 values), as in this study.

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Interactive effects of climate change with nutrients, mercury, and freshwater acidification on key taxa in the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative region

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management ◽

10.1002/ieam.1612 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 355-369 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Alfred E Pinkney ◽

Charles T Driscoll ◽

David C Evers ◽

Michael J Hooper ◽

Jeffrey Horan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Interactive Effects ◽

Landscape Conservation ◽

The North ◽

Freshwater Acidification ◽

The North Atlantic

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The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector

Climate Dynamics ◽

10.1007/s00382-018-4151-1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 52 (1-2) ◽

pp. 417-438 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Ralf Hand ◽

Noel S. Keenlyside ◽

Nour-Eddine Omrani ◽

Jürgen Bader ◽

Richard J. Greatbatch

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

Sea Surface Temperature ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Temperature Pattern ◽

Atlantic Sector ◽

The North ◽

The North Atlantic

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Predictability of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation and Associated Surface Patterns in Two CCSM3 Climate Change Ensemble Experiments

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2011jcli4207.1 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 24 (23) ◽

pp. 6054-6076 ◽

Cited By ~ 27

Author(s):

Haiyan Teng ◽

Grant Branstator ◽

Gerald A. Meehl

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽

Subpolar Gyre ◽

Overturning Circulation ◽

The North ◽

Surface Patterns ◽

The Mean ◽

The North Atlantic ◽

Sst Anomalies

Abstract Predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and associated oceanic and atmospheric fields on decadal time scales in the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) at T42 resolution is quantified with a 700-yr control run and two 40-member “perfect model” climate change experiments. After taking into account both the mean and spread about the mean of the forecast distributions and allowing for the possibility of time-evolving modes, the natural variability of the AMOC is found to be predictable for about a decade; beyond that range the forced predictability resulting from greenhouse gas forcing becomes dominant. The upper 500-m temperature in the North Atlantic is even more predictable than the AMOC by several years. This predictability is associated with subsurface and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that propagate in an anticlockwise direction along the subpolar gyre and tend to be prominent during the 10 yr following peaks in the amplitude of AMOC anomalies. Predictability in the North Atlantic SST mainly resides in the ensemble mean signals after three to four forecast years. Analysis suggests that in the CCSM3 the subpolar gyre SST anomalies associated with the AMOC variability can influence the atmosphere and produce surface climate predictability that goes beyond the ENSO time scale. However, the resulting initial-value predictability in the atmosphere is very weak.

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Are the Transient and Equilibrium Climate Change Patterns Similar in Response to Increased CO2?

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-19-0749.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 33 (18) ◽

pp. 8003-8023

Author(s):

Danqing Huang ◽

Aiguo Dai ◽

Jian Zhu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Climate Models ◽

Surface Air Temperature ◽

The Arctic ◽

The North ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Time Periods ◽

The North Atlantic ◽

Subtropical Oceans

AbstractAfter a CO2 increase, whether the early transient and final equilibrium climate change patterns are similar has major implications. Here, we analyze long-term simulations from multiple climate models under increased CO2, together with the extended simulations from CMIP5, to compare the transient and equilibrium climate change patterns under different forcing scenarios. Results show that the normalized warming patterns (per 1 K of global warming) are broadly similar among different forcing scenarios (including abrupt 2 × CO2, 4 × CO2, and 1% CO2 increase per year) and during different time periods, except for the first 50 years or so when warming is weaker over the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean but stronger over most continents. During the first 200 years, this consistency is stronger over land than over ocean, but is lower in midlatitudes than other regions. Normalized precipitation change patterns are also similar, albeit to a lesser degree, among different forcing scenarios and across different time periods, although noticeable differences exist during the first few hundred years with smaller increases over the tropical Pacific. Precipitation over many subtropical oceans and land areas decreases consistently under different forcing scenarios and over all time periods. In particular, the transient and near-equilibrium change patterns for both surface air temperature and precipitation are similar over most of the globe, except for the North Atlantic warming hole, which is mainly a transient feature. The Arctic amplification and land–ocean warming contrast are largest during the first 100–200 years after CO2 quadrupling but they still exist in the equilibrium response.

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Environmental response to the cold climate event 8200 years ago as recorded at Højby Sø, Denmark

Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland Bulletin ◽

10.34194/geusb.v15.5044 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 15 ◽

pp. 57-60 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Peter Rasmussen ◽

Mikkel Ulfeldt Hede ◽

Nanna Noe-Nygaard ◽

Annemarie L. Clarke ◽

Rolf D. Vinebrooke

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Ice Cores ◽

Cold Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Lake Ecosystem ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

The North ◽

The North Atlantic

The need for accurate predictions of future environmental change under conditions of global warming has led to a great interest in the most pronounced climate change known from the Holocene: an abrupt cooling event around 8200 years before present (present = A.D. 1950), also known as the ‘8.2 ka cooling event’ (ka = kilo-annum = 1000 years). This event has been recorded as a negative δ18O excursion in the central Greenland ice cores (lasting 160 years with the lowest temperature at 8150 B.P.; Johnsen et al. 1992; Dansgaard 1993; Alley et al. 1997; Thomas et al. 2007) and in a variety of other palaeoclimatic archives including lake sediments, ocean cores, speleothems, tree rings, and glacier oscillations from most of the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. Alley & Ágústsdóttir 2005; Rohling & Pälike 2005). In Greenland the maximum cooling was estimated to be 6 ± 2°C (Alley et al. 1997) while in southern Fennoscandia and the Baltic countries pollenbased quantitative temperature reconstructions indicate a maximum annual mean temperature decrease of around 1.5°C (e.g. Seppä et al. 2007). Today there is a general consensus that the primary cause of the cooling event was the final collapse of the Laurentide ice sheet near Hudson Bay and the associated sudden drainage of the proglacial Lake Agassiz into the North Atlantic Ocean around 8400 B.P. (Fig. 1; Barber et al. 1999; Kleiven et al. 2008). This freshwater outflow, estimated to amount to c. 164,000 km3 of water, reduced the strength of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and thereby the heat transported to the North Atlantic region, resulting in an atmospheric cooling (Barber et al. 1999; Clark et al. 2001; Teller et al. 2002). The climatic consequences of this meltwater flood are assumed to be a good geological analogue for future climate-change scenarios, as a freshening of the North Atlantic is projected by almost all global-warming models (e.g. Wood et al. 2003; IPCC 2007) and is also currently being registered in the region (Curry et al. 2003). In an ongoing project, the influence of the 8.2 ka cooling event on a Danish terrestrial and lake ecosystem is being investigated using a variety of biological and geochemical proxy data from a sediment core extracted from Højby Sø, north-west Sjælland (Fig. 2). Here we present data on changes in lake hydrology and terrestrial vegetation in response to climate change, inferred from macrofossil data and pollen analysis, respectively.

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EVIDENCE OF ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE AT 9.3 KA AND 8.2 KA IN THE CENTRAL CANADIAN ARCTIC: CONNECTION TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND ATLANTIC MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION

10.1130/abs/2017am-297240 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

David Porinchu ◽

◽

Glen M. MacDonald ◽

Nicolas Rolland ◽

Kostantin Kremenetski ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Canadian Arctic ◽

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽

Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽

Abrupt Climate Change ◽

Overturning Circulation ◽

The North ◽

Meridional Overturning ◽

The North Atlantic

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A Review of Ocean Dynamics in the North Atlantic: Achievements and Challenges

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli8040049 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 49

Author(s):

Knut Lehre Seip

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Temperature Change ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Ocean Dynamics ◽

Local Climate ◽

The North ◽

Local Climate Change ◽

Global Temperature Change ◽

The North Atlantic ◽

Over Time

I address 12 issues related to the study of ocean dynamics and its impact on global temperature change, regional and local climate change, and on the North Atlantic ecosystem. I outline the present achievements and challenges that lie ahead. I start with observations and methods to extend the observations of ocean oscillations over time and end with challenges to find connections between ocean dynamics in the North Atlantic and dynamics in other parts of the globe.

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