High-resolution boreal winter precipitation projections over tropical America from CMIP5 models

2017 ◽  
Vol 51 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 1773-1792 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reiner Palomino-Lemus ◽  
Samir Córdoba-Machado ◽  
Sonia Raquel Gámiz-Fortis ◽  
Yolanda Castro-Díez ◽  
María Jesús Esteban-Parra
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Tropical America ◽  
Precipitation Projections

scholarly journals Comparison of regional characteristics of land precipitation climatology projected by an MRI-AGCM multi-cumulus scheme and multi-SST ensemble with CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Ito ◽  
Tosiyuki Nakaegawa ◽  
Izuru Takayabu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
High Performing

AbstractEnsembles of climate change projections created by general circulation models (GCMs) with high resolution are increasingly needed to develop adaptation strategies for regional climate change. The Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric GCM version 3.2 (MRI-AGCM3.2), which is listed in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), has been typically run with resolutions of 60 km and 20 km. Ensembles of MRI-AGCM3.2 consist of members with multiple cumulus convection schemes and different patterns of future sea surface temperature, and are utilized together with their downscaled data; however, the limited size of the high-resolution ensemble may lead to undesirable biases and uncertainty in future climate projections that will limit its appropriateness and effectiveness for studies on climate change and impact assessments. In this study, to develop a comprehensive understanding of the regional precipitation simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2, we investigate how well MRI-AGCM3.2 simulates the present-day regional precipitation around the globe and compare the uncertainty in future precipitation changes and the change projection itself between MRI-AGCM3.2 and the CMIP5 multiple atmosphere–ocean coupled GCM (AOGCM) ensemble. MRI-AGCM3.2 reduces the bias of the regional mean precipitation obtained with the high-performing CMIP5 models, with a reduction of approximately 20% in the bias over the Tibetan Plateau through East Asia and Australia. When 26 global land regions are considered, MRI-AGCM3.2 simulates the spatial pattern and the regional mean realistically in more regions than the individual CMIP5 models. As for the future projections, in 20 of the 26 regions, the sign of annual precipitation change is identical between the 50th percentiles of the MRI-AGCM3.2 ensemble and the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. In the other six regions around the tropical South Pacific, the differences in modeling with and without atmosphere–ocean coupling may affect the projections. The uncertainty in future changes in annual precipitation from MRI-AGCM3.2 partially overlaps the maximum–minimum uncertainty range from the full ensemble of the CMIP5 models in all regions. Moreover, on average over individual regions, the projections from MRI-AGCM3.2 spread over roughly 0.8 of the uncertainty range from the high-performing CMIP5 models compared to 0.4 of the range of the full ensemble.

Evaluation of a spatial rainfall generator for generating high resolution precipitation projections over orographically complex terrain

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 757-773 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corrado Camera ◽  
Adriana Bruggeman ◽  
Panos Hadjinicolaou ◽  
Silas Michaelides ◽  
Manfred A. Lange
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Precipitation Projections

scholarly journals Cross-Seasonal Relationship between the Boreal Autumn SAM and Winter Precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere in CMIP5

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (18) ◽  
pp. 6617-6636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ting Liu ◽  
Jianping Li ◽  
Juan Feng ◽  
Xiaofan Wang ◽  
Yang Li
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Decisive Role ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Type I ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
The Cross

Abstract Recent work suggests that the boreal autumn Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) favors a tripole pattern of winter precipitation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. This study focuses on the abilities of climate models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to reproduce the physical processes involved in this observed cross-seasonal connection. A systematic evaluation suggested that 16 out of 25 models were essentially capable of reproducing this cross-seasonal connection. Two categories of models were selected to explore the underlying reasons for these successful simulations. Models that successfully simulated the cross-seasonal relationship were placed in the type-I category, and these performed well in reproducing the related physical mechanism, known as the “coupled ocean–atmosphere bridge,” in terms of the SST variability associated with the SAM and response of the meridional circulation to these SST anomalies. In contrast, the type-II category of models showed poor performance in representing the related processes and associated feedbacks, and the model biases compromised the performance of the simulated cross-seasonal relationship. These results demonstrate that the capability of the CMIP5 models to reproduce SST variability associated with the boreal autumn SAM and related coupled ocean–atmosphere bridge process plays a decisive role in the successful simulation of the cross-seasonal relationship.

scholarly journals Climate change projections of boreal summer precipitation over tropical America by using statistical downscaling from CMIP5 models

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 124011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reiner Palomino-Lemus ◽  
Samir Córdoba-Machado ◽  
Sonia Raquel Gámiz-Fortis ◽  
Yolanda Castro-Díez ◽  
María Jesús Esteban-Parra
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Tropical America

Characteristics of winter precipitation over Northwest India using high-resolution gridded dataset (1901–2013)

2016 ◽  
Vol 147 ◽  
pp. 67-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.M. Nageswararao ◽  
U.C. Mohanty ◽  
S.S.V.S Ramakrishna ◽  
Archana Nair ◽  
S. Kiran Prasad
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Gridded Dataset ◽  
Northwest India

Applications of Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) in Winter Precipitation-Type Forecasts

2021 ◽  
Vol 60 (3) ◽  
pp. 361-375
Author(s):  
Daniel D. Tripp ◽  
Elinor R. Martin ◽  
Heather D. Reeves
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Mixed Phase ◽  
Winter Weather ◽  
Vertical Column ◽  
Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Crucial Information ◽  
Precipitation Type ◽  
Bin Microphysics ◽  
Weather Risks

AbstractTemperature and humidity profiles in the lowest 3 km of the atmosphere provide crucial information in determining the precipitation type, which aids forecasters in relaying winter-weather risks. In response to the challenges associated with forecasting mixed-phase environments, this study employs uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) to explore the efficacy of high-resolution temporal and vertical measurements in winter-weather environments. On 19 February 2019, boundary layer measurements of an Oklahoma winter storm were collected by a UAV and radiosondes. UAV observations show a pronounced surface-based subfreezing layer that corresponds to observed ice pellets at the surface. This is in contrast to the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model analyses, which show a subfreezing layer near the surface that is 3°C warmer than both the UAV and radiosonde observations. Using a spectral-bin-microphysics algorithm designed to provide hydrometeor-phase diagnosis throughout the vertical column, it was found that UAV measurements can improve discrimination between hydrometer types in environments near 0°C. A numerical-modeling study of the same winter-weather event illustrates the potential benefit of vertically sampling a mixed-phase environment at multiple mesonet sites and highlights future scientific and operational questions to be addressed by the UAV community.

Projections of future atmospheric circulation changes using the extratropical linear step response to tropical precipitation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natasha Senior ◽  
Adrian Matthews ◽  
Manoj Joshi
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Linear Response ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Linear Response Theory ◽  
Teleconnection Pattern ◽  
Step Response ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Response Theory ◽  
Circulation Changes

<p>The global hydrological cycle is expected to intensify under a warming climate. Since extratropical Rossby wave trains are triggered by tropical convection, this will impact the atmospheric circulation in the extratropics. Owing to the approximate linearity of the teleconnection pattern, we can use a method based in linear response theory to quantify this extratropical response using a step response function. We have examined the step response functions for a selection of CMIP5 pre-industrial control runs and reanalysis data,  in particular studying the response during the boreal winter. We found there to a large intermodel spread in the response pattern owing to differences in representations of the model basic state. In the current work, we use a 'perfect model' approach to conduct a systematic study of the performance of the linear response method in projecting future winter-time northern hemisphere circulation changes using the present day (1986-2005) model basic states, comparing these to those projected by CMIP5 models under a 3 degree rise in mean global temperature anomaly above pre-industrial. We demonstrate how, given a projected precipitation change pattern, the linear response theory method can compete with the models in providing faithful projections for the extratropical circulation changes.</p>

Is there any improvement in simulation of wintertime Western Pacific teleconnection pattern and associated climate anomalies in CMIP6 comparing with CMIP5 models?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-75
Author(s):  
Hasi Aru ◽  
Wen Chen ◽  
Shangfeng Chen
Keyword(s):  
Russian Far East ◽  
Far East ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Close Relation ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies

AbstractThe western Pacific pattern (WP) is one of the most important atmospheric teleconnections over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in boreal winter, which plays key roles in regulating weather and climate variations over many parts of the NH. This study evaluates ability of the coupled models participated in CMIP5 and CMIP6 in capturing the spatial pattern, dominant frequency, and associated climate anomalies of the winter WP. Ensemble means of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models well capture spatial structures of the WP, with slightly higher skills for the CMIP6. However, the northern (southern) centre of the WP is shifted westward (eastward) relative to the observations, and the strength of the northern centre is overestimated in most CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. CMIP6 shows an improvement in simulating the dominant periodicity of the WP. WP-related climatic anomalies in most parts of the NH can be well simulated. However, there exists a large spread across the models in simulating surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in Russian Far East and Northwest North America, which is attributable to the diversity of the intensity of the WP’s northern lobe. Most CMIP5 and CMIP6 models largely overestimate the WP-related precipitation anomalies over Siberia, which is partly due to the overestimation of mean precipitation there. Furthermore, most models simulate a close relation of the WP and Arctic Oscillation (AO), which does not exist in observation. The CMIP5 and CMIP6 models with weak WP-AO relations have better ability than the models with strong WP-AO relations in capturing the WP-related SAT and precipitation anomalies over the NH, especially over Eurasia.

scholarly journals Revisiting the Northern Mode of East Asian Winter Monsoon Variation and Its Response to Global Warming

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (21) ◽  
pp. 9001-9014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hainan Gong ◽  
Lin Wang ◽  
Wen Zhou ◽  
Wen Chen ◽  
Renguang Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
East Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Winter Monsoon ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Asian Winter Monsoon

This study revisits the northern mode of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) variation and investigates its response to global warming based on the ERA dataset and outputs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Results show that the observed variation in East Asian surface air temperature (EAT) is tightly coupled with sea level pressure variation in the expanded Siberian high (SH) region during boreal winter. The first singular value decomposition (SVD) mode of the EAT and SH explains 95% of the squared covariance in observations from 1961 to 2005, which actually represents the northern mode of EAWM variation. Meanwhile, the first SVD mode of the EAT and SH is verified to be equivalent to the first empirical orthogonal function mode (EOF1) of the EAT and SH, respectively. Since the leading mode of the temperature variation is significantly influenced by radiative forcing in a rapidly warming climate, for reliable projection of long-term changes in the northern mode of the EAWM, we further employ the EOF1 mode of the SH to represent the northern mode of EAWM variation. The models can well reproduce this coupling between the EAT and SH in historical simulations. Meanwhile, a robust weakening of the northern mode of the EAWM is found in the RCP4.5 scenario, and with stronger warming in the RCP8.5 scenario, the weakening of the EAWM is more pronounced. It is found that the weakening of the northern mode of the EAWM can contribute 6.7% and 9.4% of the warming trend in northern East Asian temperature under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively.

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