Assessment of the Impact of Projected Climate Change on Streamflow and Groundwater Recharge in a River Basin

Author(s):  
Santosh G. Thampi ◽  
K. Y. Raneesh
Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1153
Author(s):  
Shih-Jung Wang ◽  
Cheng-Haw Lee ◽  
Chen-Feng Yeh ◽  
Yong Fern Choo ◽  
Hung-Wei Tseng

Climate change can directly or indirectly influence groundwater resources. The mechanisms of this influence are complex and not easily quantified. Understanding the effect of climate change on groundwater systems can help governments adopt suitable strategies for water resources. The baseflow concept can be used to relate climate conditions to groundwater systems for assessing the climate change impact on groundwater resources. This study applies the stable baseflow concept to the estimation of the groundwater recharge in ten groundwater regions in Taiwan, under historical and climate scenario conditions. The recharge rates at the main river gauge stations in the groundwater regions were assessed using historical data. Regression equations between rainfall and groundwater recharge quantities were developed for the ten groundwater regions. The assessment results can be used for recharge evaluation in Taiwan. The climate change estimation results show that climate change would increase groundwater recharge by 32.6% or decrease it by 28.9% on average under the climate scenarios, with respect to the baseline quantity in Taiwan. The impact of climate change on groundwater systems may be positive. This study proposes a method for assessing the impact of climate change on groundwater systems. The assessment results provide important information for strategy development in groundwater resources management.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1548
Author(s):  
Suresh Marahatta ◽  
Deepak Aryal ◽  
Laxmi Prasad Devkota ◽  
Utsav Bhattarai ◽  
Dibesh Shrestha

This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience.


2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 2018-2032 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Ashraf Vaghefi ◽  
S. J. Mousavi ◽  
K. C. Abbaspour ◽  
R. Srinivasan ◽  
H. Yang

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Wang ◽  
Fan Zhang ◽  
Guanxing Wang

<p>The impact of climate change on soil erosion is pronounced in high mountain area. In this study, the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) model was improved for better calculation of soil erosion during snowmelt period by integrating a distributed hydrological model in upper Heihe river basin (UHRB). The results showed that the annual average soil erosion rate from 1982 to 2015 in the study area was 8.1 t ha<sup>-1 </sup>yr<sup>-1</sup>, belonging to the light grade. To evaluate the influence of climate change on soil erosion, detrended analysis of precipitation, temperature and NDVI was conducted. It was found that in detrended analysis of precipitation and temperature, the soil erosion of UHRB would decrease 26.5% and 3.0%, respectively. While in detrended analysis of NDVI, soil erosion would increase 9.9%. Compared with precipitation, the effect of temperature on total soil erosion was not significant, but the detrended analysis of temperature showed that the effect of temperature on soil erosion during snowmelt period can reach 70%. These finding were helpful for better understanding of the impact of climate change on soil erosion and provide a scientific basis for soil management in high mountain area under climate change in the future.</p>


2018 ◽  
pp. 70-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Viet Thang ◽  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Ho Long Phi

In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P loads) in the upper Dong Nai River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a reasonable tool for simulating streamflow and water quality for this basin. Based on the well-calibrated SWAT model, the responses of streamflow, sediment load, and nutrient load to climate change were simulated. Climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were developed from five GCM simulations (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) using the delta change method. The results indicated that climate in the study area would become warmer and wetter in the future. Climate change leads to increases in streamflow, sediment load, T-N load, and T-P load. Besides that, the impacts of climate change would exacerbate serious problems related to water shortage in the dry season and soil erosion and degradation in the wet season. In addition, it is indicated that changes in sediment yield and nutrient load due to climate change are larger than the corresponding changes in streamflow.


Author(s):  
Gizachew Kabite ◽  
Misgana Muleta ◽  
Berhan Gessesse

Land cover and climate changes greatly influence hydrologic responses of a basin. However, the response vary from basin to basin depending on the nature and severity of the changes and basin characteristics. Moreover, the combined impacts of the changes affect hydrologic responses of a basin in an offsetting or synergistic manner. This study quantified the separate and combined impacts, and the relative contributions of land cover and climate changes on multiple hydrological regimes (i.e., surface runoff, streamflow, groundwater recharge evapotranspiration) for the Dhidhessa Subbasin. Land cover and climate change data were obtained from a recent study completed for the basin. Calibrated Soil and Water Analysis Tool (SWAT) was used to quantify the impacts. The result showed that SWAT model performed well for the Dhidhessa Subbasin in predicting the water balance components. Substantial land cover change as well as an increasing temperature and rainfall trends were reported in the river basin during the past three decades. In response to these changes, surface runoff, streamflow and actual evapotranspiration (AET) increased while groundwater recharge declined. Surface runoff was more sensitive to land cover than to climate changes whereas streamflow and AET were more sensitive to climate change than to land cover change. The combined impacts played offsetting effect on groundwater recharge and AET while inconsistent effects within study periods for other hydrologic responses. Overall, the predicted hydrologic responses will have negative impacts on agricultural production and water resources availability. Therefore, the implementation of integrated watershed management strategies such as soil and water conservation and afforestation could reverse the negative impacts.


2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umesh Kumar Singh ◽  
Balwant Kumar

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission is altering the global hydrological cycle due to change in rainfall pattern and rising temperature which is responsible for alteration in the physical characteristics of river basin, melting of ice, drought, flood, extreme weather events and alteration in groundwater recharge. In India, water demand for domestic, industrial and agriculture purposes have already increased many folds which are also influencing the water resource system. In addition, climate change has induced the surface temperature of the Indian subcontinent by 0.48 ºC in just last century. However, Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) river basins have great importance for their exceptional hydro-geological settings and deltaic floodplain wetland ecosystems which support 700 million people in Asia. The climatic variability like alterations in precipitation and temperature over GBM river basins has been observed which signifies the GBM as one of the most vulnerable areas in the world under the potential impact of climate change. Consequently, alteration in river discharge, higher runoff generation, low groundwater recharge and melting of glaciers over GBM river basin could be observed in near future. The consequence of these changes due to climate change over GBM basin may create serious water problem for Indian sub-continents. This paper reviews the literature on the historical climate variations and how climate change affects the hydrological characteristics of different river basins.


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