What Is the Worst Scenario? Modeling Extreme Cyber Losses

The article presents the application of scenario modeling methods to assess the potential for scaling electoral support for political parties through digital communications (communities in social networks) based on data obtained from social networks. An analysis of communities in several social networks was carried out, various indicators were downloaded, reflecting the activity of both communities and users of such communities. Based on these data, various aggregates were calculated. Then a software package was developed that implements scenario modeling based on various identified indicators. The scenarios provide for the development of groups in social networks, depending on the activity of these groups. In this case, the activity is given by a random variable with a normal distribution. To test the developed algorithms, indicators of political communities in social networks were used.

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Delay Tolerant Network assisted flying Ad-Hoc network scenario: modeling and analytical perspective

Wireless Networks ◽

10.1007/s11276-019-01987-8 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 25 (5) ◽

pp. 2675-2695 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Amartya Mukherjee ◽

Nilanjan Dey ◽

Rajesh Kumar ◽

B. K. Panigrahi ◽

Aboul Ella Hassanien ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ad Hoc Network ◽

Ad Hoc ◽

Delay Tolerant Network ◽

Scenario Modeling ◽

Analytical Perspective ◽

Delay Tolerant

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Chapter 24 Land Use and Scenario Modeling for Integrated Sustainability Assessment

European Landscape Dynamics ◽

10.1201/9781315372860-25 ◽

2016 ◽

pp. 237-262 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Carlo Lavalle ◽

Filipe Batista e Silva ◽

Claudia Baranzelli ◽

Chris Jacobs-Crisioni ◽

Ine Vandecasteele ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Sustainability Assessment ◽

Scenario Modeling ◽

Integrated Sustainability

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METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO CREATING A MODEL OF COST-EFFECTIVE MECHANISM FOR MANAGING INNOVATIVE ACTIVITY OF HOTEL ORGANIZATIONS

Economics Profession Business ◽

10.14258/epb202124 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 68-76

Author(s):

T. P. Levchenko ◽

M. B. Moldazhanov ◽

V. V. Purichi ◽

I. V. Strishkina

Keyword(s):

Innovation Management ◽

Methodological Approach ◽

Cost Effective ◽

Innovative Activity ◽

Effective Management ◽

Management Mechanism ◽

Effective Mechanism ◽

Scenario Modeling ◽

Proposed Model ◽

Activity Management

The transition of hotel organizations to a qualitatively new level of development can be ensured by the formation and use of a cost-effective innovation management mechanism. The article attempts to create a model of a cost-effective management mechanism that could take into account the multifaceted relationships of indicators and indicators of innovative activity. The operation of this mechanism implies the use of indicative control tools, as well as factor and scenario modeling. The author considers the mechanism from the perspective of implementing five interconnected blocks: subjects, goals and tasks, objects, processes and resulting effects. The content of the resulting effects of the implementation of innovative processes based on the calculation of integral indicators of innovative activity and its elements. Based on the proposed model of a cost-effective mechanism for managing the innovative activity of hotel organizations, an analysis of trends in the level of innovative activity was carried out at using the example of three hotel in Sochi, their graphical interpretation is presented. As part of the presented model, scenario modeling of innovative activity management was carried out as one of its tools, a graph of the ratio of indicators of innovative activity of hotel organizations in Sochi was built.

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SCENARIO MODELING OF THE CONSTRUCTION SERVICES MARKET IN PERM REGION

Вестник Алтайской академии экономики и права ◽

10.17513/vaael.953 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (№12 2019) ◽

pp. 33-38

Author(s):

A.I. Vinokurov

Keyword(s):

Scenario Modeling ◽

Construction Services ◽

Perm Region

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Scenario Modeling in Health System Management Perm Region (Part 2)

Administrative Consulting ◽

10.22394/1726-1139-2021-3-98-109 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 98-109

Author(s):

A. N. Tsatsulin ◽

B. A. Tsatsulin

Keyword(s):

Least Squares Method ◽

Economic Indicator ◽

Simultaneous Equations ◽

Likelihood Method ◽

Reduced Form ◽

System Management ◽

National Goal ◽

Scenario Modeling ◽

Management And Development ◽

Independent Variable

In continuation of the article, the authors of the study devoted to the problems of scenario modeling and solving specific problems of management and development of the health care system of the Perm Territory, built the author’s dynamic multivariate model, which was based on an authoritative approach and consists of a set of five structural simultaneous equations. As a result, each equation of the system is a linear form of recursive regression, where the independent variable as a factor-factor taken into account in one equation becomes a depend- ent variable as an effective factor-factor. In order to eliminate the phenomenon of autocor- relation of residual values, the method of time lagging was used. To estimate the parameters of the reduced form of structural simultaneous equations, the two-step least squares method was used as a special case of the maximum likelihood method. The obtained parameter esti- mates on the whole turned out to be effective with moderate consistency and satisfactory bias. The constructed model made it possible to carry out a short-term forecast of the most important target socio-economic indicator of the success of healthcare development in the region until 2023. The authors considered the national goal as such a priority indicator — the expected (future) life expectancy of the population of the study area. At the end of the article, conclusions were drawn and the prospects for further scientific research of the authors were outlined.

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Application of Computer Simulation to Ensure Comprehensive Security of Buildings

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.409-410.1620 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 409-410 ◽

pp. 1620-1623 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Andrey Volkov ◽

Pavel Chelyshkov ◽

Artem Sedov

Keyword(s):

Probability Theory ◽

Computer Simulation ◽

Engineering Systems ◽

Optimal Composition ◽

Scenario Modeling

This article concerned with the problem of defining optimal composition of engineering systems, providing comprehensive security buildings and complexes. The author proposed a way based on the application of probability theory, simulation and scenario modeling.

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