scholarly journals A theoretical relationship between probabilistic relative operating characteristic skill and deterministic correlation skill in dynamical seasonal climate prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dejian Yang ◽  
Youmin Tang ◽  
Xiu-Qun Yang ◽  
Dan Ye ◽  
Ting Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Roc Curve ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Seasonal Forecasting ◽  
Relative Operating Characteristic ◽  
Theoretical Relationship ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Important Significance ◽  
Roc Score

AbstractUnderstanding the relationship between probabilistic and deterministic prediction skills is of important significance for the study of seasonal forecasting and verification. Based on the Brier skill score methodology, we have previously found a theoretical relationship between the probabilistic resolution skill and the deterministic correlation (i.e., anomaly correlation; AC) skill and a lack of necessary or consistent relationship between the probabilistic reliability skill and the deterministic skill in dynamical seasonal prediction. Here, we further theoretically investigate the relationship between the probabilistic relative operating characteristic (ROC) skill and the deterministic skill. The ROC measures the discrimination attribute of probabilistic forecast quality, another important attribute besides the resolution and reliability. With some simplified assumptions, we first derive theoretical expressions for the hit and false-alarm rates that are basic ingredients for the ROC curve, then demonstrate a sole dependence of the ROC curve on the AC, and finally analytically derive a relationship between the related ROC score and the AC. Such a theoretically derived ROC-AC relationship is further examined using dynamical models’ ensemble seasonal hindcasts, which is well verified. The finding here along with our previous findings implies that the discrimination and resolution attributes of probabilistic seasonal forecast skill are intrinsically equivalent to the corresponding deterministic skill, while the reliability appears to be the fundamental attribute of the probabilistic skill that differs from the deterministic skill, which constitutes an understanding of the fundamental similarities and difference between the two types of seasonal forecasting skills and predictability and can offer important implications for the study of seasonal forecasting and verification.

SOX9 stands for a bio-marker for prostate cancer detection

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Zi ◽  
Wen-Lin Tao ◽  
Lei Gao ◽  
Zhao-Hua Yu ◽  
Xiao-Dong Bai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Cancer Detection ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Diagnostic Value ◽  
Quantitative Real Time Pcr ◽  
Optimal Cutoff ◽  
Qrt Pcr ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background Prostate cancer is one of common cancers around the world, and in our country the incidence and mortality of PCa are both increasing. More and more reports have revealed that SOX9 is involved in various human cancers. In this study, we aimed to explore the relationship between SOX9 expression and diagnostic value of PCa patients. Methods In this study, quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) was performed to determine the expression of SOX9 of the 131 PCa patients and 74 healthy volunteers. And receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the diagnostic value of SOX9 for PCa patients. Results The results of qRT-PCR showed that the expression of serum SOX9 in PCa patients was higher than that in healthy controls (P < 0.05). And the expression of SOX9 was significantly associated with PSA (P = 0.001), differentiation (P = 0.000), and lymph node metastasis (P = 0.000). Besides, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.966 with the sensitivity of 93.2% and specificity of 87.8% respectively. The optimal cutoff value of SOX9 was 2.34. Conclusions Our results found that SOX9 is a novel oncogene for PCa, and may be a novel and effective biomarker for the diagnosis of patients with PCa.

scholarly journals An Extended Procedure for Implementing the Relative Operating Characteristic Graphical Method

2006 ◽  
Vol 45 (9) ◽  
pp. 1215-1223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fredrick H. M. Semazzi ◽  
Roberto J. Mera
Keyword(s):  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Graphical Method ◽  
General Procedure ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
End User ◽  
Relative Operating Characteristic ◽  
Typical Situation ◽  
Pass Through

Abstract The functional relationship between the relative operating characteristic (ROC) and the economic value (EV) graphical methods have been exploited to develop a hybrid procedure called the extended ROC (EROC) method. The EROC retains the appealing simplicity of the traditional ROC method and the ability of the EV method to provide evaluation of the performance of an ensemble climate prediction system (EPS) for a hypothetical end user defined by the cost–loss ratio (μ = C/L). An inequality defining the lower and upper theoretical bounds of μ has been derived. Outside these limits, the EPS yields no added benefits for end user μ relative to the use of climatological persistence as an alternative prediction system. In the traditional ROC graphical method, the ROC skill (ROCS) is often expressed in terms of the area between the ROC graph and the diagonal baseline passing through the origin with slope m = 1. Thus, ROCS = 2A − 1, where A is the area under the ROC graph. In the proposed EROC approach, a more general procedure is recommended based on the construction of user-specific baselines that do not necessarily pass through the origin and, in general, have slope m ≠ 1. The skill of a particular EPS computed from the EROC method is proportional to the corresponding estimated value based on the EV graphical method. Therefore, the EROC geometry conveys the same basic information as the EV method. The Semazzi–Mera skill score (SMSS) is proposed as a convenient and compact way of expressing the combined verification based on the ROC and EV methods. The ROCS estimate is a special case of the SMSS. The near-horizontal trail-like geometry sometimes exhibited by EV graphs is also examined. It is shown to occur when either the hit-rate or false-alarm term dominates in the formula for EV, unlike the more typical situation in which both terms are comparable in magnitude.

scholarly journals Comparisons of QPFs Derived from Single- and Multicore Convection-Allowing Ensembles

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (6) ◽  
pp. 1955-1964
Author(s):  
Adam J. Clark
Keyword(s):  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Ensemble Forecast ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Relative Operating Characteristic ◽  
Core System ◽  
Testing And Evaluation ◽  
Better Than

Abstract This study compares ensemble precipitation forecasts from 10-member, 3-km grid-spacing, CONUS domain single- and multicore ensembles that were a part of the 2016 Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE) that was run for the 2016 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. The main results are that a 10-member ARW ensemble was significantly more skillful than a 10-member NMMB ensemble, and a 10-member MIX ensemble (5 ARW and 5 NMMB members) performed about the same as the 10-member ARW ensemble. Skill was measured by area under the relative operating characteristic curve (AUC) and fractions skill score (FSS). Rank histograms in the ARW ensemble were flatter than the NMMB ensemble indicating that the envelope of ensemble members better encompassed observations (i.e., better reliability) in the ARW. Rank histograms in the MIX ensemble were similar to the ARW ensemble. In the context of NOAA’s plans for a Unified Forecast System featuring a CAM ensemble with a single core, the results are positive and indicate that it should be possible to develop a single-core system that performs as well as or better than the current operational CAM ensemble, which is known as the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast System (HREF). However, as new modeling applications are developed and incremental changes that move HREF toward a single-core system are made possible, more thorough testing and evaluation should be conducted.

scholarly journals The Role of Red Blood Cell Distribution Width in the Severity and Prognosis of Community-Acquired Pneumonia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Qiang Ren ◽  
Hebing Liu ◽  
Ying Wang ◽  
Deyu Dai ◽  
Zhennan Tian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Roc Curve ◽  
Inflammatory Markers ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
White Blood Cells ◽  
Community Acquired Pneumonia ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
Distribution Width ◽  
Reactive Protein ◽  
The Relationship

Objectives. The objective of this study is to unravel the correlation between RDW and the severity and prognosis of CAP, as well as exploring RDW with the inflammatory markers white blood cells (WBC), C-reactive protein (CRP), and procalcitonin (PCT). Methods. According to the data characteristics, appropriate statistical methods were selected to analyze the relationship between RDW and the severity and prognosis of CAP patients and to determine whether RDW is associated with the inflammatory markers WBC, CRP, and PCT. Results. The results show that with the increase of PSI and CURB-65 values, the proportion of patients with RDW ≥ 12.987% is significantly higher than that of RDW < 12.987% ( P < 0.01 ). When RDW is combined with PSI or CURB-65 to predict the 90-day mortality of CAP patients, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve increased prominently, and if RDW, PSI, and CURB-65 are combined, the area under the ROC curve is maximized. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that the higher RDW value is associated with short-term adverse outcomes in CAP patients. We also find that when RDW, PSI, and CURB-65 are combined, the best performance is achieved to predict CAP 90-day mortality risk.

scholarly journals Clinical Significance of Preoperative Serum CEA, CA125, and CA19-9 Levels in Predicting the Resectability of Cholangiocarcinoma

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianyi Fang ◽  
Hao Wang ◽  
Yufu Wang ◽  
Xuan Lin ◽  
Yunfu Cui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Significance ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Inclusion Criteria ◽  
Unresectable Tumor ◽  
Preoperative Serum ◽  
Serum Cea ◽  
Medical University ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Ideal

To explore the clinical significance of preoperative serum CEA, CA125, and CA19-9 levels in predicting the resectability of cholangiocarcinoma. Patients with cholangiocarcinoma diagnosed by radiologic examination and admitted to the Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University from September 1, 2011, to November 30, 2017, were retrospectively included. The relationship between the preoperative serum CEA, CA125, and CA19-9 levels and the resectability of cholangiocarcinoma was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, as well as the best cut-off point. A total of 112 met the inclusion criteria. In 50 patients with radical surgeries, the levels of preoperative serums CEA, CA125, and CA19-9 were 5.0 ± 13.9 ng/mL, 15.3 ± 11.8 U/mL, and 257.5 ± 325.6 U/mL, respectively, which were lower than those in patients with unresectable tumor. Based on the ROC curve, the ideal CA19-9 cut-off value was determined to be 1064.1 U/mL in prediction of resectability, with a sensitivity of 53.2%, a specificity of 94.0%, and the area under the ROC curve of 0.73 (P<0.05). The cut-off value of CA125 was 17.8 U/mL with a sensitivity of 72.6%, a specificity of 78.0%, and the area under the ROC curve of 0.81 (P<0.05). The cut-off value of CEA was 2.6 ng/mL with a sensitivity of 79.0%, a specificity of 48.0%, and the area under the ROC curve of 0.66 (P<0.05). In addition to this, we found that using the combination of three tumor markers could improve the value in predicting resectability of cholangiocarcinoma. In summary, this study suggested that the preoperative serum CEA, CA125, and CA19-9 levels can help predict the resectability of cholangiocarcinoma.

scholarly journals SOX9 stands for a bio-marker for prostate cancer detection

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Zi ◽  
Wen-Lin Tao ◽  
Lei Gao ◽  
Zhao-Hua Yu ◽  
Xiao-Dong Bai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Cancer Detection ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Diagnostic Value ◽  
Quantitative Real Time Pcr ◽  
Optimal Cutoff ◽  
Qrt Pcr ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background Prostate cancer is one of common cancers around the world, and in our country the incidence and mortality of PCa are both increasing. More and more reports have revealed that SOX9 is involved in various human cancers. In this study, we aimed to explore the relationship between SOX9 expression and diagnostic value of PCa patients. Methods In this study, quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) was performed to determine the expression of SOX9 of the 131 PCa patients and 74 healthy volunteers. And receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the diagnostic value of SOX9 for PCa patients. Results The results of qRT-PCR showed that the expression of serum SOX9 in PCa patients was higher than that in healthy controls (P < 0.05). And the expression of SOX9 was significantly associated with PSA (P = 0.001), differentiation (P = 0.000), and lymph node metastasis (P = 0.000). Besides, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.966 with the sensitivity of 93.2% and specificity of 87.8% respectively. The optimal cutoff value of SOX9 was 2.34. Conclusions Our results found that SOX9 is a novel oncogene for PCa, and may be a novel and effective biomarker for the diagnosis of patients with PCa.

scholarly journals Ability of Non-Invasive Tear Break-Up Time to Determine Tear Instability in Contact Lens Wearers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ersin Muhafiz ◽  
Mehmet Siraç Demir
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Contact Lens ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Area Under Curve ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Tear Film ◽  
Non Invasive ◽  
Automated Method ◽  
Break Up ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Purpose To evaluate the performance of precorneal and prelens non-invasive tear break-up time (NIBUT) measurements to determine tear instability in contact lens (CL) wearers.Methods In this study 50 eyes of CL wearers were evaluated. Precorneal first and average NIBUTs and fluorescein tear break-up time (FBUT) were measured before wearing CLs in the morning. Those with FBUT less than 10 seconds were considered to have tear instability. After wearing CL, first and average prelens NIBUTs were measured at the 30th minute. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was analyzed to evaluate the performance of NIBUT measurements in the diagnosis of tear instability.Results The FBUT value had a significant correlation with first and average precorneal NIBUT values (p < 0.001, r = 0.653 and p < 0.001, r = 0.628,respectively). The FBUT value had no correlation with the prelens first and average NIBUT values (p = 0.542 and p = 0.263,respectively). To understand the relationship between the precorneal and prelens NIBUT values measured by the automated method, their correlation was evaluated. There was no significant correlation between the precorneal and prelens NIBUTs (for all;p > 0.05).The area under curve (AUC) in ROC curve for the first and average precorneal NIBUTs were 0.842 (p<0.001) and 0.810 (p<0.001), respectively. The AUC values for the first and average prelens NIBUTs at the 30th minute of CL wear were 0.586 and 0.619 respectively (p=0.317 and p=0.166, respectively). Conclusions: Precorneal NIBUT measurements may be useful in diagnosing tear instability in CL wearers. Prelens NIBUT values are not yet capable of adequately defining the tear film dynamics.

scholarly journals Analog Sky Condition Forecasting Based on a k-nn Algorithm

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 1463-1478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy J. Hall ◽  
Rachel N. Thessin ◽  
Greg J. Bloy ◽  
Carl N. Mutchler
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Nearest Neighbors ◽  
K Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Relative Operating Characteristic ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Commercial Activities ◽  
Historical Database ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Roc Score

Abstract Very short-range, cloudy–clear sky condition forecasts are important for a variety of military, civil, and commercial activities. In this investigation, an approach based on a k-nearest neighbors (k-nn) algorithm was developed and implemented to query a historical database to identify historical analogs matching the features of a specific instance. This ensemble of analogs was then used to make a probabilistic, clear-sky condition forecast for 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 h into the future, for local and regional target types in two geographically distinct regions within the continental United States. The analogs were identified in a database comprised of a multiyear, half-hourly time series of atmospheric features that included cloud features identified in weather satellite imagery and meteorological variables extracted or derived from data-assimilation-based model analyses generated by NCEP’s Eta Data Assimilation System. The analog forecast scheme’s performance exceeded persistence at all five forecast intervals for both target types in both regimes based on a group of metrics including the relative operating characteristic (ROC) score, sharpness, accuracy, skill, expected normalized best cost, and reliability.

Humanism and Music

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher M. Driscoll
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Popular Culture ◽  
Popular Music ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Contemporary Music ◽  
Theoretical Relationship ◽  
Rock Band ◽  
Historical Developments ◽  
The Relationship

This chapter explores the relationship between humanism and music, giving attention to important theoretical and historical developments, before focusing on four brief case studies rooted in popular culture. The first turns to rock band Modest Mouse as an example of music as a space of humanist expression. Next, the chapter explores Austin-based Rock band Quiet Company and Westcoast rapper Ras Kass and their use of music to critique religion. Last, the chapter discusses contemporary popular music created by artificial intelligence and considers what non-human production of music suggests about the category of the human and, resultantly, humanism. These case studies give attention to the historical and theoretical relationship between humanism and music, and they offer examples of that relationship as it plays out in contemporary music.

scholarly journals Statistical Assessment of Discrimination Capabilities of a Fractional Calculus Based Image Watermarking System for Gaussian Watermarks

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 255
Author(s):  
Mario Gonzalez-Lee ◽  
Hector Vazquez-Leal ◽  
Luis J. Morales-Mendoza ◽  
Mariko Nakano-Miyatake ◽  
Hector Perez-Meana ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fractional Calculus ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Gaussian Noise ◽  
False Positive ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Image Watermarking ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Statistical Assessment ◽  
Watermarking Scheme ◽  
Fractional Equation

In this paper, we explore the advantages of a fractional calculus based watermarking system for detecting Gaussian watermarks. To reach this goal, we selected a typical watermarking scheme and replaced the detection equation set by another set of equations derived from fractional calculus principles; then, we carried out a statistical assessment of the performance of both schemes by analyzing the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and the False Positive Percentage (FPP) when they are used to detect Gaussian watermarks. The results show that the ROC of a fractional equation based scheme has 48.3% more Area Under the Curve (AUC) and a False Positives Percentage median of 0.2% whilst the selected typical watermarking scheme has 3%. In addition, the experimental results suggest that the target applications of fractional schemes for detecting Gaussian watermarks are as a semi-fragile image watermarking systems robust to Gaussian noise.

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