Projections of climate change in the Mediterranean Basin by using downscaled global climate model outputs

2015 ◽  
Vol 35 (14) ◽  
pp. 4276-4292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tugba Ozturk ◽  
Zeynep Pelin Ceber ◽  
Murat Türkeş ◽  
M. Levent Kurnaz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin

scholarly journals Mediterranean Olive Orchards under Climate Change: A Review of Future Impacts and Adaptation Strategies

Agronomy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 56
Author(s):  
Helder Fraga ◽  
Marco Moriondo ◽  
Luisa Leolini ◽  
João A. Santos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Olive Tree ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The olive tree (Olea europaea L.) is an ancient traditional crop in the Mediterranean Basin. In the Mediterranean region, traditional olive orchards are distinguishable by their prevailing climatic conditions. Olive trees are indeed considered one of the most suitable and best-adapted species to the Mediterranean-type climate. However, new challenges are predicted to arise from climate change, threatening this traditional crop. The Mediterranean Basin is considered a climate change “hotspot,” as future projections hint at considerable warming and drying trends. Changes in olive tree suitability have already been reported over the last few decades. In this context, climate change may become particularly challenging for olive growers. The growing evidence for significant climate change in the upcoming decades urges adaptation measures to be taken. To effectively cope with the projected changes, both short and long-term adaptation strategies must be timely planned by the sector stakeholders and decision-makers to adapt for a warmer and dryer future. The current manuscript is devoted to illustrating the main impacts of climate change on olive tree cultivation in the Mediterranean Basin, by reviewing the most recent studies on this subject. Additionally, an analysis of possible adaptation strategies against the potentially negative impacts of climate change was also performed.

scholarly journals Dust emission size distribution impact on aerosol budget and radiative forcing over the Mediterranean region: a regional climate model approach

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 10545-10567 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Nabat ◽  
F. Solmon ◽  
M. Mallet ◽  
J. F. Kok ◽  
S. Somot
Keyword(s):  
Size Distribution ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Dust Emission ◽  
Dust Deposition ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Dust Distribution ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin

Abstract. The present study investigates the dust emission and load over the Mediterranean basin using the coupled chemistry–aerosol–regional climate model RegCM-4. The first step of this work focuses on dust particle emission size distribution modeling. We compare a parameterization in which the emission is based on the individual kinetic energy of the aggregates striking the surface to a recent parameterization based on an analogy with the fragmentation of brittle materials. The main difference between the two dust schemes concerns the mass proportion of fine aerosol that is reduced in the case of the new dust parameterization, with consequences for optical properties. At the episodic scale, comparisons between RegCM-4 simulations, satellite and ground-based data show a clear improvement using the new dust distribution in terms of aerosol optical depth (AOD) values and geographic gradients. These results are confirmed at the seasonal scale for the investigated year 2008. This change of dust distribution has sensitive impacts on the simulated regional dust budget, notably dry dust deposition and the regional direct aerosol radiative forcing over the Mediterranean basin. In particular, we find that the new size distribution produces a higher dust deposition flux, and smaller top of atmosphere (TOA) dust radiative cooling. A multi-annual simulation is finally carried out using the new dust distribution over the period 2000–2009. The average SW radiative forcing over the Mediterranean Sea reaches −13.6 W m−2 at the surface, and −5.5 W m−2 at TOA. The LW radiative forcing is positive over the basin: 1.7 W m−2 on average over the Mediterranean Sea at the surface, and 0.6 W m−2 at TOA.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model

2016 ◽  
Vol 155 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. SILVA ◽  
L. KUMAR ◽  
F. SHABANI ◽  
M. C. PICANÇO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Open Field ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYTomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.

scholarly journals Selecting Potential Moss Species for Green Roofs in the Mediterranean Basin

Urban Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Cruz de Carvalho ◽  
Zulema Varela ◽  
Teresa Afonso do Paço ◽  
Cristina Branquinho
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Vascular Plants ◽  
Green Roof ◽  
Green Roofs ◽  
Potential Candidate ◽  
Moss Species ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Selection Of

Green roofs are important infrastructures to address the effects of climate change in urban areas. However, most studies and applications have been done in cooler and wetter regions of the northern hemisphere. Climate change will lead to more extreme weather events, such as increased drought and decreased precipitation with intense flash rain events. Increase desertification is expected especially in the Mediterranean Basin, where in summer, radiation and temperature are high and water is scarce. Therefore, while vascular plants increase water consumption in green roofs during warmer periods, mosses present themselves as potential candidates due to their poikilohydric nature, responding to the environmental availability of water, completely drying out and recovering upon rehydration. Although criteria for the selection of vascular plants adapted to the Mediterranean and suitable for green roofs have been developed, no information is available regarding the selection of mosses based on scientific criteria. Here we propose selection criteria for moss species based on ecological preferences according to Ellenberg’s values and help to define moss traits suitable for a nonirrigated, nature-based green roof that tolerates the Mediterranean climate. The main result is a table of potential candidate mosses that can be either used as standalone or in conjunction with vascular plants to decrease water usage and/or manage stormwater through an easily applicable selection methodology. For green roof practitioners, we proposed that acrocarpous mosses exhibiting turf/cushion life forms and colonist or perennial life strategies best fit the requirements for such a green infrastructure in extreme climate regions with scarce water resources.

scholarly journals Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change over the US and the implication on regional and urban air quality

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 1429-1445 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Trail ◽  
A. P. Tsimpidi ◽  
P. Liu ◽  
K. Tsigaridis ◽  
Y. Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Southeastern Us ◽  
The Us ◽  
Ozone Levels

Abstract. Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the contiguous United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF regional climate model (RCM) to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major US cities. The high-resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse-resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (western US, Texas, northeastern, and southeastern US), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). Changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels are increased temperatures and stagnation along with decreased precipitation and ventilation. We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the US, which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

scholarly journals Proposed Research for Innovative Solutions for Chickpeas and Beans in a Climate Change Scenario: The Mediterranean Basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1315
Author(s):  
Federico Martinelli ◽  
Francisco Javier Ollero ◽  
Antonio Giovino ◽  
Anna Perrone ◽  
Abdelkader Bekki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Molecular Networks ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Environmental Constraint ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Near Future ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin

In order to gain insight into the complex molecular networks driving legume adaptation caused by climate change, it is necessary to deeply characterize the existing germplasm in response to the environmental constraint predicted to worsen in the near future: drought. In this study, we propose to perform a three-year deep agronomic characterization of local genotypes of selected legumes in abiotic stressing conditions through controlled and field experiments conducted in several countries of the Mediterranean basin (Italy, Spain, Algeria, Tunisia, Turkey, Lebanon, and Croatia). These phenotypic analyses will be integrated with a multi-omic approach aiming at identifying the key players involved in the modulation of the analyzed traits that includes the analysis of the plant methylome, transcriptome, and proteome. Following this approach, we propose to deliver epigenomic markers linked with rapid adaptation mechanisms in response to drought. Besides, new genetic variability by breeding could be created in stressing conditions and produce the basis for the obtainment of more productive cultivars in worsening environments. The epigenetic marks identified in “omic” activities will be validated in molecular marker-assisted selection in F2–F4 populations. Finally, specific rhizobia strains for the best evaluated genotypes will be identified in order to enhance symbiotic nitrogen fixation in drought stress conditions with selected cultivars.

scholarly journals Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany"

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. 1617-1622 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fred Fokko Hattermann ◽  
Shaochun Huang ◽  
Olaf Burghoff ◽  
Peter Hoffmann ◽  
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Considerable Increase ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Impact Modelling ◽  
Flood Damages

Abstract. In our first study on possible flood damages under climate change in Germany, we reported that a considerable increase in flood-related losses can be expected in a future warmer climate. However, the general significance of the study was limited by the fact that outcome of only one global climate model (GCM) was used as a large-scale climate driver, while many studies report that GCMs are often the largest source of uncertainty in impact modelling. Here we show that a much broader set of global and regional climate model combinations as climate drivers show trends which are in line with the original results and even give a stronger increase of damages.

scholarly journals Quantification of the Expected Changes in Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation Quantiles under Climate Change in the Iberian Peninsula

Proceedings ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Garijo ◽  
Luis Mediero
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
The Future

Climate model projections can be used to assess the expected behaviour of extreme precipitations in the future due to climate change. The European part of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscalling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) provides precipitation projections for the future under various representative concentration pathways (RCPs) through regionalised Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs by a set of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). In this work, 12 combinations of GCM and RCM under two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) supplied by the EURO-CORDEX are analysed for the Iberian Peninsula. Precipitation quantiles for a set of probabilities of non-exceedance are estimated by using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and L-moments. Precipitation quantiles expected in the future are compared with the precipitation quantiles in the control period for each climate model. An approach based on Monte Carlo simulations is developed in order to assess the uncertainty from the climate model projections. Expected changes in the future are compared with the sampling uncertainty in the control period. Thus, statistically significant changes are identified. The higher the significance threshold, the fewer cells with significant changes are identified. Consequently, a set of maps are obtained in order to assist the decision-making process in subsequent climate change studies.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document