Evaluating a Simple Approach to Identify Adults Meeting the 2018 AHA/ACC Cholesterol Guideline Definition of Very High Risk for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

Background: In the 2018 AHA/ACC Cholesterol guideline, risk stratification is an essential element. The use of a Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) is recommended for individuals without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), and the new dichotomous classification of very high-risk vs. high-risk has been introduced for patients with ASCVD. These distinct risk stratification systems mainly rely on traditional risk factors, raising the possibility that a single model can predict major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in persons with and without ASCVD. Methods: We studied 11,335 ARIC participants with (n=885) and without (n=10,450) a history of ASCVD (myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and symptomatic peripheral artery disease) at baseline (1996-98). We modeled factors in the PCE and the new classification for ASCVD patients (Figure legend) in a single CVD prediction model. We examined their associations with MACEs (myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) using Cox models and evaluated the discrimination and calibration for a single model including those factors. Results: During a median follow-up of 18.4 years, there were 3,658 MACEs (3,105 in participants without ASCVD). In general, the factors in the PCE and the risk classification system for ASCVD patients were associated similarly with MACEs regardless of baseline ASCVD status, although age and systolic blood pressure showed significant interactions. A single model with these predictors and the relevant interaction terms showed good calibration and discrimination for those with and without ASCVD (c-statistic=0.729 and 0.704, respectively) (Figure). Conclusion: A single CVD prediction model performed well in persons with and without ASCVD. This approach will provide a specific predicted risk to ASCVD patients (instead of dichotomy of very high vs. high risk) and eliminate a practice gap between primary vs. secondary prevention due to different risk prediction tools.

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Recurrent Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Event Rates Differ Among Patients Meeting the Very High Risk Definition According to Age, Sex, Race/Ethnicity, and Socioeconomic Status

Journal of the American Heart Association ◽

10.1161/jaha.120.017310 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (23) ◽

Author(s):

Jaejin An ◽

Yiyi Zhang ◽

Paul Muntner ◽

Andrew E. Moran ◽

Jin‐Wen Hsu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Socioeconomic Status ◽

High Risk ◽

Sociodemographic Factors ◽

Study Cohort ◽

Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease ◽

Annual Household Income ◽

History Of ◽

Race Ethnicity ◽

Definition Of ◽

Very High

Background The risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events may differ by sociodemographic factors among patients meeting the definition of very high risk according to the 2018 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology cholesterol guideline, leading to treatment disparities. We estimated the risk for recurrent ASCVD events among adults meeting the definition of very high risk by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status in a US integrated healthcare system. Methods and Results The study cohort included Kaiser Permanente Southern California members aged ≥21 years with a history of clinical ASCVD on September 30, 2009. Very high risk for recurrent ASCVD was defined by a history of ≥2 major ASCVD events or a history of 1 major event along with ≥2 high‐risk conditions. Patients were followed through 2015 for a first recurrent ASCVD event. Of 77 101 patients with ASCVD, 50.8% met the definition for very high risk. Among patients meeting the definition of very high risk, recurrent ASCVD rates were higher in older (>75 years) versus younger patients (21–40 years) (sex‐adjusted hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI] 1.85; 1.23–2.79), non‐Hispanic Black patients versus non‐Hispanic White patients (age‐, sex‐adjusted HR, 1.32; 1.23–1.41), those who lived in neighborhoods with lower (<$35k) versus higher annual household income (≥$80k) (HR, 1.20; 1.11–1.30), or with lower (≥31.2%) versus higher education levels (<8.8% high school or lower) (HR, 1.26; 1.19–1.34). Conclusions Disparities in the risk for recurrent ASCVD events were present across sociodemographic factors among very high risk patients. The addition of sociodemographic factors to current definitions of very high risk could reduce health disparities.

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