scholarly journals Epidemiological modelling of the health and economic effects of COVID-19 control in Australia’s second wave

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Quentin Grafton ◽  
John Parslow ◽  
Tom Kompas ◽  
Kathryn Glass ◽  
Emily Banks
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Detection Strategies

Abstract Background We investigated the public health and economy outcomes of different levels of social distancing to control a ‘second wave’ outbreak in Australia and identify implications for public health management of COVID-19. Methods Individual-based and compartment models were used to simulate the effects of different social distancing and detection strategies on Australian COVID-19 infections and the economy from March to July 2020. These models were used to evaluate the effects of different social distancing levels and the early relaxation of suppression measures, in terms of public health and economy outcomes. Results The models, fitted to observations up to July 2020, yielded projections consistent with subsequent cases and showed that better public health outcomes and lower economy costs occur when social distancing measures are more stringent, implemented earlier and implemented for a sufficiently long duration. Early relaxation of suppression results in worse public health outcomes and higher economy costs. Conclusions Better public health outcomes (reduced COVID-19 fatalities) are positively associated with lower economy costs and higher levels of social distancing; achieving zero community transmission lowers both public health and economy costs compared to allowing community transmission to continue; and early relaxation of social distancing increases both public health and economy costs.

scholarly journals Health and economic effects of COVID-19 control in Australia: Modelling and quantifying the payoffs of hard versus soft lockdown

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quentin Grafton ◽  
Tom Kompas ◽  
John Parslow ◽  
Kathryn Glass ◽  
Emily Banks ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
High Quality Evidence ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Fit For Purpose ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Detection Strategies

Objective(s): Australia requires high quality evidence to optimise likely health and economy outcomes to effectively manage the current resurgence of COVID-19. We hypothesise that the most stringent social distancing (SD) measures (100% of level in Australia in April 2020) deliver better public health and economy outcomes. Design: Fit-for-purpose (individual-based and compartment) models were used to simulate the effects of different SD and detection strategies on Australian COVID-19 infections and the economy from March to July 2020. Public reported COVID-19 data were used to estimate model parameters. Main outcome measures: Public health and economy outcomes for multiple social distancing levels were evaluated, assessing hard versus soft lockdowns, and for early versus later relaxation of social distancing. Outcomes included costs and the timing and magnitude of observed COVID-19 cases and cumulative deaths in Australia from March to June 2020. Results: Higher levels of social distancing achieve zero community transmission with 100% probability and lower economy cost while low levels of social distancing result in uncontrolled outbreaks and higher economy costs. High social distancing total economy costs were $17.4B versus $41.2B for 0.7 social distancing. Early relaxation of suppression results in worse public health outcomes and higher economy costs. Conclusion(s): Better public health outcomes (reduced COVID-19 fatalities) are positively associated with lower economy costs and higher levels of social distancing; achieving zero community transmission lowers both public health and economy costs compared to allowing community transmission to continue; and early relaxation of social distancing increases both public health and economy costs.

scholarly journals The potential dangers of not understanding COVID-19 public health restrictions in dementia: “It’s a groundhog day – every single day she does not understand why she can’t go out for a walk”

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Clarissa Giebel ◽  
Kerry Hanna ◽  
Manoj Rajagopal ◽  
Aravind Komuravelli ◽  
Jacqueline Cannon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cognitive Deficits ◽  
Third Sector ◽  
Cognitive Capacity ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Third Sector Organisations ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Second Wave

Abstract Background Sudden public health restrictions can be difficult to comprehend for people with cognitive deficits. However, these are even more important for them to adhere to due to their increased levels of vulnerability, particularly to COVID-19. With a lack of previous evidence, we explored the understanding and changes in adherence to COVID-19 public health restrictions over time in people living with dementia (PLWD). Methods Unpaid carers and PLWD were interviewed over the phone in April 2020, shortly after the nationwide UK lockdown, with a proportion followed up from 24th June to 10th July. Participants were recruited via social care and third sector organisations across the UK, and via social media. Findings A total of 70 interviews (50 baseline, 20 follow-up) were completed with unpaid carers and PLWD. Five themes emerged: Confusion and limited comprehension; Frustration and burden; Putting oneself in danger; Adherence to restrictions in wider society; (Un) changed perceptions. Most carers reported limited to no understanding of the public health measures in PLWD, causing distress and frustration for both the carer and the PLWD. Due to the lack of understanding, some PLWD put themselves in dangerous situations without adhering to the restrictions. PLWD with cognitive capacity who participated understood the measures and adhered to these. Discussion In light of the new second wave of the pandemic, public health measures need to be simpler for PLWD to avoid unwilful non-adherence. Society also needs to be more adaptive to the needs of people with cognitive disabilities more widely, as blanket rules cause distress to the lives of those affected by dementia.

scholarly journals The effect of social distancing on the reach of an epidemic in social networks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Gutin ◽  
Tomohiro Hirano ◽  
Sung-Ha Hwang ◽  
Philip R. Neary ◽  
Alexis Akira Toda
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Social Networks ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
Simulation Results

AbstractHow does social distancing affect the reach of an epidemic in social networks? We present Monte Carlo simulation results of a susceptible–infected–removed with social distancing model. The key feature of the model is that individuals are limited in the number of acquaintances that they can interact with, thereby constraining disease transmission to an infectious subnetwork of the original social network. While increased social distancing typically reduces the spread of an infectious disease, the magnitude varies greatly depending on the topology of the network, indicating the need for policies that are network dependent. Our results also reveal the importance of coordinating policies at the ‘global’ level. In particular, the public health benefits from social distancing to a group (e.g. a country) may be completely undone if that group maintains connections with outside groups that are not following suit.

Will Nurses’ Work Still be Valued after the COVID-19 Pandemic?

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pasquot L ◽  
◽  
Giorgetta S ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Public Places ◽  
The Public ◽  
High Infection ◽  
A Minor ◽  
Second Wave

Many are the aspects we should ponder on, after 17 months from the burst of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially as nurses. Due to the numerous cuts to the public health sector in the last decades in Italy, the sanitary emergency has been a great sacrifice for health professionals, as public health was completely unprepared to withstand it. The Italian government reacted to this lack of preparation with exceptionally urgent measures. Although, these measures were implemented long after the initial state of confusion and of inappropriate management, they brought about stability and led to a containment strategy for the spread of the virus across the nation [1]. The reduction in the number of COVID-19 diagnoses was mainly achieved through social distancing. At first this was only required to a small number of communities affected by high infection rates, but was eventually extended to the rest of the country from March 2020 [2]. The national lockdown during the first COVID-19 wave (from March to May 2020), was replaced by regional lockdowns in the second wave (from November 2020). As of now, regional lockdowns are integrated by the vaccine campaign and Green Pass enforcement. In November 2020 the Italian Prime Minister at the time, issued legislative measures to enforce regional lockdowns, limiting nonessential movements, cafes, restaurants and other public places opening hours. This legislation established to classify the national territory in different levels of restriction based on the infection rate: red zones - highest risk of infection, orange zones - medium high risk and yellow zones with a minor risk of infection. A later legislation introduced the white zone for territories with the lowest risk of infection (DPCM-14th January 2021). The infection rate has been important to establish a region’s tier status; however, it is not the defining parameter anymore. A new legislation from July 2021 (n.105 - 23rd July 2021), opted to classify a region’s tier status according to the hospital bed’s occupancy rate for COVID-19 patients in intensive care and other medical areas.

Ideas on the Construction of an Automated System for the Determination of Hospital Morbidity for the Public Health Services in Bulgaria

1972 ◽  
Vol 11 (02) ◽  
pp. 87-90
Author(s):  
T. D. PEEVSKY ◽  
E. V. PETKOVA ◽  
B. P. BAYKUSHEV ◽  
A. P. VALOVA
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Detailed Analysis ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Automated System ◽  
Public Health Services ◽  
Computer Technique ◽  
The Public ◽  
Incoming Information ◽  
Hospital Morbidity

As an integral part in the planning for the Unified System of Social Information in Bulgaria, a system of public health management is envisaged. One of the basic subsystems is the automated system of management and account of hospital morbidity. Its construction is preceded by a detailed analysis of the organizational and informational structure. The parameters of the incoming information are described and some of the more fundamental tables produced by the system are shown. According to the character of the information contained in the tables, the periodicity of the data processing is determined and so are the levels of administration to which it is to be sent.We believe that, as a result of the processing of information by means of computer technique, the efficiency of management will improve on the basis of a detailed analysis of public health, the functioning and the medical activity of the health establishments.

scholarly journals MANAGEMENT OF INSTITUTIONAL AND PREVENTIVE ACTIVITIES IN THE PUBLIC HEALTH SYSTEM OF UKRAINE

2021 ◽  
Vol 74 (5) ◽  
pp. 1237-1240
Author(s):  
Iryna M. Khomenko ◽  
Oleksandra P. Ivakhno ◽  
Yaroslav V. Pershehuba ◽  
Ivan P. Kozyarin ◽  
Svitlana P. Koshova
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health System ◽  
Health Knowledge ◽  
Public Health System ◽  
Health Management ◽  
System Component ◽  
Preventive Program ◽  
The Public ◽  
System Establishment ◽  
Specialty Certification

The aim: Scientific justification of the public health management methods and instruments for improvement of its effectiveness. Materials and methods: The authors conducted a complex research of the public health of Ukraine personnel resources development during the system establishment and building. Conclusions: The paper justifies the competence-based model of a specialist (the postgraduate educational level) as well as the university educational standards of the first (bachelor) and second (master) levels of specialty 229 “Public health”, knowledge branch 22 “Healthcare”. The authors have established insufficient level of the youth motivation for obtaining the specialty certification and described disadvantages of both advocacy program within the public health system and its leadership within the preventive system component. The authors emphasize the necessity of an integrated preventive program maintaining and strengthening the population health, using the advocacy component and available information resources of the public health.

scholarly journals COVID-19 most vulnerable Mexican cities lack the public health infrastructure to face the pandemic: a new temporally-explicit model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wesley Dáttilo ◽  
Alcides Castro e Silva ◽  
Roger Guevara ◽  
Ian MacGregor Fors ◽  
Sérvio Pontes Ribeiro
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Transportation Network ◽  
Air Transportation ◽  
Explicit Model ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Health Infrastructure ◽  
Health Infrastructure

AbstractRecently, a wide array of epidemiological models have been developed to guide public health actors in containing the rapid dissemination of the new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), cause of COVID-19. Despite their usefulness, many epidemiological models recently developed to understand the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and infection rates of COVID-19 fall short as they ignore human mobility, limiting our understanding of the spread of the disease, together with the vulnerability of population centers in a broad scale. We developed a new temporally-explicit model and simulated several social distancing scenarios to predict the vulnerability to COVID-19 of 50 Mexican cities that are interconnected by their air transportation network. Additionally, we assessed the sufficiency of the public health infrastructure in the focal cities to face the pandemic over time. Based on our model, we show that the most important cities within the Mexican air transportation network are the most vulnerable to COVID-19, with all assessed public health infrastructure being insufficient to face the modeled scenario for the pandemic after 100 days. Despite these alarming findings, our results show that social distancing could dramatically decrease the total number of infected people (77% drop-off for the 45% distancing scenario when contrasted with no distancing), flattening the growth of infection rate. Thus, we consider that this study provides useful information that may help decision-makers to timely implement health policies to anticipate and lessen the impact of the current pandemic in Mexico.Significance StatementWe used a new temporally-explicit model focused on air transportation networks to predict the vulnerability of 50 focal Mexican cities to COVID-19. We found that most vulnerable cities lack of the required public health infrastructure (i.e., number of inpatient and intensive care unit beds) to face this new pandemic, overloading in all cases after 100 days. However, our results show that a 45% social distancing scenario can reduce the number of infected people by up to 78.7%, flattening the growth rate of people with COVID-19 before infection rates soar exponentially countrywide.

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