Shadow economy threshold effect in the relationship finance–growth in Tunisia: A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khalil Mhadhbi ◽  
Chokri Terzi
Keyword(s):  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Threshold Effect ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

Asymmetric relationship between tourist arrivals and employment

2020 ◽  
pp. 135481662091000
Author(s):  
Jitendra Sharma ◽  
Subrata Kumar Mitra
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Relative Stability ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Desirable Outcome ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive ◽  
Reference Country

This article explores the relationship between the arrival of tourists and its impact on tourism-related employment. Considering the impact of tourist arrival on employment being asymmetric, we have analyzed the relationship using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag method proposed by Shin et al. The article analyzed how arrivals impact on employment taking Sri Lanka as a reference country and have used annual data of the variables obtained from the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority. It is found that for an increase in the tourist arrival by 1000, the tourism-related job employment rises by 83.8. On the contrary, with the decline in tourist arrival by the same number, the corresponding reduction in job employment is 29.8. The relatively lower reduction in employment with the fall of tourist arrival provides relative stability of employment to the tourism workforce and is a socially desirable outcome.

scholarly journals Are Cryptocurrencies a Backstop for the Stock Market in a COVID-19-Led Financial Crisis? Evidence from the NARDL Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Ahmed Jeribi ◽  
Sangram Keshari Jena ◽  
Amine Lahiani
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

The study investigates the safe haven properties and sustainability of the top five cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dash, Monero, and Ripple) and gold for BRICS stock markets during the COVID-19 crisis period from 31 January 2020 to 17 September 2020 in comparison to the precrisis period from 1 January 2016 to 30 January 2020, in a nonlinear and asymmetric framework using Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) methodology. Our results show that the relationship dynamics of stock market and cryptocurrency returns both in the short and long run are changing during the COVID-19 crisis period, which justifies our study using the nonlinear and asymmetric model. As far as a sustainable safe haven is concerned, Dash and Ripple are found to be a safe haven for all the five markets before the pandemic. However, all five cryptocurrencies are found to be a safe haven for three emerging markets, such as Brazil, China, and Russia, during the financial crisis. In a comparative framework, gold is found to be a suitable safe haven only for Brazil and Russia. The results have implications for index fund managers of BRICS markets to include Dash and Ripple in their portfolio as safe haven assets to protect its value during a stock market crisis.

Asymmetric and nonlinear dynamics in trade flows sustainability: Serbia and Romania

2021 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 161-180
Author(s):  
Mile Bošnjak
Keyword(s):  
Trade Flows ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Development Pattern ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nonlinear Form ◽  
Sustainable Equilibrium ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

AbstractThe research examines the sustainability of trade flows for two European post-communist economies: Serbia and Romania. We analysed two nonlinear forms of the relationship between exports and imports that cannot be explained by frequently applied linear model specifications. Newly developed nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach revealed the asymmetric and nonlinear long-run equilibrium between Serbian exports and imports. Nonlinearity tests indicated and the SETAR model specification confirmed threshold nonlinearity form in the Serbian trade flows pattern. Serbian trade flows still approach its sustainable equilibrium but the development pattern is promising. The results for Romania revealed another nonlinear form of the relationship between exports and imports, indicating a dependent cointegration. The paper provides robust results and supports the hypothesis that the relationship between exports and imports can be nonlinear and symmetric.

Is the Relationship Between Government Spending and Private Consumption in Egypt Symmetric?

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 285-308
Author(s):  
Imadeddin Ahmed Almosabbeh
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Cointegration Relationship ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

The aim of this study, using Egyptian data from 1970 to 2016, is to explore the relationship between government spending and private consumption spending and to understand whether the relationship between the two is symmetric. The study uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to explore a cointegration relationship between the two variables, and the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach to test the hypothesis of a symmetric relationship between the two variables. By applying the ARDL approach, the study concludes that the effect of government spending on consumption spending is not significant in the long term. By applying the NARDL approach, the study concludes that: the hypothesis of the presence of a symmetric relationship is not accepted, there is a crowding-out relationship from the positive shocks of government spending and the substitutability coefficient between the two types of spending is 0.8699. JEL Classification: E12, E21, F62, H50

Impact of Environmental Tax on Comparative Advantage of Food and Food Products: A Study of G20 Countries in Light of Environmentally Sensitive Goods

2021 ◽  
pp. 001946622110352
Author(s):  
Alisha Mahajan ◽  
Kakali Majumdar
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Food Products ◽  
Environmental Taxes ◽  
Environmental Tax ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Environmentally Sensitive ◽  
The Relationship

Many countries are under constant fear that environmental policies might negatively influence the international competitiveness of polluting industries. In this study, we aim to evaluate the relationship and impact of the environmental tax on comparative advantage of trade in food and food products industry, considered to be one of the highly environmentally sensitive industries. This study also investigates, whether this relationship differs among countries covered in G20, with the help of correlation analysis. We select panel autoregressive distributed lag approach for this study as it can analyse long-run as well as short-run association even when the variables are stationary at different orders of integration. Using panel data from G20 countries over the period of 21 years that is from 1994 to 2015, it is concluded that when we allow environmental taxes to interact with the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of G20 nations, the overall impact of the environmental tax on the RCA is negative in the long period. It is therefore suggested that countries should follow Porter hypothesis to stimulate innovations resulting from strict environmental regulations that affect the environment in least possible manner. JEL Codes: C01, C23, C33, F18, O57, Q5

scholarly journals The link between urbanization and air pollution in Turkey: Evidence from dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alper Aslan ◽  
BUKET ALTINOZ ◽  
BAKİ OZSOLAK
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Similar Relationship ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This study investigates the relationship between urbanization and air pollution in Turkey. Dynamic ARDL method was used for the period 1960–2014. According to the findings, there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between long-term urbanization and Co2. If urbanization increased by 1%, carbon emissions increased by 0.02%. There is a similar relationship between the shocks that will occur in population growth and Co2 emission in the long term. However, there is a negative and statistically insignificant relationship between the two variables. In the relationship between GDP and Co2, there is a positive relationship in the long term. GDP increase of 1% increases Co2 emissions by 0.11%. There is a similar relationship between long-term GDP shocks and Co2 emissions. According to short-term analysis results, energy consumption increases Co2 emissions by the same rate as GDP. However, the astonishing result of the study emerges here. Empirical results show that a long-term positive shock in energy consumption reduces CO2 emissions and a negative shock increases pollution. According to these results, Turkey has not reached the point of sustainable growth. For this reason, this developing country needs to make regulatory implementations and determine future policies for these impacts affecting air pollution.

Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending in Brazil: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 097674791989890
Author(s):  
Sudeshna Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Consumer Expenditure ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

The study explores the relationship between consumer confidence, household private consumer expenditure and other related macroeconomic financial variables for Brazil, a major, upper middle, income, Latin American country. It is widely discussed in the literature that the consumer confidence is an initial guide to the future behaviour of the economy based on the consumption path. Thus, a rise in the confidence of the consumer would lead to rising household consumption behaviour, which would percolate to accelerate economic growth. The study uses the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) to measure the effects of changes in consumer sentiment on private consumer spending, taking into consideration the significance of other financial variables, namely the rate of interest, stock market index, the exchange rate, inflation and unemployment trends. The study employs monthly data from the 4th month of 1995 to the 10th month of 2018. The bounds test of the NARDL suggests the presence of a cointegrating relationship among the variables. The model estimation affirms the presence of asymmetries in the behaviour of the major explanatory variables. In the short run, there are both positive and negative asymmetric impacts of consumer confidence index (CCI) on consumer expenditure, while the rate of interest has only negative asymmetries. In the long run, unemployment changes, stock market fluctuations, interest rate variation and alterations in the CCI shape the behaviour of consumer spending at the household level in Brazil. So, the consumers are able to perceive the signalling of the future behaviour of the market and contribute through consumption spending. JEL: C22; D12; E21; O54

scholarly journals The relationship between renewable energy and sustainable development in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 922 (1) ◽  
pp. 012034
Author(s):  
G Syamni ◽  
Wardhiah ◽  
Zulkifli ◽  
M J A Siregar ◽  
Y A Sitepu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract This paper is conducted to examine the relationship between the use of renewable energy and FDI in Indonesia. The data used in this study is secondary data that has been published by the World Bank and accessed in www.Data.worldbank.org. periode 2004-2019. The data analysis method used is the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method. The results of the study found that the use of renewable energy in the short and long term has a positive effect on Indonesia’s economic growth. Meanwhile, the same thing is also shown from the FDI variable in the short term and long term which has a significant positive effect on economic growth and has a positive effect on economic growth. Finally, with this finding, it is concluded that both the short and long term the Indonesian government needs to make a breakthrough to explore renewable energy sources for economic growth.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document