scholarly journals Evaluating the impact of climate change on extreme temperature and precipitation events over the Kashmir Himalaya

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shafkat Ahsan ◽  
M. Sultan Bhat ◽  
Akhtar Alam ◽  
Hakim Farooq ◽  
Hilal Ahmad Shiekh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
General Tendency ◽  
Kashmir Himalaya ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe frequency and severity of climatic extremes is expected to escalate in the future primarily because of the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the extreme temperature and precipitation scenarios using climate indices in the Kashmir Himalaya. The analysis has been carried out for the twenty-first century under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) through the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and ClimPACT2. The simulation reveals that the climate in the region will get progressively warmer in the future by increments of 0.36–1.48 °C and 0.65–1.07 °C in mean maximum and minimum temperatures respectively, during 2080s (2071–2100) relative to 1980–2010 under RCP8.5. The annual precipitation is likely to decrease by a maximum of 2.09–6.61% (2080s) under RCP8.5. The seasonal distribution of precipitation is expected to alter significantly with winter, spring, and summer seasons marking reductions of 9%, 5.7%, and 1.7%, respectively during 2080s under RCP8.5. The results of extreme climate evaluation show significant increasing trends for warm temperature-based indices and decreasing trends for cold temperature-based indices. Precipitation indices on the other hand show weaker and spatially incoherent trends with a general tendency towards dry regimes. The projected scenarios of extreme climate indices may result in large-scale adverse impacts on the environment and ecological resource base of the Kashmir Himalaya.

The impact of climate change on cocoa production in West Africa

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 296-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth Ofori-Boateng ◽  
Baba Insah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Yield Response ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Cocoa Production ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The study aimed at examining the current and future impact of climate change on cocoa production in West Africa. Design/methodology/approach – A translog production function based on crop yield response framework was used. A panel model was estimated using data drawn from cocoa-producing countries in West Africa. An in-sample simulation was used to determine the predictive power of the model. In addition, an out-sample simulation revealed the effect of future trends of temperature and precipitation on cocoa output. Findings – Temperature and precipitation play a considerable role in cocoa production in West Africa. It was established that extreme temperature adversely affected cocoa output in the sub-region. Furthermore, increasing temperature and declining precipitation trends will reduce cocoa output in the future. Practical implications – An important implication of this study is the recognition that lagging effects are the determinants of cocoa output and not coincident effects. This finds support from the agronomic point of view considering the gestation period of the cocoa crop. Originality/value – Although several studies have been carried out in this area, this study modeled and estimated the interacting effects of factors that influence cocoa production. This is closer to reality, as climatic factors and agricultural inputs combine to yield output.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on hydropower production in the Upper Danube

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignacio Martin Santos ◽  
Mathew Herrnegger ◽  
Hubert Holzmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Transfer Functions ◽  
Danube River ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Hydropower Generation ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

<p>In the last two decades, different climate downscaling initiatives provided climate scenarios for Europe. The most recent initiative, CORDEX, provides Regional Climate Model (RCM) data for Europe with a spatial resolution of 12.5 km, while the previous initiative, ENSEMBLES, had a spatial resolution of 25 km. They are based on different emission scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) respectively.</p><p>A study carried out by Stanzel et al. (2018) explored the hydrological impact and discharge projections for the Danube basin upstream of Vienna when using either CORDEX and ENSEMBLES data. This basin covers an area of 101.810<sup></sup>km<sup>2</sup> with a mean annual discharge of 1923 m<sup>3</sup>/s at the basin outlet. The basin is dominated by the Alps, large gradients and is characterized by high annual precipitations sums which provides valuable water resources available along the basin. Hydropower therefore plays an important role and accounts for more than half of the installed power generating capacity for this area. The estimation of hydropower generation under climate change is an important task for planning the future electricity supply, also considering the on-going EU efforts and the “Green Deal” initiative.</p><p>Taking as input the results from Stanzel et al. (2018), we use transfer functions derived from historical discharge and hydropower generation data, to estimate potential changes for the future. The impact of climate change projections of ENSEMBLE and CORDEX in respect to hydropower generation for each basin within the study area is determined. In addition, an assessment of the impact on basins dominated by runoff river plants versus basins dominated by storage plants is considered.</p><p>The good correlation between discharge and hydropower generation found in the historical data suggests that discharge projection characteristics directly affect the future expected hydropower generation. Large uncertainties exist and stem from the ensembles of climate runs, but also from the potential operation modes of the (storage) hydropower plants in the future.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p>References:</p><p>Stanzel, P., Kling, H., 2018. From ENSEMBLES to CORDEX: Evolving climate change projections for Upper Danube River flow. J. Hydrol. 563, 987–999. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.06.057</p><p> </p>

Representation of the Angolan low and Southern African Summer Precipitation in the CORDEX and CMIP5 models. 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabina Abba-Omar ◽  
Francesca Raffaele ◽  
Erika Coppola ◽  
Daniela Jacob ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rainfall Patterns ◽  
The Impact

<p>The impact of climate change on precipitation over Southern Africa is of particular interest due to its possible devastating societal impacts. To add to this, simulating precipitation is challenging and models tend to show strong biases over this region, especially during the Austral Summer (DJF) months. One of the reasons for this is the mis-representation of the Angolan Low (AL) and its influence on Southern Africa’s Summer precipitation in the models. Therefore, this study aims to explore and compare different models’ ability to capture the AL and its link to precipitation variability as well as consider the impact climate change may have on this link. We also explore how the interaction between ENSO, another important mode of variability for precipitation, and the Angolan Low, impact precipitation, how the models simulate this and whether this could change in the future under climate change. </p><p>We computed the position and strength of the AL in reanalysis data and compared these results to three different model ensembles with varying resolutions. Namely, the CORDEX-CORE ensemble (CCORE), a new phase of CORDEX simulations with higher resolutions (0.22 degrees), the lower resolution (0.44 degrees) CORDEX-phase 1 ensemble (C44) and the CMIP5 models that drive the two RCM ensembles. We also used Self Organizing Maps to group DJF yearly anomaly patterns and identify which combination of ENSO and AL strength scenarios are responsible for particularly wet or dry conditions. Regression analysis was performed to analyze the relationships between precipitation and the AL and ENSO. This analysis was repeated for near (2041-2060) and far (2080-2099) future climate and compared with the present to understand how the strength of the AL, and its connection to precipitation variability and ENSO, changes in the future. </p><p>We found that, in line with previous studies, models with stronger AL tend to produce more rainfall. CCORE tends to simulate a stronger AL than C44 and therefore, higher precipitation biases. However, the regression analysis shows us that CCORE is able to capture the relationship between precipitation and the AL strength variability as well as ENSO better than the other ensembles. We found that generally dry rainfall patterns over Southern Africa are associated with a weak AL and El Nino event whereas wet rainfall patterns occur during a strong AL and La Nina year. While the models are able to capture this, they also tend to show more neutral ENSO conditions associated with these wet and dry patterns which possibly indicates less of a connection between AL strength and ENSO than seen in the observed results. Analysis of the future results indicates that the AL weakens, this is shown across all the ensembles and could be a contributing factor to some of the drying seen. These results have applications in understanding and improving model representation of precipitation over Southern Africa as well as providing some insight into the impact of climate change on precipitation and some of its associated dynamics over this region.</p>

Impact of Climate Change on Tourism

2022 ◽  
pp. 1519-1534
Author(s):  
Samreen Siddiqui ◽  
Muhammad Imran
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Industry Type ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Geographical Locations ◽  
Different Levels

Climate change is an influencing phenomenon in present global perspective having a wide range of impacts at different levels within the society and industries. This chapter introduces the climate change basics and its major impacts on the global environment. Further, it describes the tourism industry and identifies its relationship with climate change. Scientists take different approaches to deal with climate indices and their application to identify the impact of climate change on the tourism industry. This chapter classifies the tourism industry into different industry type based on the regional characteristics links with the geographical locations. Climate effects have been discussed with different case studies and regions. Then the chapter has been concluded with the major overall impact of climate change in terms of temperature rise, sea level rise (SLR), change in precipitation and extreme events in some cases, on the tourism industry, and next steps to be taken towards sustainable tourism industry.

Impact of climate change on water requirements and growth of potato in different climatic zones of Montenegro

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 657-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirko Knežević ◽  
Ljubomir Zivotić ◽  
Nataša Čereković ◽  
Ana Topalović ◽  
Nikola Koković ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Viable Solution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on potato cultivation in Montenegro was assessed. Three scenarios (A1B, A1Bs and A2) for 2001–2030, 2071–2100 and 2071–2100, respectively, were generated by a regional climate model and compared with the baseline period 1961–1990. The results indicated an increase of temperature during the summer season from 1.3 to 4.8 °C in the mountain region and from 1 to 3.4 °C in the coastal zone. The precipitation decreased between 5 and 50% depending on the scenario, region and season. The changes in temperature and precipitation influenced phenology, yield and water needs. The impact was more pronounced in the coastal areas than in the mountain regions. The growing season was shortened 13.6, 22.9 and 29.7 days for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. The increase of irrigation requirement was 4.0, 19.5 and 7.3 mm for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. For the baseline conditions, yield reduction under rainfed cultivation was lower than 30%. For A1B, A1Bs and A2 scenarios, yield reductions were 31.0 ± 8.2, 36.3 ± 11.6 and 34.1 ± 10.9%, respectively. Possible adaptation measures include shifting of production to the mountain (colder) areas and irrigation application. Rainfed cultivation remains a viable solution when the anticipation of sowing is adopted.

scholarly journals Spatial Heterogeneity and Complexity of the Impact of Extreme Climate on Vegetation in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 5748
Author(s):  
Shuang Li ◽  
Feili Wei ◽  
Zheng Wang ◽  
Jiashu Shen ◽  
Ze Liang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
Dry Spell ◽  
Compound Type ◽  
The Impact

The impact of extreme climate on natural ecosystems and socioeconomic systems is more serious than that of the climate’s mean state. Based on the data of 1698 meteorological stations in China from 2001 to 2018, this study calculated the 27 extreme climate indices of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Through correlation analysis and collinearity diagnostics, we selected two representative extreme temperature indices and three extreme precipitation indices. The spatial scale of the impact of extreme climate on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in China during the growing season from 2001 to 2018 was quantitatively analyzed, and the complexity of the dominant factors in different regions was discussed via clustering analysis. The research results show that extreme climate indices have a scale effect on vegetation. There are spatial heterogeneities in the impacts of different extreme climate indices on vegetation, and these impacts varied between the local, regional and national scales. The relationship between the maximum length of a dry spell (CDD) and NDVI was the most spatially nonstationary, and mostly occurred on the local scale, while the effect of annual total precipitation when the daily precipitation amount was more than the 95th percentile (R95pTOT) showed the greatest spatial stability, and mainly manifested at the national scale. Under the current extreme climate conditions, extreme precipitation promotes vegetation growth, while the influence of extreme temperature is more complicated. As regards intensity and range, the impact of extreme climate on NDVI in China over the past 18 years can be categorized into five types: the humidity-promoting type, the cold-promoting and drought-inhibiting compound type, the drought-inhibiting type, the heat-promoting and drought-inhibiting compound type, and the heat-promoting and humidity-promoting compound type. Drought is the greatest threat to vegetation associated with extreme climate in China.

Indices for daily temperature and precipitation based on quality controlled and homogenized data in Madagascar

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luc Yannick Andréas Randriamarolaza ◽  
Enric Aguilar ◽  
Oleg Skrynyk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Missing Data ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Low Density ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

<p>Madagascar is an Island in Western Indian Ocean Region. It is mainly exposed to the easterly trade winds and has a rugged topography, which promote different local climates and biodiversity. Climate change inflicts a challenge on Madagascar socio-economic activities. However, Madagascar has low density station and sparse networks on observational weather stations to detect changes in climate. On average, one station covers more than 20 000 km<sup>2</sup> and closer neighbor stations are less correlated. Previous studies have demonstrated the changes on Madagascar climate, but this paper contributes and enhances the approach to assess the quality control and homogeneity of Madagascar daily climate data before developing climate indices over 1950 – 2018 on 28 synoptic stations. Daily climate data of minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation are exploited.</p><p>Firstly, the quality of daily climate data is controlled by INQC developed and maintained by Center for Climate Change (C3) of Rovira i Virgili University, Spain. It ascertains and improves error detections by using six flag categories. Most errors detected are due to digitalization and measurement.</p><p>Secondly, daily quality controlled data are homogenized by using CLIMATOL. It uses relative homogenization methods, chooses candidate reference series automatically and infills the missing data in the original data. It has ability to manage low density stations and low inter-station correlations and is tolerable for missing data. Monthly break points are detected by CLIMATOL and used to split daily climate data to be homogenized.</p><p>Finally, climate indices are calculated by using CLIMIND package which is developed by INDECIS<sup>*</sup> project. Compared to previous works done, data period is updated to 10 years before and after and 15 new climate indices mostly related to extremes are computed. On temperature, significant increasing and decreasing decade trends of day-to-day and extreme temperature ranges are important in western and eastern areas respectively. On average decade trends of temperature extremes, significant increasing of daily minimum temperature is greater than daily maximum temperature. Many stations indicate significant decreasing in very cold nights than significant increasing in very warm days. Their trends are almost 1 day per decade over 1950 – 2018. Warming is mainly felt during nighttime and daytime in Oriental and Occidental parts respectively. In contrast, central uplands are warming all the time but tropical nights do not appear yet. On rainfall, no major significant findings are found but intense precipitation might be possible at central uplands due to shortening of longest wet period and occurrence of heavy precipitation. However, no influence detected on total precipitation which is still decreasing over 1950 - 2018. Future works focus on merging of relative homogenization methodologies to ameliorate the results.</p><p>-------------------</p><p>*INDECIS is a part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS (SE), DLR (DE), BMWFW (AT), IFD (DK), MINECO (ES), ANR (FR) with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462).</p>

Impact of Climate Change on River Flows in the Black Volta River

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 432-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nobuhiko Sawai ◽  
◽  
Kenichiro Kobayashi ◽  
Apip ◽  
Kaoru Takara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Present Climate ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

This paper assesses the impact of climate change in the Black Volta River by using data output from the atmospheric general circulation model with a 20-km resolution (AGCM20) through the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). The Black Volta, which flows mainly in Burkina Faso and Ghana in West Africa, is a major tributary of the Volta River. The basin covers 142,056 km2 and has a semi-arid tropical climate. Before applying AGCM20 output to a rainfall–runoff model, the performance of the AGCM20 rainfall data is investigated by comparing it with the observed rainfall in the Black Volta Basin. To assess the possible impact of rainfall change on river flow, a kinematic wave model, which takes into consideration saturated and unsaturated subsurface soil zones, was performed. The rainfall analysis shows that, the correlation coefficient of the monthly rainfall between the observed rainfall and AGCM20 for the present climate (1979–2004) is 0.977. In addition, the analysis shows that AGCM20 overestimates precipitation during the rainy season and underestimates the dry season for the present climate. The analysis of the AGCM20 output shows the precipitation pattern change in the future (2075–2099). In the future, precipitation is expected to increase by 3%, whereas evaporation and transpiration are expected to increase by 5% and by 8%, respectively. Also, daily maximum rainfall is expected to be 20 mm, or 60%, higher. Thus, the future climate in this region is expected to be more severe. The rainfall–runoff simulation is successfully calibrated at the Bamboi discharge gauging station in the Black Volta fromJune 2000 to December 2000 with 0.72 of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency index. The model is applied with AGCM20 outputs for the present climate (1979–2004) and future climate (2075–2099). The results indicate that future discharge will decrease from January to July at the rate of the maximum of 50% and increase fromAugust to December at the rate of the maximumof 20% in the future. Therefore, comprehensive planning for both floods and droughts are urgently needed in this region.

Impact of climate change on ice regime in a river regulated for hydropower

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (9) ◽  
pp. 634-644 ◽  
Author(s):  
Netra P. Timalsina ◽  
Knut T. Alfredsen ◽  
Ånund Killingtveit
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Regulated River ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Ice Regime ◽  
The Impact

The ice conditions in a regulated river will depend on the climatic changes as well as the changes to the hydropower operation strategies in the future. The existing literature shows that very few studies have been carried out to investigate the impact of climate change on the river ice regime, which is important for operation of hydropower in cold climates. In this study, a series of modelling tools have been used to transform the climate change signal in terms of precipitation and air temperature into cross-section based river ice assessment in a basin with a complicated hydropower system. The study is based on the EURO-CORDEX climate change data extracted from a regional climate model driven by a suite of five general circulation models with three representative concentration pathways. Hydrological model simulation results show that the winter and spring flow will be increased, which will have an impact on the river ice conditions towards the middle and end of this century. Reservoir-hydropower model simulation shows that the production flows in the winter will be increased in the future. River ice model simulation shows the number of days with freezing water temperature are reduced in the future climate, and correspondingly days with frazil ice are reduced at most of the locations in the study area. The future period with ice cover will also be shortened. The paper also demonstrates a general methodology and procedure to simulate future ice conditions in a regulated river combining multiple models and data sets.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 266-281
Author(s):  
Allan Sriratana Tabucanon ◽  
◽  
Areeya Rittima ◽  
Detchasit Raveephinit ◽  
Yutthana Phankamolsil ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Operating Rules ◽  
Operation Rules ◽  
The Future ◽  
Reservoir Release ◽  
The Impact

Bhumibol Dam is the largest dam in the central region of Thailand and it serves as an important water resource. The dam’s operation relies on reservoir operating rules that were developed on the basis of the relationships among rainfall-inflow, water balance, and downstream water demand. However, due to climate change, changing rainfall variability is expected to render the reliability of the rule curves insecure. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of climate change on the reliability of the current reservoir operation rules of Bhumibol Dam. The future scenarios from 2000 to 2099 are based on EC-EARTH under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios downscaled by RegCM4. MIKE11 HD was developed for the inflow simulation. The model generates the inflow well (R2=0.70). Generally, the trend of increasing inflow amounts is expected to continue in the dry seasons from 2000-2099, while large fluctuations of inflow are expected to be found in the wet seasons, reflecting high uncertainties. In the case of standard deviations, a larger deviation is predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. For the reservoir’s operation in a climate change study, standard operating procedures were applied using historical release records to estimate daily reservoir release needed to serve downstream water demand in the future. It can be concluded that there is high risk of current reservoir operating rules towards the operation reliability under RCP4.5 (80% reliability), but the risk is lower under RCP8.5 (87% reliability) due to increased inflow amounts. The unmanageability occurs in the wet season, cautioning the need to redesign the rules.

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