Diagnoses of the Future Horizon

2017 ◽  
pp. 11-30
Author(s):  
Julia Cook
Keyword(s):  
2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erland Mårald ◽  
Erik Westholm

This article explores the changing construction of the future in Swedish forestry since 1850. The framework is based on three concepts: (1) knowability, addressing changing views of knowledge; (2) governability, addressing changing views of the ability to steer the future; and (3) temporality, referring to varying ways of relating to time. The results reveal that until the 1980s, trust in science-based forestry triggered other knowledge-based activities, such as education, surveys, and field trials. The future was seen as predictable and forecasts were expected to support increased forest production. In the 1970s, the environmental debate about the forest incorporated a pluralistic futures agenda. High-production forestry using intensive management methods was questioned. Futures studies shifted focus from predictions to scenarios, highlighting a less predictable future open to human agency. Paradoxically, with increased knowledge of forest ecology and forest markets with improved modeling techniques, the future horizon shifted to one of risks and uncertainties.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Makoto Natsuume ◽  
Takashi Okamura

Abstract We investigate the “pole-skipping” phenomenon in holographic chaos. According to pole-skipping, the energy-density Green’s function is not unique at a special point in the complex momentum plane. This arises because the bulk field equation has two regular near-horizon solutions at the special point. We study the regularity of the two solutions more carefully using curvature invariants. In the upper-half $\omega$-plane, one solution, which is normally interpreted as the outgoing mode, is in general singular at the future horizon and produces a curvature singularity. However, at the special point, both solutions are indeed regular. Moreover, the incoming mode cannot be uniquely defined at the special point due to these solutions.


2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 700-717 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Cook

Sociological work has often characterized the contemporary future horizon as a space crowded with risks and contingencies. This view has prompted a number of claims that young adults conceptualize the future predominantly in terms of the choices and plans that they make to mitigate against such concerns. As an extension of this logic, a number of studies have suggested that young adults conceptualize the long-term future extending beyond their own lives separately from their more immediate horizon of planning (Leahy et al., 2010; Toffler, 1974 ). This paper discusses how young adults relate to the long-term and more immediate future concurrently, and in doing so considers the points at which the strategies that they use to cope with contingency in their own lives may intersect with the ways that they approach their fears, hopes and imaginings of the long-term future. The data for this paper are drawn from an interview project in which young adults (aged 18–34) were asked to discuss their own futures, and a general idea of the future. The findings are used to form the beginnings of a typology of the approaches that young adults may adopt when engaging with the future, which is then drawn upon to propose that the ways in which they engage with the long-term future are often related to the strategies that they employ when facing their own futures.


Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 928
Author(s):  
Shin’ichi Nojiri ◽  
Sergei D. Odintsov ◽  
Tanmoy Paul

In the formalism of generalized holographic dark energy (HDE), the holographic cut-off is generalized to depend upon LIR=LIRLp,L˙p,L¨p,⋯,Lf,L˙f,⋯,a with Lp and Lf being the particle horizon and the future horizon, respectively (moreover, a is the scale factor of the Universe). Based on such formalism, in the present paper, we show that a wide class of dark energy (DE) models can be regarded as different candidates for the generalized HDE family, with respective cut-offs. This can be thought as a symmetry between the generalized HDE and different DE models. In this regard, we considered several entropic dark energy models—such as the Tsallis entropic DE, the Rényi entropic DE, and the Sharma–Mittal entropic DE—and found that they are indeed equivalent with the generalized HDE. Such equivalence between the entropic DE and the generalized HDE is extended to the scenario where the respective exponents of the entropy functions are allowed to vary with the expansion of the Universe. Besides the entropic DE models, the correspondence with the generalized HDE was also established for the quintessence and for the Ricci DE model. In all the above cases, the effective equation of state (EoS) parameter corresponding to the holographic energy density was determined, by which the equivalence of various DE models with the respective generalized HDE models was further confirmed. The equivalent holographic cut-offs were determined by two ways: (1) in terms of the particle horizon and its derivatives, (2) in terms of the future horizon horizon and its derivatives.


1986 ◽  
Vol 108 (3) ◽  
pp. 276-277
Author(s):  
M. D. Espan˜a

An optimal multistep predictor based on the 1-step-ahead predictor is presented. It is shown that parallel predictors need not be implemented in order to predict the output of some stochastically disturbed system over a future horizon of sampling instants. When the parameters are not known the self-tuning property of the 1-step ahead predictor combined with a least-square recursive identification algorithm is inherited by the future predictions obtained on its bases. The structure complexity of the problem can thus be reduced to its minimal expression, i.e., the 1-step-ahead step-tuning predictor.


2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (07) ◽  
pp. 1073-1084
Author(s):  
NARESH DADHICH ◽  
OLEG B. ZASLAVSKII

We study the properties of the congruence of null geodesics propagating near the so-called truly naked horizons (TNHs) — objects having a finite Kretschmann scalar but with diverging tidal acceleration for freely falling observers. The expansion of outgoing rays near the future horizon always tends to vanish for the nonextremal case but may be nonzero for the distorted (ultra)extremal one. It tends to diverge for the ingoing rays if the the null energy condition (NEC) is satisfied in the vicinity of the horizon outside. However, it also tends to zero for NEC-violating cases except for the remote horizons. We also discuss the validity of test particle approximation for TNHs and find the sufficient condition for the backreaction to remain small.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document