scholarly journals Factors affecting the COVID-19 risk in the US counties: an innovative approach by combining unsupervised and supervised learning

Author(s):  
Samira Ziyadidegan ◽  
Moein Razavi ◽  
Homa Pesarakli ◽  
Amir Hossein Javid ◽  
Madhav Erraguntla
Author(s):  
Samira Ziyadidegan ◽  
Moein Razavi ◽  
Homa Pesarakli ◽  
Amir Hossein Javid

The COVID-19 disease spreads swiftly, and nearly three months after the first positive case was confirmed in China, Coronavirus started to spread all over the United States. Some states and counties reported an extremely high number of positive cases and deaths, while some reported too few COVID-19 related cases and mortality. In this paper, the factors that could affect the transmission of COVID-19 and its risk level in different counties have been determined and analyzed. Using Pearson Correlation, K-means clustering, and several classification models, the most critical ones were determined. Results showed that mean temperature, percent of people below poverty, percent of adults with obesity, air pressure, percentage of rural areas, and percent of uninsured people in each county were the most significant and effective attributes.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samira Ziyadidegan ◽  
Moein Razavi ◽  
Homa Pesarakli ◽  
Amirhossein Javid ◽  
Madhav Erraguntla

Abstract The COVID-19 disease spreads swiftly, and nearly three months after the first positive case was confirmed in China, Coronavirus started to spread all over the United States. Some states and counties reported high number of positive cases and deaths, while some reported lower COVID-19 related cases and mortality. In this paper, the factors that could affect the risk of COVID-19 infection and mortality were analyzed in county level. An innovative method by using K-means clustering and several classification models is utilized to determine the most critical factors. Results showed that mean temperature, percent of people below poverty, percent of adults with obesity, air pressure, population density, wind speed, longitude, and percent of uninsured people were the most significant attributes.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanmo Li ◽  
Mengyang Gu

AbstractThe COVID-19 outbreak is asynchronous in US counties. Mitigating the COVID-19 transmission requires not only the state and federal level order of protective measures such as social distancing and testing, but also public awareness of time-dependent risk and reactions at county and community levels. We propose a robust approach to estimate the heterogeneous progression of SARS-CoV-2 at all US counties having no less than 2 COVID-19 associated deaths, and we use the daily probability of contracting (PoC) SARS-CoV-2 for a susceptible individual to quantify the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a community. We found that shortening by $$5\%$$ 5 % of the infectious period of SARS-CoV-2 can reduce around $$39\%$$ 39 % (or 78 K, $$95\%$$ 95 % CI: [66 K , 89 K ]) of the COVID-19 associated deaths in the US as of 20 September 2020. Our findings also indicate that reducing infection and deaths by a shortened infectious period is more pronounced for areas with the effective reproduction number close to 1, suggesting that testing should be used along with other mitigation measures, such as social distancing and facial mask-wearing, to reduce the transmission rate. Our deliverable includes a dynamic county-level map for local officials to determine optimal policy responses and for the public to better understand the risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 on each day.


Author(s):  
Maia Popova ◽  
Tamera Jones

Representational competence is one's ability to use disciplinary representations for learning, communicating, and problem-solving. These skills are at the heart of engagement in scientific practices and were recognized by the ACS Examinations Institute as one of ten anchoring concepts. Despite the important role that representational competence plays in student success in chemistry and the considerable number of investigations into students’ ability to reason with representations, very few studies have examined chemistry instructors’ approaches toward developing student representational competence. This study interviewed thirteen chemistry instructors from eleven different universities across the US about their intentions to develop, teach, and assess student representational competence skills. We found that most instructors do not aim to help students develop any representational competence skills. At the same time, participants’ descriptions of their instructional and assessment practices revealed that, without realizing it, most are likely to teach and assess several representational competence skills in their courses. A closer examination of these skills revealed a focus on lower-level representational competence skills (e.g., the ability to interpret and generate representations) and a lack of a focus on higher-level meta-representational competence skills (e.g., the ability to describe affordances and limitations of representations). Finally, some instructors reported self-awareness about their lack of knowledge about effective teaching about representations and the majority expressed a desire for professional development opportunities to learn about differences in how experts and novices conceptualize representations, about evidence-based practices for teaching about representations, and about how to assess student mastery of representational competence skills. This study holds clear implications for informing chemistry instructors’ professional development initiatives. Such training needs to help instructors take cognizance of relevant theories of learning (e.g., constructivism, dual-coding theory, information processing model, Johnstone's triangle), and the key factors affecting students’ ability to reason with representations, as well as foster awareness of representational competence skills and how to support students in learning with representations.


2021 ◽  
Vol 291 ◽  
pp. 05043
Author(s):  
Elena Oklirimeiiko ◽  
Sergey Chernov

The article deals with internal and external factors affecting the tourism industry in Russia as well as the ways of its promotion and development. The authors analyze decrease in sales in the tourism industry at the present period; the situation with provision of tourism services during the pandemic is identified and justified; the negative effects of the crisis are revealed. The authors also point out and present positive factors, which stimulate travel and tourism, including hotel business, catering, as well as resort business; the possibility of finding new ways to promote tourism industry is justified. The authors also analyze the main measures of tourism industry’s state support. The article considers dominant areas affecting the development of domestic tourism. The authors assess main aspects contributing to the development of event tourism. Conditions for the development of sports and event tourism are investigated and discussed; special features of tourism industry stimulation during the pandemic are presented. The authors consider and justify the possibility of restoring the tourist market.


2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Enita Rosmika

Tourism Product Knowledge is regarding the general knowledge of all regions in Indonesia which includes the location of the region / geography, climate, history, politics, culture, and particularly object - attractions and facilities and attractions which support it. In this study, entitled Factors Affecting Total tourist arrivals in Sumut Province Year Period 2014 -2019. The purpose of this study was to determine the number of rooms and the dollar exchange rate partially and simultaneously inuence the number of tourist arrivals in Sumut, in order to obtain a result the number of hotel rooms inuential not evident partially on the number of tourists visiting the province of Sumut, because t smaller than t table or -1.651 <1.761 while the dollar exchange rate has a signicant effect on the number of tourists visiting the province of Sumut, because t is greater than t table or 2.236> 1.740 and Total Room and the US dollar exchange rate simultaneously or together of the number of tourists visiting Sumut Province since F count> F table or 13.288> 3.59. The magnitude of the effect of independent variables on the dependent variable simultaneously can be known from the value of the coefcient of determination (R2) is equal to 0.639. This means that both variables jointly contribute to or inuence amounted to 63.9 percent of the number of tourists visiting the province of Sumut, while the remaining 36.1 percent is inuenced by other variables that are not described in the model, such as safety, service, facilities.


2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 289-307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael H Belzer

Researchers have studied truck crashes extensively using methods appropriate for behavior, technology, and regulatory enforcement. Few safety studies associate crashes with economic pressure, a pervasive latent influence. This study uses data from the US Large Truck Crash Causation Study to predict truck crashes based on work pressure factors that have their origins in market pressures on motor carriers and truck drivers. Logistic regression shows that factors associated with the work process, including an index of work-pressure attributes, predict the likelihood that crash analysts consider the truck driver to be the person whose last action could have prevented the crash. While not proving causation, the data suggest that economic factors affecting drivers contribute significantly to truck crashes.


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