Abstract P019: A Single Model For Predicting Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events In Individuals With And Without History Of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: The Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities (aric) Study

Circulation ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 143 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yejin Mok ◽  
Lena Mathews ◽  
Ron C Hoogeveen ◽  
Michael J Blaha ◽  
Christie M Ballantyne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Single Model ◽  
History Of ◽  
Very High

Background: In the 2018 AHA/ACC Cholesterol guideline, risk stratification is an essential element. The use of a Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) is recommended for individuals without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), and the new dichotomous classification of very high-risk vs. high-risk has been introduced for patients with ASCVD. These distinct risk stratification systems mainly rely on traditional risk factors, raising the possibility that a single model can predict major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in persons with and without ASCVD. Methods: We studied 11,335 ARIC participants with (n=885) and without (n=10,450) a history of ASCVD (myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and symptomatic peripheral artery disease) at baseline (1996-98). We modeled factors in the PCE and the new classification for ASCVD patients (Figure legend) in a single CVD prediction model. We examined their associations with MACEs (myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) using Cox models and evaluated the discrimination and calibration for a single model including those factors. Results: During a median follow-up of 18.4 years, there were 3,658 MACEs (3,105 in participants without ASCVD). In general, the factors in the PCE and the risk classification system for ASCVD patients were associated similarly with MACEs regardless of baseline ASCVD status, although age and systolic blood pressure showed significant interactions. A single model with these predictors and the relevant interaction terms showed good calibration and discrimination for those with and without ASCVD (c-statistic=0.729 and 0.704, respectively) (Figure). Conclusion: A single CVD prediction model performed well in persons with and without ASCVD. This approach will provide a specific predicted risk to ASCVD patients (instead of dichotomy of very high vs. high risk) and eliminate a practice gap between primary vs. secondary prevention due to different risk prediction tools.

OP340 Adverse Clinical Events And Associated Risk Factors In Patients With Very-High-Risk Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (S1) ◽  
pp. 6-6
Author(s):  
Boya Zhao ◽  
Xiaoning He ◽  
Jia Zhao ◽  
Jing Wu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Clinical Events ◽  
History Of ◽  
Associated Risk Factors ◽  
Very High

IntroductionClinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) patients are judged to be very-high-risk if they had a history of multiple major ASCVD events, or one major ASCVD event with multiple high-risk conditions. Very-high-risk ASCVD patients are under high risk of adverse clinical events and need more attention in the management of secondary prevention. This real-world study aimed at estimating the prevalence of very-high-risk ASCVD and investigating the occurrence of adverse clinical events and associated risk factors among patients with very-high-risk ASCVD in China.MethodsData were obtained from the Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance database in Tianjin, China. Very-high-risk ASCVD patients were identified from 2014 to 2015 through the history of ASCVD events and evidence of high-risk conditions, and followed for 24 months. Adverse clinical events were measured by major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), a composite endpoint of stroke, myocardial infarction (MI) and death. A Cox regression model was used to identify risk factors of MACE, adjusting for potential confounders.ResultsThe percentage of clinical ASCVD patients identified as very-high-risk was 35.2 (N = 41,181), while 34,740 patients with continuous enrollment were included (mean age: 67.1 years; 42.5% female). The percentage of patients who had MACE in the 24-month follow-up period was 27.7, with stroke (22.3%) as the most prevalent event followed by death (6.9%) and MI (1.3%). Male gender, older age, and having MI or ischemic stroke (versus unstable angina) as the index major ASCVD event were risk predictors of MACE.ConclusionsMore than one-third of patients with clinical ASCVD are under very-high-risk in China, and among them 27.7 percent experience MACE during a 24-month follow-up period. Male patients, older patients, and patients who had MI or ischemic stroke are under higher risk of experiencing MACE. Future studies are warranted for comparing the differences in characteristics, pattern of drug use, occurrence of adverse clinical events and medical burden between very-high-risk ASCVD patients and ASCVD patients not at very-high-risk.

scholarly journals Risk for recurrent cardiovascular disease events among patients with diabetes and chronic kidney disease

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Demetria Hubbard ◽  
Lisandro D. Colantonio ◽  
Robert S. Rosenson ◽  
Todd M. Brown ◽  
Elizabeth A. Jackson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Health Insurance ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Peripheral Artery ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Patients With Diabetes ◽  
Very High

Abstract Background Adults who have experienced multiple cardiovascular disease (CVD) events have a very high risk for additional events. Diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are each associated with an increased risk for recurrent CVD events following a myocardial infarction (MI). Methods We compared the risk for recurrent CVD events among US adults with health insurance who were hospitalized for an MI between 2014 and 2017 and had (1) CVD prior to their MI but were free from diabetes or CKD (prior CVD), and those without CVD prior to their MI who had (2) diabetes only, (3) CKD only and (4) both diabetes and CKD. We followed patients from hospital discharge through December 31, 2018 for recurrent CVD events including coronary, stroke, and peripheral artery events. Results Among 162,730 patients, 55.2% had prior CVD, and 28.3%, 8.3%, and 8.2% had diabetes only, CKD only, and both diabetes and CKD, respectively. The rate for recurrent CVD events per 1000 person-years was 135 among patients with prior CVD and 110, 124 and 171 among those with diabetes only, CKD only and both diabetes and CKD, respectively. Compared to patients with prior CVD, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for recurrent CVD events was 0.92 (95%CI 0.90–0.95), 0.89 (95%CI: 0.85–0.93), and 1.18 (95%CI: 1.14–1.22) among those with diabetes only, CKD only, and both diabetes and CKD, respectively. Conclusion Following MI, adults with both diabetes and CKD had a higher risk for recurrent CVD events compared to those with prior CVD without diabetes or CKD.

The Impact of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk on Graft Failure in Deceased-Donor Renal Transplantation

2021 ◽  
pp. 152692482110246
Author(s):  
Grace Hsu ◽  
Tracy M. Sparkes ◽  
Brent N. Reed ◽  
Stormi E. Gale ◽  
Brian E. Crossley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Renal Transplant ◽  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Graft Failure ◽  
Deceased Donor ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

Introduction: Pretransplant cardiovascular risk may be amplified after renal transplant, but little is known about its impact on graft outcomes. Research question: The purpose of this study was to determine if pretransplant cardiovascular risk was associated with graft outcomes. Design: This retrospective study included deceased-donor renal transplant recipients from 2010-2015. Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk for patients without prior disease was calculated and patients were categorized into high (score >20%), intermediate (7.5-20%), and low risk (<7.5%). Patients with and without prior cardiovascular disease were also compared. The main endpoint was graft failure at 3-years post-transplant. Other outcomes included major adverse cardiovascular events, biopsy-proven rejection, and mortality. Results: In patients without prior atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (N = 115), graft failure rates (4.5% vs 11.3% vs 12.5%; ( P = 0.64) and major adverse cardiovascular events (9.1% vs 13.2% vs 5.0%; P = 0.52) were similar in the high, intermediate, and low risk groups. In those with prior disease (N = 220), rates of primary nonfunction (6.8% vs 1.7%; P = 0.04), major adverse cardiovascular events (7.3% vs 2.6%; P = 0.01), and heart failure (10.9% vs 3.5%; P = 0.02) were higher than those without cardiovascular; rates of major adverse cardiovascular events and heart failure were insignificant after adjusting for age, gender, and race. Other outcomes were not different. Outcomes did not differ based on pretransplant cardiovascular risk. Discussion: Pretransplant atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was associated with increased early graft failure but similar outcomes at 3-years, suggesting cardiac risk alone should not exclude transplantation.

scholarly journals Trimethylamine N-oxide and incident atherosclerotic events in high-risk individuals with diabetes: an ACCORD trial post hoc analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. e000718 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Cardona ◽  
Aaron O'Brien ◽  
Matthew C Bernier ◽  
Arpad Somogyi ◽  
Vicki H Wysocki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Antihypertensive Medications ◽  
Ascvd Risk ◽  
Post Hoc ◽  
Design And Methods

IntroductionType 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) confers high atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. The metabolite trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) derived via gut flora has been linked to excess ASCVD.Research design and methodsWe analyzed data, biospecimens, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) from the prospective multicenter randomized Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial to assess its value in 330 high-risk individuals with T2D without evident atherosclerotic disease at enrollment.ResultsIncident cardiovascular events occurred in 165 cases; 165 controls matched by age, sex, and treatment arm experienced no incident events during follow-up. Cases and controls (mean age 64.5 years) had similar mean glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) (8.2%) and mean 10-year ASCVD risk (23.5%); groups also had similar use of statins and antihypertensive medications at baseline and follow-up. Baseline plasma TMAO levels did not differ between groups after adjusting for ASCVD risk score, HbA1c, and estimated glomerular filtration rate, nor did TMAO distinguish patients suffering incident MACE from those who remained event-free.ConclusionsTMAO’s prognostic value for incident ASCVD events may be blunted when applied to individuals with T2D with poor glycemic control and high baseline ASCVD risk. These results behoove further translational investigations of unique mechanisms of ASCVD risk in T2D.

scholarly journals Heterogeneity of antidiabetic treatment effect on the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elvira D’Andrea ◽  
Aaron S. Kesselheim ◽  
Jessica M. Franklin ◽  
Emily H. Jung ◽  
Spencer Phillips Hey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Type 2 Diabetes ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Treatment Effect ◽  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Uncontrolled Diabetes ◽  
History Of

Abstract Background We explored whether clinically relevant baseline characteristics of patients with type 2 diabetes can modify the effect of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA) or sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2i) on the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Methods We investigated Medline and EMBASE through June 2019. We included randomized clinical trials reporting the effect of GLP-1 RA or SGLT-2i on MACE in subgroups of patients with type 2 diabetes, identified through key baseline factors: established cardiovascular disease; heart failure; chronic kidney disease; uncontrolled diabetes; duration of diabetes; hypertension; obesity; age; gender and race. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from trials were meta-analyzed using random-effects models. Results Ten trials enrolling 89,790 patients were included in the analyses. Subgroup meta-analyses showed a 14% risk reduction of MACE in patients with established cardiovascular disease [GLP1-RA: HR, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.80–0.93); SGLT-2i: 0.86 (0.80–0.93)], and no effect in at-risk patients without history of cardiovascular events [GLP1-RA: 0.94 (0.82–1.07); SGLT-2i: 1.00 (0.87–1.16)]. We observed a trend toward larger treatment benefits with SGLT-2i among patients with chronic kidney disease [0.82 (0.69–0.97)], and patients with uncontrolled diabetes for both GLP1-RA or SGLT-2i [GLP1-RA: 0.82 (0.71–0.95); SGLT-2i: 0.84 (0.75–0.95)]. Uncontrolled hypertension, obesity, gender, age and race did not appear to modify the effect of these drugs. Conclusions In this exploratory analysis, history of cardiovascular disease appeared to modify the treatment effect of SGLT2i or GLP1-RA on MACE. Chronic kidney disease and uncontrolled diabetes should be further investigated as potential effect modifiers.

scholarly journals Antidepressant Use and the Risk of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients Without Known Cardiovascular Disease: A Retrospective Cohort Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ha Young Jang ◽  
Jae Hyun Kim ◽  
Yun-Kyoung Song ◽  
Ju-Young Shin ◽  
Hae-Young Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Hazard Ratios ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
History Of ◽  
Antidepressant Use ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression

Aims: Conflicting data exist on whether an association exists between antidepressants and the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with depression. This may be due to the use of various study designs and residual or unmeasured confounding. We aimed to assess the association between antidepressant use and the risk of MACEs while considering various covariates, including severity of depression and the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk score.Methods: Patients newly diagnosed with depression with no history of ischemic heart disease and stroke were followed-up from 2009 to 2015. We conducted Cox proportional hazard regression analysis to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for each antidepressant for MACE risk.Result: We followed-up (median, 4.4 years) 31,830 matched patients with depression (15,915 antidepressant users and 15,915 non-users). In most patients (98.7%), low-dose tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs) were related with a significantly increased risk of MACEs [adjusted HR = 1.20, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.03–1.40]. Duration response relationship showed a gradually increasing HR from 1.15 (95% CI = 0.98–1.33; &lt;30 days of use) to 1.84 (95% CI = 1.35–2.51; ≥365 days of use) (p for trend &lt;0.01). High Korean atherosclerotic CVD risk score (≥7.5%) or unfavorable lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol intake, and exercise) were significantly associated with MACEs.Conclusion: Even at low doses, TCA use was associated with MACEs during primary prevention. Longer duration of TCA use correlated with higher HR. Careful monitoring is needed with TCA use in patients with no known CVD history.

scholarly journals Recurrent Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Event Rates Differ Among Patients Meeting the Very High Risk Definition According to Age, Sex, Race/Ethnicity, and Socioeconomic Status

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (23) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaejin An ◽  
Yiyi Zhang ◽  
Paul Muntner ◽  
Andrew E. Moran ◽  
Jin‐Wen Hsu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Status ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Sociodemographic Factors ◽  
Study Cohort ◽  
Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Annual Household Income ◽  
History Of ◽  
Race Ethnicity ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Very High

Background The risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events may differ by sociodemographic factors among patients meeting the definition of very high risk according to the 2018 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology cholesterol guideline, leading to treatment disparities. We estimated the risk for recurrent ASCVD events among adults meeting the definition of very high risk by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status in a US integrated healthcare system. Methods and Results The study cohort included Kaiser Permanente Southern California members aged ≥21 years with a history of clinical ASCVD on September 30, 2009. Very high risk for recurrent ASCVD was defined by a history of ≥2 major ASCVD events or a history of 1 major event along with ≥2 high‐risk conditions. Patients were followed through 2015 for a first recurrent ASCVD event. Of 77 101 patients with ASCVD, 50.8% met the definition for very high risk. Among patients meeting the definition of very high risk, recurrent ASCVD rates were higher in older (>75 years) versus younger patients (21–40 years) (sex‐adjusted hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI] 1.85; 1.23–2.79), non‐Hispanic Black patients versus non‐Hispanic White patients (age‐, sex‐adjusted HR, 1.32; 1.23–1.41), those who lived in neighborhoods with lower (<$35k) versus higher annual household income (≥$80k) (HR, 1.20; 1.11–1.30), or with lower (≥31.2%) versus higher education levels (<8.8% high school or lower) (HR, 1.26; 1.19–1.34). Conclusions Disparities in the risk for recurrent ASCVD events were present across sociodemographic factors among very high risk patients. The addition of sociodemographic factors to current definitions of very high risk could reduce health disparities.

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