scholarly journals Digital Link—A

2021 ◽  
pp. 115-142
Author(s):  
Jean Walrand
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Problem ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Main Tool ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimates ◽  
Modulation Scheme ◽  
Bayes Rule ◽  
Binary Symmetric Channel ◽  
Symmetric Channel ◽  
Complex Modulation

AbstractIn a digital link, a transmitter converts bits into signals and a receiver converts the signals it receives into bits. The receiver faces a decision problem that we study in Sect. 7.1. The main tool is Bayes’ Rule. The key notions are maximum a posteriori and maximum likelihood estimates. Transmission systems use codes to reduce the number of bits they need to transmit. Section 7.2 explains the Huffman codes that minimize the expected number of bits needed to transmit symbols; the idea is to use fewer bits for more likely symbols. Section 7.3 explores a commonly used model of a communication channel: the binary symmetric channel. It explains how to calculate the probability of errors. Section 7.4 studies a more complex modulation scheme employed by most smartphones and computers: QAM. Section 7.5 is devoted to a central problem in decision making: how to infer which situation is in force from observations. Does a test reveal the presence of a disease; how to balance the probability of false positive and that of false negative? The main result of that section is the Neyman–Pearson Theorem that the section illustrates with many examples.

scholarly journals Ranking Environmental Aspects of Sustainable Tourism: Case of Selected European Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 5701
Author(s):  
Tihana Škrinjarić
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Sustainable Tourism ◽  
Multiple Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Main Tool ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Environmental Aspects ◽  
Grey Systems Theory ◽  
Insightful Analysis ◽  
Critical Overview

The tourism industry is one of the fastest-growing industries today, and it is important to obtain insights into its good and bad practices. This will provide policymakers with as much information as possible to tailor specific policies to facilitate tourism and economic growth. The main purpose of this paper is a critical overview of the related research on the topic of evaluating sustainable tourism in European countries and extensive empirical research on achieving sustainable tourism. This research includes Grey Systems Theory (GST) as the main tool in evaluating the efficiency of sustainable tourism. Robustness checking is done via the multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) approach. Although the literature on tourism efficiency is vast, there is a smaller amount of research related to the approach taken in this paper. Thus, a comprehensive and insightful analysis will be done so that relevant and timely information can be obtained for the future decision-making process. Furthermore, a dynamic analysis will be provided so that changes in time can be observed and a detailed analysis can be made.

scholarly journals Multicriteria Evaluation of Urban Regeneration Processes: An Application of PROMETHEE Method in Northern Italy

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Bottero ◽  
Chiara D’Alpaos ◽  
Alessandra Oppio
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Problem ◽  
Swot Analysis ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Urban Regeneration ◽  
Northern Italy ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Promethee Method ◽  
Regeneration Processes

The paper illustrates the development of an evaluation model for supporting the decision-making process related to an urban regeneration intervention. In particular, the study proposes an original multi-methodological approach, which combines SWOT Analysis, Stakeholders Analysis and PROMETHEE method for the evaluation of alternative renewal strategies of an urban area in Northern Italy. The article also describes the work carried out within an experts’ panel that has been organized for validating the structuring of the decision problem and for evaluating the criteria of the model.

scholarly journals MULTI CRITERIA DECISION MAKING – RANKING AND PROMOTING EMPLOYEES

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 1235-1241
Author(s):  
Marina Badarovska Mishevska
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Problem ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Specific Situation ◽  
Mathematical Tool ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
The Right ◽  
Term Performance ◽  
Hierarchy Process

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a structured technique for organizing and analyzing complex decisions, based on mathematics and psychology. The method was developed by Thomas L. Saaty in the 1970s and has been extensively studied and refined since then. It has particular application in group decision making and is used around the world in a wide variety of decision situation. Rather than prescribing a "correct" decision, the AHP helps decision makers choose one that best suits their goal and their understanding of the problem. The technique provides a comprehensive and rational framework for structuring a decision problem, for representing and quantifying its elements, for relating those elements to overall goals, and for evaluating alternative solutions. Decision making is the choice of one alternative, from two or more, to which the course of the activity is directed and the problem is solved. The decision-making process is a rational attempt by the manager to achieve the goals of the organizational unit. The decision-making process can be thought of as a "brain and nervous system" of an enterprise. Decisions are made when a person wants things to be different in the future. Given each specific situation, making the right decisions is probably one of the most difficult challenges for managers. Managers in day-to-day work deliver programmed and unprogrammed decisions that solve simple or complex problems. Simple decisions have an impact on the short-term performance of the enterprise, and complex decisions have an impact on the long-term future and success of the enterprise. Users of the AHP first decompose their decision problem into a hierarchy of more easily comprehended sub-problems, each of which can be analyzed independently. Once the hierarchy is built, the decision makers systematically evaluate its various elements by comparing them to each other two at a time, with respect to their impact on an element above them in the hierarchy. The AHP converts these evaluations to numerical values that can be processed and compared over the entire range of the problem. In this article, it is explained the application of the AHP method in order to evaluate and promote employees in the enterprise "X" with several criteria. The obtained results enable the manager to evaluate the employees in an objective way and make an objective decision for their promotion. Its application for selecting the best among employees, in their assessment and promotion, allows managers to use a specific and mathematical tool to support the decision. This tool not only supports and qualifies decisions, it also allows managers to justify their choice, as well as to simulate possible results.

scholarly journals Transmission of Hidden Cipher Text over a Binary Symmetric Channel

2012 ◽  
Vol 53 (15) ◽  
pp. 40-43
Author(s):  
Arun Rana ◽  
Nitin Sharma ◽  
Parveen Malik
Keyword(s):  
Binary Symmetric Channel ◽  
Cipher Text ◽  
Symmetric Channel

Zero-temperature error-correcting code for a binary symmetric channel

1995 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Dress ◽  
E Amic ◽  
J M Luck
Keyword(s):  
Error Correcting Code ◽  
Temperature Error ◽  
Zero Temperature ◽  
Binary Symmetric Channel ◽  
Symmetric Channel

Sensor-Based Decision Making in Uncertain Context

2017 ◽  
pp. 234-257
Author(s):  
Eric Villeneuve ◽  
François Pérès ◽  
Cedrik Beler ◽  
Vicente González-Prida
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Organizational Network ◽  
Decision Aiding ◽  
External Impact ◽  
Information Collecting ◽  
Embedded Intelligence

Decision makers, whether human or computer, using sensor networks to instrument information collecting necessary for decision, often face difficulties in assessing confidence granted to signals transmitted and received in the network. Several organizational (network architecture or nature, distance between sensors ...), internal (sensor reliability or accuracy ...) or external (impact of environment ...) factors can lead to measurement errors (false alarm, non-detection by misinterpretation of the analyzed signals, false-negative …). A system-embedded intelligence is then necessary, to compare the information received for the purpose of decision aiding based on margin of errors converted in confidence intervals. In this chapter, the authors present four complementary approaches to quantify the interpretation of signals exchanged in a network of sensors in the presence of uncertainty.

Frameworks and Models in Decision-Making and Judgment in Child Welfare and Protection

2020 ◽  
pp. 3-26
Author(s):  
Rami Benbenishty ◽  
John D. Fluke
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information Processing ◽  
Child Welfare ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Theoretical Perspectives ◽  
Specificity And Sensitivity ◽  
Predictive Risk

This chapter presents the basic concepts, theoretical perspectives, and areas of scholarship that bear on decisions in child welfare—making choices in decision environments characterized by high levels of uncertainty. The authors distinguish between normative models that predict what decision-makers ought to choose when faced with alternatives and descriptive models that describe how they tend to make these choices in real life. The chapter reviews those challenges that may be especially relevant in the complex context of child welfare and protection. One way in which decision-makers overcome task complexities and limitations in human information processing (bounded rationality) is by using heuristics to navigate complex tasks. The chapter reviews strategies to correct some limitations in judgment. The authors examine the relationships between workers’ predictions of what would be the outcomes of the case and the actual outcomes and describe two types of error (false positive and false negative) and the related concepts of specificity and sensitivity. These issues are followed by a description of the Lens Model and some of its implications for child welfare decision-making, including predictive risk modeling and studies on information processing models. The final section presents current theoretical models in child welfare decision-making and describes Decision-Making Ecology (DME) and Judgments and Decision Processes in Context (JUDPiC). The chapter concludes with suggestions for future research on child welfare decision-making that could contribute to our conceptual understanding and have practical utility as well.

Point of Care Ultrasound in Geriatric Patients: Prospective Evaluation of a Portable Handheld Ultrasound Device

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (03) ◽  
pp. 308-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eckhart Fröhlich ◽  
Katharina Beller ◽  
Reinhold Muller ◽  
Maria Herrmann ◽  
Ines Debove ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Geriatric Patients ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Point Of Care ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Clinical Decision ◽  
Point Of Care Ultrasound ◽  
Handheld Device ◽  
Ultrasound Device ◽  
Handheld Ultrasound

Abstract Purpose The aim of the current study was to evaluate point of care ultrasound (POCUS) in geriatric patients by echoscopy using a handheld ultrasound device (HHUSD, VScan) at bedside in comparison to a high-end ultrasound system (HEUS) as the gold standard. Materials and Methods Prospective observational study with a total of 112 geriatric patients. The ultrasound examinations were independently performed by two experienced blinded examiners with a portable handheld device and a high-end ultrasound device. The findings were compared with respect to diagnostic findings and therapeutic implications. Results The main indications for the ultrasound examinations were dyspnea (44.6 %), fall (frailty) (24.1 %) and fever (21.4 %). The most frequently found diagnoses were cystic lesions 32.1 % (35/109), hepatic vein congestion 19.3 % (21/109) and ascites 13.6 % (15/110). HHUSD delivered 13 false-negative findings in the abdomen resulting in an “overall sensitivity” of 89.5 %. The respective “overall specificity” was 99.6 % (7 false-positive diagnoses). HHUSD (versus HEUS data) resulted in 13.6 % (17.3 %) diagnostically relevant procedures in the abdomen and 0.9 % (0.9 %) in the thorax. Without HHUSD (HEUS) 95.7 % (100 %) of important pathological findings would have been missed. Conclusion The small HHUSD tool improves clinical decision-making in immobile geriatric patients at the point of care (geriatric ward). In most cases, HHUSD allows sufficiently accurate yes/no diagnoses already at the bedside, thereby clarifying the leading symptoms for early clinical decision-making.

scholarly journals Emergence of Coordination in Growing Decision-Making Organizations: The Role of Complexity, Search Strategy, and Cost of Effort

Complexity ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Friederike Wall
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Problem ◽  
Search Strategy ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Distributed Decision Making ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Nk Fitness Landscapes ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Different Levels

Coordination among decision-makers of an organization, each responsible for a certain partition of an overall decision-problem, is of crucial relevance with respect to the overall performance obtained. Among the challenges of coordination in distributed decision-making systems (DDMS) is to understand how environmental conditions like, for example, the complexity of the decision-problem to be solved, the problem’s predictability and its dynamics shape the adaptation of coordination mechanisms. These challenges apply to DDMS resided by human decision-makers like firms as well as to systems of artificial agents as studied in the domain of multiagent systems (MAS). It is well known that coordination for increasing decision-problems and, accordingly, growing organizations is in a particular tension between shaping the search for new solutions and setting appropriate constraints to deal with increasing size and intraorganizational complexity. Against this background, the paper studies the adaptation of coordination in the course of growing decision-making organizations. For this, an agent-based simulation model based on the framework of NK fitness landscapes is employed. The study controls for different levels of complexity of the overall decision-problem, different strategies of search for new solutions, and different levels of cost of effort to implement new solutions. The results suggest that, with respect to the emerging coordination mode, complexity subtly interferes with the search strategy employed and cost of effort. In particular, results support the conjecture that increasing complexity leads to more hierarchical coordination. However, the search strategy shapes the predominance of hierarchy in favor of granting more autonomy to decentralized decision-makers. Moreover, the study reveals that the cost of effort for implementing new solutions in conjunction with the search strategy may remarkably affect the emerging form of coordination. This could explain differences in prevailing coordination modes across different branches or technologies or could explain the emergence of contextually inferior modes of coordination.

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