Sunspots, GDP, and the Stock Market

A correlation has been observed between the US GDP and the number of sunspots as well as between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the number of sunspots. The data cover 80 years of history. The observed correlations permit forecasts for the GDP and for the stock market in America with a future horizon of 10 years. Both being above their long-term trend they are forecasted to go over a peak around Jun-2008.

Hot Spots and Climate Trends of Meteorological Droughts in Europe–Assessing the Percent of Normal Index in a Single-Model Initial-Condition Large Ensemble

Drought, caused by a prolonged deficit of precipitation, bears the risk of severe economic and ecological consequences for affected societies. The occurrence of this significant hydro-meteorological hazard is expected to strongly increase in many regions due to climate change, however, it is also subject to high internal climate variability. This calls for an assessment of climate trends and hot spots that considers the variations due to internal variability. In this study, the percent of normal index (PNI), an index that describes meteorological droughts by the deviation of a long-term reference mean, is analyzed in a single-model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) of the Canadian regional climate model version 5 (CRCM5) over Europe. A far future horizon under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 is compared to the present-day climate and a pre-industrial reference, which is derived from pi-control runs of the CRCM5 representing a counterfactual world without anthropogenic climate change. Our analysis of the SMILE reveals a high internal variability of drought occurrence over Europe. Considering the high internal variability, our results show a clear overall increase in the duration, number and intensity of droughts toward the far future horizon. We furthermore find a strong seasonal divergence with a distinct increase in summer droughts and a decrease in winter droughts in most regions. Additionally, the percentage of summer droughts followed by wet winters is increasing in all regions except for the Iberian Peninsula. Because of particularly severe drying trends, the Alps, the Mediterranean, France and the Iberian Peninsula are suggested to be considered as drought hot spots. Due to the simplicity and intuitivity of the PNI, our results derived from this index are particularly appropriate for region-specific communication purposes and outreach.

Different Faces of Generalized Holographic Dark Energy

In the formalism of generalized holographic dark energy (HDE), the holographic cut-off is generalized to depend upon LIR=LIRLp,L˙p,L¨p,⋯,Lf,L˙f,⋯,a with Lp and Lf being the particle horizon and the future horizon, respectively (moreover, a is the scale factor of the Universe). Based on such formalism, in the present paper, we show that a wide class of dark energy (DE) models can be regarded as different candidates for the generalized HDE family, with respective cut-offs. This can be thought as a symmetry between the generalized HDE and different DE models. In this regard, we considered several entropic dark energy models—such as the Tsallis entropic DE, the Rényi entropic DE, and the Sharma–Mittal entropic DE—and found that they are indeed equivalent with the generalized HDE. Such equivalence between the entropic DE and the generalized HDE is extended to the scenario where the respective exponents of the entropy functions are allowed to vary with the expansion of the Universe. Besides the entropic DE models, the correspondence with the generalized HDE was also established for the quintessence and for the Ricci DE model. In all the above cases, the effective equation of state (EoS) parameter corresponding to the holographic energy density was determined, by which the equivalence of various DE models with the respective generalized HDE models was further confirmed. The equivalent holographic cut-offs were determined by two ways: (1) in terms of the particle horizon and its derivatives, (2) in terms of the future horizon horizon and its derivatives.

Future as a Horizon of Expectations

This chapter adopts a sociological approach to conceptualize futurity as a horizon of expectations. It provides a practical application of sociological theory—future present and present future, horizon of expectations, futurization and defuturization—to contemporary discourse. It observes that hegemonic discourses emphasize ‘defuturization’—decreasing the openness of people’s present futures—and explores the problems this poses for the self-expression of younger generations. As well as exploring the impact of futurity/defuturization upon the development of processual research methods, the chapter reflects upon ways in which sociology may intervene in communicative practices and foster the capacity of individuals to work through their own horizons of expectations and open up the present future.

Desafios da inserção dos egressos e egressas da Licenciatura em Educação do Campo no trabalho docente

In this study, we made reflections of the challenges from inserting graduates into the teaching profession of the aforementioned course at the Universidade Federal Santa Catarina. We developed bibliographic research on the teaching work and the graduation project of this degree, document analysis, data collection with field research, of an exploratory nature, and the data gathering using a questionnaire. The results, still partial, indicate as limiting aspects: the non-inclusion of the qualification of a Licentiate Degree in Educação do Campo (Rural Education) in qualifying processes, the refusal of the graduate by the educational council and/or institutions, or being hired as non-qualified. Some situations were reversed by dialogue and appeals to public notices, an aspect considered as an enhancement. As a contradictory and emerging element to the debate, there is a restriction of the diploma and the job duties being valid only for rural schools. Advancing on the discussions about the degree and insertion in the teaching profession, we pointed out the relevance of the collective organization of the graduates through the movements that fights for Rural Education. Necessary improvements for the transformation of schools and for the future horizon.

Holographic chaos, pole-skipping, and regularity

We investigate the “pole-skipping” phenomenon in holographic chaos. According to pole-skipping, the energy-density Green’s function is not unique at a special point in the complex momentum plane. This arises because the bulk field equation has two regular near-horizon solutions at the special point. We study the regularity of the two solutions more carefully using curvature invariants. In the upper-half $\omega$-plane, one solution, which is normally interpreted as the outgoing mode, is in general singular at the future horizon and produces a curvature singularity. However, at the special point, both solutions are indeed regular. Moreover, the incoming mode cannot be uniquely defined at the special point due to these solutions.