scholarly journals Global cargo gravitation model: airports matter for forecasts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Baier ◽  
Peter Berster ◽  
Marc Gelhausen
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Sample Selection ◽  
Distance Effect ◽  
Gravity Models ◽  
Economic Forecast ◽  
Air Cargo ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Long Run

AbstractThe reliability of forecast models in the aviation sector is an important factor for industry and policy makers likewise. Expanding airports and fleets usually is a cost and time intensive process, and in order to maintain efficient market behavior, accurate anticipation of future demand and structural changes is attempted. We present a new quantitative approach to air cargo forecasts utilizing global airport-dyadic ICAO CASS data in general linearized airport fixed effects gravity models. While the strong explanatory power of our time invariant constant model has its natural difficulties predicting a variety of smaller indicators from previous models found in literature, we achieve very good results for selected time variant variables as gross domestic product per capita or kerosene prices. This makes our model a perfect tool for forecast simulations: extrapolating general economic forecast data provided by IHS Markit yield similar results to Boeing cargo forecasts (2020), with a slight decrease in the long run. Additionally, we do not need to split or control our sample in regional groups due to airport fixed effects, which makes the model on the other hand suitable for country- and airport level forecasts as well. The utilization of a large unique bilateral freight data set also helps answering classical gravity model questions in aviation: we track the distance effect to a matter of sample selection, finding no significant interaction following state of the art gravity econometrics.

Determinants of SME growth

2016 ◽  
Vol 39 (9) ◽  
pp. 966-986 ◽  
Author(s):  
Habib Kachlami ◽  
Darush Yazdanfar
Keyword(s):  
Random Effects ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the firm-level financial variables affecting the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Design/methodology/approach The study applies a resource-based view to analyze the firm-level as well as industry-level determinants of SME growth. Empirical evidence has also been provided from a data set of SMEs in Sweden to support the hypotheses. For a robust statistical analysis, three models – ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, random-effects regression and fixed-effects regression – are used to examine the influence of explanatory variables on growth. Findings The findings of this study show a positive and significant influence of profitability, short-term debt and size on a firm’s growth across all three models. Results regarding the influence of long-term debt on growth, however, are mixed. While the results of a fixed-effect model show the negative and significant influence of long-term debt on growth, the results according to OLS and random effects show long-term debt positively related to growth. Research limitations/implications This study has been conducted over a period of four years and in the context of Sweden which may limit the generalizability of its results for longer periods and for different contexts. Moreover, the low explanatory power of the models implies the need to also consider other types of variables, such as managerial or socio-economic variables, to better explain the determinants of SME growth. Practical implications Understanding the determinants of growth can be important for policy makers, SME managers and financial institutions. The findings of this study can be used for designing policies which stimulate SME growth. Realizing the financial resources that influence growth can also help SME managers and financial institutions to understand each other’s need for better cooperation. Originality/value This paper applies different models for analyzing large and cross-sectoral data regarding SME growth in the context of Sweden.

Child schooling in India: the role of gender

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Itismita Mohanty ◽  
ANU RAMMOHAN
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Sample Selection ◽  
Family Health ◽  
Large Sample Size ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Child Schooling ◽  
Years Of Schooling

Purpose – This paper aims to analyse factors that influence child schooling outcomes in India, specifically the role of gender. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses data from the nationally representative Indian National Family Health Surveys 1995-1996 and 2005-2006 and estimates Heckman sample selection, cluster fixed-effects and household fixed-effects econometric models. The dependent variables are the child’s enrolment status and conditional on enrolment child’s years of schooling. Findings – This analysis finds statistically significant evidence of male advantage both in schooling enrolment as well as years of schooling. However, using a cluster fixed-effects model, our analysis finds that within a village, conditional on being enrolled, girls spend more years in school relative to boys. Other results show that parental schooling has a positive and statistically significant impact on child schooling. There is statistically significant wealth effect, community effect and regional disparities between states in India. Originality/value – The large sample size and the range of questions available in this data set, allows us to explore the influence of individual, household and village level social, economic and cultural factors on child schooling. The role of gender on child schooling within a village, intrahousehold resource allocation for schooling and regional gender differences in schooling are important issues in India, where education outcomes remain poor for large segments of the population.

Foreign Direct Investment Inward and Foreign Direct Investment Outward: Evidence from Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Tests with a Certain Number of Structural Changes

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1850125
Author(s):  
Nicholas Apergis
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Panel Unit Root ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests

This article examines empirically the association between foreign direct investment inward and foreign direct investment outward. Using a panel data set for 35 economies over the period 1981-2004 as well as the methodology of panel unit root and panel cointegration tests with a certain number of structural changes, the empirical findings show that FDI inward does exhibit a significant (long-run) relationship with FDI outward.

What More Than Parental Income, Education and Occupation? An Exploration of What Swedish Siblings Get from Their Parents

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anders Björklund ◽  
Lena Lindahl ◽  
Matthew J. Lindquist
Keyword(s):  
Parenting Practices ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Parental Income ◽  
Socio Economic Status ◽  
Sibling Correlations ◽  
Community Influences ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Sibling correlations are broader measures of the impact of family and community influences on individual outcomes than intergenerational correlations. Estimates of such correlations in income show that more than half of the family and community influences that siblings share are uncorrelated with parental income. We employ a data set with rich family information to explore what factors in addition to traditional measures of parents’ socio-economic status can explain sibling similarity in long-run income. Measures of family structure and social problems account for very little of sibling similarities beyond that already accounted for by income, education and occupation. However, when we add indicators of parental involvement in schoolwork, parenting practices and maternal attitudes, the explanatory power of our variables increases from about one-quarter (using only traditional measures of parents’ socio-economic status) to nearly two-thirds.

scholarly journals Gender Segregation in Education: Evidence From Higher Secondary Stream Choice in India

Demography ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soham Sahoo ◽  
Stephan Klasen
Keyword(s):  
Gender Gap ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Unobserved Heterogeneity ◽  
Sample Selection ◽  
Gender Segregation ◽  
Gender Disparity ◽  
School Level ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Secondary Stream

Abstract This paper investigates gender-based segregation across different fields of study at the senior secondary level of schooling in a large developing country. We use a nationally representative longitudinal data set from India to analyze the extent and determinants of gender gap in higher secondary stream choice. Using fixed-effects regressions that control for unobserved heterogeneity at the regional and household levels, we find that girls are about 20 percentage points less likely than boys to study in science (STEM) and commerce streams as compared with humanities. This gender disparity is unlikely to be driven by gender-specific differences in cognitive ability, given that the gap remains large and significant even after we control for individuals' past test scores. We establish the robustness of these estimates through various sensitivity analyses: including sibling fixed effects, considering intrahousehold relationships among individuals, and addressing sample selection issues. Disaggregating the effect on separate streams, we find that girls are most underrepresented in the study of science. Our findings indicate that gender inequality in economic outcomes, such as occupational segregation and gender pay gaps, is determined by gendered trajectories set much earlier in the life course, especially at the school level.

Dynamic Relationship between Crude Oil and Stock Prices in India: Before And After the Subprime Financial Crisis 2008

GIS Business ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 96-104
Author(s):  
P. Sakthivel ◽  
S. Rajaswaminathan ◽  
R. Renuka ◽  
N. R.Vembu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Energy Index ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Before And After

This paper empirically discovered the inter-linkages between stock and crude oil prices before and after the subprime financial crisis 2008 by using Johansan co-integration and Granger causality techniques to explore both long and short- run relationships.  The whole data set of Nifty index, Nifty energy index, BSE Sensex, BSE energy index and oil prices are divided into two periods; before crisis (from February 15, 2005 to December31, 2007) and after crisis (from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2018) are collected and analyzed. The results discovered that there is one-way causal relationship from crude oil prices to Nifty index, Nifty energy index, BSE Sensex and BSE energy index but not other way around in both periods. However, a bidirectional causality relationship between BSE Energy index and crude oil prices during post subprime financial crisis 2008. The co-integration results suggested that the absence of long run relationship between crude oil prices and market indices of BSE Sensex, BSE energy index, Nifty index and Nifty energy index before and after subprime financial crisis 2008.

scholarly journals IPO’s Long-Run Performance: Hot Market versus Earnings Management

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 132
Author(s):  
Tsai-Yin Lin ◽  
Jerry Yu ◽  
Chia-Yi Lin
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Information Asymmetry ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Market Condition ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Hot Market

One of the IPO-related anomalies that have been well-discussed in the finance literature is the IPO’s long-running underperformance. Two of the major explanations of that phenomenon are: “Hot market” and earnings management. This study investigates the relative importance of these two explanations to the IPO’s long-run underperformance. Our results show that although both hot market and earnings management play a role in explaining IPO’s long-run performance in their own rights, earnings management no longer exhibits significant explanatory power when the IPOs are issued in the cold market. While the IPOs that are issued in the hot market still tend to underperform in the long run even if the firms do not engage in earnings management. Our findings are consistent with the literature related to the information asymmetry in IPO market. And, because the information asymmetry is more severe in hot market condition, IPOs issued in hot market tend to exhibit poorer returns than those issued in cold market.

scholarly journals Analysis of the New Kuznets Relationship: Considering Emissions of Carbon, Methanol, and Nitrous Oxide Greenhouse Gases—Evidence from EU Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 2907
Author(s):  
Mara Madaleno ◽  
Victor Moutinho
Keyword(s):  
Nitrous Oxide ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Ekc Hypothesis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Eu

Decreased greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are urgently needed in view of global health threat represented by climate change. The goal of this paper is to test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, considering less common measures of environmental burden. For that, four different estimations are done, one considering total GHG emissions, and three more taking into account, individually, the three main GHG gases—carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane gas (CH4)—considering the oldest and most recent economies adhering to the EU27 (the EU 15 (Old Europe) and the EU 12 (New Europe)) separately. Using panel dynamic fixed effects (DFE), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) techniques, we validate the existence of a U-shaped relationship for all emission proxies considered, and groups of countries in the short-run. Some evidence of this effect also exists in the long-run. However, we were only able to validate the EKC hypothesis for the short-run in EU 12 under DOLS and the short and long-run using FMOLS. Confirmed is the fact that results are sensitive to models and measures adopted. Externalization of problems globally takes a longer period for national policies to correct, turning global measures harder and local environmental proxies more suitable to deeply explore the EKC hypothesis.

scholarly journals A Reappraisal of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Using Wavelets Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 319
Author(s):  
Hany Fahmy
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Impact

The Prebisch-Singer (PS) hypothesis, which postulates the presence of a downward secular trend in the price of primary commodities relative to manufacturers, remains at the core of a continuing debate among international trade economists. The reason is that the results of testing the PS hypothesis depend on the starting point of the technical analysis, i.e., stationarity, nonlinearity, and the existence of structural breaks. The objective of this paper is to appraise the PS hypothesis in the short- and long-run by employing a novel multiresolution wavelets decomposition to a unique data set of commodity prices. The paper also seeks to assess the impact of the terms of trade (also known as Incoterms) on the test results. The analysis reveals that the PS hypothesis is not supported in the long run for the aggregate commodity price index and for most of the individual commodity price series forming it. Furthermore, in addition to the starting point of the analysis, the results show that the PS test depends on the term of trade classification of commodity prices. These findings are of particular significance to international trade regulators and policymakers of developing economies that depend mainly on primary commodities in their exports.

scholarly journals Mediating distributive politics: political alignment and electoral business cycle effects on municipality financing in Greece

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anastasios Kitsos ◽  
Antonios Proestakis
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Intergovernmental Transfers ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Resource Misallocation ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Political Alignment

AbstractWe examine the role of political alignment and the electoral business cycle on municipality revenues in Greece for the period 2003–2010. The misallocation of resources for political gain represents a waste of resources with significant negative effects on local growth and effective decentralization. The focus of our analysis is municipality mayors since they mediate the relationship between central government and voters and hence can influence the effectiveness of any potential pork-barrelling activity. A novel panel data set combining the results of two local and three national elections with annual municipality budgets is used to run a fixed-effects econometric model. This allows us to identify whether the political alignment between mayors and central government affects municipality financing. We examine this at different stages of local and national electoral cycles, investigating both direct intergovernmental transfers (grants) and the remaining sources of local revenues (own revenues, loans). We find that total revenues are significantly higher for aligned municipalities in the run-up to elections due to higher intergovernmental transfers. We also find evidence that the 2008 crisis has reduced such pork-barrelling activity. This significant resource misallocation increases vertical networking dependency and calls for policy changes promoting greater decentralization and encouraging innovation in local revenue raising.

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