scholarly journals Recurrent Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Event Rates Differ Among Patients Meeting the Very High Risk Definition According to Age, Sex, Race/Ethnicity, and Socioeconomic Status

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (23) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaejin An ◽  
Yiyi Zhang ◽  
Paul Muntner ◽  
Andrew E. Moran ◽  
Jin‐Wen Hsu ◽  
...  

Background The risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events may differ by sociodemographic factors among patients meeting the definition of very high risk according to the 2018 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology cholesterol guideline, leading to treatment disparities. We estimated the risk for recurrent ASCVD events among adults meeting the definition of very high risk by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status in a US integrated healthcare system. Methods and Results The study cohort included Kaiser Permanente Southern California members aged ≥21 years with a history of clinical ASCVD on September 30, 2009. Very high risk for recurrent ASCVD was defined by a history of ≥2 major ASCVD events or a history of 1 major event along with ≥2 high‐risk conditions. Patients were followed through 2015 for a first recurrent ASCVD event. Of 77 101 patients with ASCVD, 50.8% met the definition for very high risk. Among patients meeting the definition of very high risk, recurrent ASCVD rates were higher in older (>75 years) versus younger patients (21–40 years) (sex‐adjusted hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI] 1.85; 1.23–2.79), non‐Hispanic Black patients versus non‐Hispanic White patients (age‐, sex‐adjusted HR, 1.32; 1.23–1.41), those who lived in neighborhoods with lower (<$35k) versus higher annual household income (≥$80k) (HR, 1.20; 1.11–1.30), or with lower (≥31.2%) versus higher education levels (<8.8% high school or lower) (HR, 1.26; 1.19–1.34). Conclusions Disparities in the risk for recurrent ASCVD events were present across sociodemographic factors among very high risk patients. The addition of sociodemographic factors to current definitions of very high risk could reduce health disparities.

Circulation ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 143 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yejin Mok ◽  
Lena Mathews ◽  
Ron C Hoogeveen ◽  
Michael J Blaha ◽  
Christie M Ballantyne ◽  
...  

Background: In the 2018 AHA/ACC Cholesterol guideline, risk stratification is an essential element. The use of a Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) is recommended for individuals without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), and the new dichotomous classification of very high-risk vs. high-risk has been introduced for patients with ASCVD. These distinct risk stratification systems mainly rely on traditional risk factors, raising the possibility that a single model can predict major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in persons with and without ASCVD. Methods: We studied 11,335 ARIC participants with (n=885) and without (n=10,450) a history of ASCVD (myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and symptomatic peripheral artery disease) at baseline (1996-98). We modeled factors in the PCE and the new classification for ASCVD patients (Figure legend) in a single CVD prediction model. We examined their associations with MACEs (myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) using Cox models and evaluated the discrimination and calibration for a single model including those factors. Results: During a median follow-up of 18.4 years, there were 3,658 MACEs (3,105 in participants without ASCVD). In general, the factors in the PCE and the risk classification system for ASCVD patients were associated similarly with MACEs regardless of baseline ASCVD status, although age and systolic blood pressure showed significant interactions. A single model with these predictors and the relevant interaction terms showed good calibration and discrimination for those with and without ASCVD (c-statistic=0.729 and 0.704, respectively) (Figure). Conclusion: A single CVD prediction model performed well in persons with and without ASCVD. This approach will provide a specific predicted risk to ASCVD patients (instead of dichotomy of very high vs. high risk) and eliminate a practice gap between primary vs. secondary prevention due to different risk prediction tools.


Author(s):  
Boya Zhao ◽  
Xiaoning He ◽  
Jia Zhao ◽  
Jing Wu

IntroductionClinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) patients are judged to be very-high-risk if they had a history of multiple major ASCVD events, or one major ASCVD event with multiple high-risk conditions. Very-high-risk ASCVD patients are under high risk of adverse clinical events and need more attention in the management of secondary prevention. This real-world study aimed at estimating the prevalence of very-high-risk ASCVD and investigating the occurrence of adverse clinical events and associated risk factors among patients with very-high-risk ASCVD in China.MethodsData were obtained from the Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance database in Tianjin, China. Very-high-risk ASCVD patients were identified from 2014 to 2015 through the history of ASCVD events and evidence of high-risk conditions, and followed for 24 months. Adverse clinical events were measured by major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), a composite endpoint of stroke, myocardial infarction (MI) and death. A Cox regression model was used to identify risk factors of MACE, adjusting for potential confounders.ResultsThe percentage of clinical ASCVD patients identified as very-high-risk was 35.2 (N = 41,181), while 34,740 patients with continuous enrollment were included (mean age: 67.1 years; 42.5% female). The percentage of patients who had MACE in the 24-month follow-up period was 27.7, with stroke (22.3%) as the most prevalent event followed by death (6.9%) and MI (1.3%). Male gender, older age, and having MI or ischemic stroke (versus unstable angina) as the index major ASCVD event were risk predictors of MACE.ConclusionsMore than one-third of patients with clinical ASCVD are under very-high-risk in China, and among them 27.7 percent experience MACE during a 24-month follow-up period. Male patients, older patients, and patients who had MI or ischemic stroke are under higher risk of experiencing MACE. Future studies are warranted for comparing the differences in characteristics, pattern of drug use, occurrence of adverse clinical events and medical burden between very-high-risk ASCVD patients and ASCVD patients not at very-high-risk.


Blood ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 120 (21) ◽  
pp. 598-598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Moreau ◽  
Lucie Planche ◽  
Michel Attal ◽  
Cyrille Hulin ◽  
Thierry Facon ◽  
...  

Abstract Abstract 598 Background: Several biological parameters have been described, which define patients with multiple myeloma with a high-risk of progression. Nevertheless, apart from the International Staging System (ISS), no clear, simple and reliable prognostic index has yet been identified, especially for the classification of patients with very high-risk disease. We aimed to characterize the group of patients who have a high risk of early death from progression in the context of frontline therapy using novel agents-based induction therapy and autologous stem cell transplantation. Methods: We investigated prognostic parameters of patients enrolled in the IFM2005-01 trial, which compared bortezomib-dexamethasone versus VAD induction followed by ASCT (Harousseau et al, J Clin Oncol 2010;28:4621–4629). Results: In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, the risk of death from progressive disease (and not toxicity) (42 cases out of 482 patients) within the first 2 years from the start of therapy was related to 3 independent adverse baseline characteristics: high LDH > normal value (p = 0.0014), ISS 3 (p = 0.0097) and cytogenetic abnormalities defined by the presence of either t(4;14) or 17p deletion (p = 0.0002). These 3 variables enabled the definition of a simple scoring system consisting of 4 categories (scores 0–3) that predicts for overall survival (OS). Score 0 was defined by the absence of adverse factors (neither high LDH, nor ISS 3, nor t(4;14) and/or del(17p)); in this group of patients, representing 57% of the overall population, the 4-year OS rate was 84%. A score of 1 was defined by the presence of only 1 adverse factor (either high LDH or ISS 3 or t(4;14) and/or del(17p)). The 4-year OS rate in this group of patients (32% of the overall population) was 73%. A score of 2 defined by the presence of high LDH plus ISS 3 in the absence of t(4;14) and/or del(17p), was found in 6% of the overall population. The 4-year OS rate in this group was 68%. Score 3 was defined by the presence of t(4;14) and/or del(17p) in addition to either ISS 3 or high LDH. In this group of patients, representing 5% of the overall population, the median OS was only 19 months (Figure). Conclusion: We have defined a new and simple scoring system that allows the identification of a small group of patients with very high-risk disease and a shortened survival despite the use of intensive novel agents-based therapy. These preliminary findings require confirmation using data from a large number of patients enrolled in the most recent prospective clinical trials investigating triplet induction regimens prior to ASCT. The subgroup of patients with a score of 3, which is associated with a detrimental outcome, might benefit from innovative therapeutic approaches. Disclosures: Moreau: janssen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; millenium: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; celgene: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Attal:janssen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; celgene: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Hulin:janssen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; celgene: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Facon:millenium: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; janssen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; celgene: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; onyx: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Kolb:celgene: Honoraria; janssen: Honoraria. Roussel:janssen: Honoraria; celgene: Honoraria. Leleu:celgene: Honoraria; janssen: Honoraria. Avet-Loiseau:janssen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; celgene: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees.


Blood ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 122 (21) ◽  
pp. 2726-2726 ◽  
Author(s):  
Delphine Rea ◽  
Tristan Mirault ◽  
Emmanuel Raffoux ◽  
Jean-Michel Miclea ◽  
Philippe Rousselot ◽  
...  

Background Nilotinib is approved for use in pts with CML after failure of imatinib and in newly diagnosed CP-CML. However, several studies report a nilotinib-associated risk of AOE, especially in pts with preexisting risk factors for CVD. Since CVD are a major cause of disability and death worldwide and result from complex interactions between multiple risk factors, we aimed at determining whether CVD risk estimation using the 2012 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) classification could be useful to identify patients at high risk of AOE during nilotinib therapy. Methods Pts (n=75) treated with nilotinib upfront or after failure of prior TKI at our institution were included provided that baseline risk factors for CVD and prior history of established CVD could be retrospectively collected. Risk factors included age, tobacco use, diabetes mellitus (DM), arterial hypertension (AH), dyslipidemia and increased body mass index (BMI). Patients were categorized into 2 groups according to ESC 2012 classification: low/moderate (L/M) and high/very high (H/VH) CVD risk. H/VH included pts with any of the following: established CVD, DM, severe AH, familial dysplipidemia or a SCORE (systematic coronary risk evaluation project) ≥5%. Results At nilotinib initiation, median age was 51 years (19-76), 41 pts (54.7%) were males. Nilotinib was given upfront in 28 pts (37%) and after failure of imatinib or dasatinib following imatinib in 47 pts (63%). Median time from diagnosis was 1 month (0.3-4) in the former group and 25 months (2-130) in the latter. Median duration of TKI exposure prior to nilotinib in the latter group was 22 months (0.4-91). Initial nilotinib dosing regimen was 400mg BID in 42 pts (56%) and 300mg BID in 33 pts (44%). Median duration of nilotinib treatment of 28 months (3-76) and median follow-up was 30 months (3-77). At baseline, medical history revealed H/VH risk category in 15 pts (20%) including established CVD in 6 pts (8%) (all diagnosed before CML), DM in 10 pts (13.3%), severe AH in 1 pt (1.3%), familial dyslipidemia in 1 pt (1.3%) and a SCORE ≥5% in 2 pts (2.6%). Median number of CVD risk factors was 1 (0-6) including age ≥ 45 years in men and ≥ 55 years in women in 37 pts (49.3%), active smoking or ceased during the previous year in 12 pts (16.7%), DM in 10 pts (13.3%), AH in 14 pts (18.7%), dyslipidemia in 10 pts (13.3%) and BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2in 20 pts (38.6). Nilotinib was discontinued in 23 pts (30.7%) due to adverse events (10 pts), resistance (7 pts), TKI discontinuation study (4 pts) or death (2 pts). AOE occurred in 12 pts after a median duration of nilotinib treatment of 24 months (9-47). AOE included myocardial infarction (MI) or coronary heart disease (CHD) (n=3), cerebrovascular events (CeVD) (n=3) and peripheral artery disease (PAD) (n=6). Overall, the cumulative incidence of AOE was 2.91% (95% CI: 0.74-11.42) by 12 months, 9.81% (95% CI: 4.57-21.08) by 24 months, 19.29 (95% CI: 10.77-34.56) by 36 months and 27.7% (95% CI: 16.2-47.35) by 48 months (discontinuation of nilotinib and death as competing risks). Cumulative incidence of AOE by 48 months was 72.22% (95% CI: 47.46-100) in the H/VH group and only 12.13% (95% CI: 4.32-34.08) in the L/M group. Log Rank comparison of Kaplan Meier analysis of 48-month survival without AOE showed a significant difference between the 2 groups (27.78% (95% CI: 0-58.9) versus 84.38% (95% CI: 67.04-100) p=0.0001). Sensitivity of the ESC classification in nilotinib-treated patients was 67% and specificity 89%. It is important to note that all pts with a history of AOE had recurrent AOE on nilotinib. Nilotinib was discontinued in 11 pts with AOE after a median time of 288 days (1-688), 7 pts had recurrent or worsening AOE before nilotinib discontinuation and 2 pts died from AOE. Conclusions In our retrospective study, CVD risk estimation according to the 2012 ESC classification reveals that pts who belong to the H/VH risk group at baseline are at very high risk of AOE during nilotinib therapy. These findings now need to be validated in a prospective fashion. Nevertheless, we readily recommend that assessment of CVD risk should be performed in all pts considered for nilotinib therapy. Alternative TKI may be chosen whenever possible in pts at H/VH risk of CVD. In those treated with nilotinib, CVD risk should be reassessed throughout therapy and risk factors should be tightly controlled according to current guidelines. Disclosures: Rea: BMS: Honoraria; Novartis: Honoraria; Pfizer: Honoraria; ARIAD: Honoraria; Teva: Honoraria. Messas:Novartis: Honoraria.


2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
B Thomas ◽  
P Piron ◽  
E de La Rochebrochard ◽  
C Segouin ◽  
P Troude

Abstract Background HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly effective but depends on patients' adherence and follow-up. To enhance follow-up quality and care engagement, the PrEP program developed in our Parisian sexual health center offers accompanying measures throughout the patients' course of care, relying notably on an identified and easily accessible referent. This trained paramedic counselor in sexual health provides support in organizing appointments, phone and email follow-up to answer daily questions, as well as one-on-one sessions of therapeutic support and counseling. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of such a PrEP program among men who have sex with men (MSM). Methods This retrospective observational study included all MSM who initiated PrEP for the first time between 1 August 2018 and 30 June 2019 in the Fernand-Widal hospital sexual health center, Paris, France. Sociodemographic characteristics, sexual practices including very high risk situations (chemsex practice and/or sexually transmitted diseases at initiation and/or history of post-exposure prophylaxis [PEP]) and course of care during the first year were described. A novel metric developed by Hendrickson et al., the PrEP success ratio at 12 months, was used to assess effectiveness of PrEP. Results Among the 125 MSM included in this study, the median age was 33 and most had only male partners. At initiation, 58% were considered at very high risk of HIV infection, mainly due to a history of PEP. During the first year, patients attended a median of 3 visits (Q1-Q3, 2-4). At 12 months, 96% (95% CI, 92.6 to 99.4) of patients had a successful PrEP course, with no reported seroconversion. Conclusions This experiment highlights the possibility of achieving a high PrEP success ratio among MSM in a real-world setting. The accompanying measures set up in our sexual health center could explain the effectiveness of our PrEP program in comparison with previous studies. Key messages In a Parisian sexual health center that developed an HIV PrEP program with a trained paramedic counselor in sexual health, 96% of MSM achieved a successful PrEP course at 12 months. Accompanying measures for PrEP users could play a key role in achieving high PrEP success among MSM.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hsin-Fang Li

Background: In the 2018 AHA/ACC Blood Cholesterol Guideline, it is recommended that ASCVD patients be classified as very high-risk (VHR) vs not-VHR (NVHR) to guide treatment decisions. This has important implications for ezetimibe and PCSK9 inhibitor eligibility. We aimed to develop a tool that could assist in more easily identifying VHR patients based on machine learning (ML) techniques. This approach offers a powerful, assumption-free alternative to conventional methods, such as logistic regression, to identify potential interactions among risk factors while incorporating the hierarchy of interaction among variables. Method: We used EHR-derived ICD-10 codes to identify patients within our health system with ASCVD. VHR was defined by ≥2 major ASCVD events (ACS ≤12 months, history of MI >12 months, ischemic stroke, or symptomatic PAD) or 1 major ASCVD event and ≥2 high-risk conditions (age ≥65, diabetes, hypertension, smoking, heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia, CKD, CHF, persistently elevated LDL-C ≥100 mg/dl, or prior CABG/PCI). Patients not meeting these criteria were classified as NVHR. We randomly assigned patients into a training set and a testing set. Classification and regression tree (CART) modeling was performed on the training set and validated on the testing set. The results were compared with a random forest model. Variables in both models included age, sex, race, ethnicity, and each of the VHR criteria above. The primary outcome for both models was VHR classification. Performance of the two models were compared using area under the curve (AUC). Result: A total of 180,669 ASCVD patients were identified in 2018: 104,123 (58%) were VHR and 76,546 (42%) were NVHR. Mean age and sex were 73.1±11.9 years, 55% male and 70.1±13.4 years, 54% male for the VHR and NVHR groups, respectively. Half the population was randomly selected as the training dataset (n=90,334) and the other half was used as the testing dataset (n=90,335). Both CART and random forest models identified recent ACS, ischemic stroke, hypertension, PAD, and history of MI as the top five predictors of VHR status. Ninety-six percent of patients with recent ACS were classified as VHR. Among patients with no recent ACS, 95% were classified as VHR if they had a stroke and hypertension. Among patients with no ACS or stroke, 89% were classified as VHR if they had PAD. Finally, among patients with no ACS, stroke or PAD, 90% were classified as VHR if they had a history of MI. The misclassification rate of the CART model on the testing set was 4.3%. The AUC for the CART and random forest models was 0.949 and 0.968, respectively. Conclusion: Both ML methods were highly predictive of VHR status among those with ASCVD. Use of this approach affords a simplified means to drive clinical decision making at the point of care.


Blood ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 126 (23) ◽  
pp. 4251-4251
Author(s):  
Efstathios Kastritis ◽  
Evangelos Terpos ◽  
Maria Roussou ◽  
Vassilis Koutoulidis ◽  
Stavroula Giannouli ◽  
...  

Abstract Asymptomatic (smoldering) MM (AMM) is defined by the presence of ≥10% of clonal plasma cells in the bone marrow and/or ≥3 g/dl of serum paraprotein and no CRAB. AMM is associated with a significant risk of development of symptomatic MM requiring therapy (~50% within 5 years from diagnosis). However, there is significant heterogeneity among AMM patients: some patients develop symptoms within a few months from diagnosis, while others have a protracted course or never develop symptomatic disease. In 2014, the IMWG, after considering the results of several studies, modified the defining criteria of symptomatic MM (Rajkumar et al; Lancet Oncol 2014), to include patients who were previously considered as having AMM but with specific features that defined a very high risk for progression to symptomatic disease within 2 years from diagnosis. Thus, patients with more than one focal lesion on whole body MRI (or MRI of spine and pelvis) or serum FLC ratio ≥100 or bone marrow plasma cells ≥60% are considered as symptomatic MM, requiring therapy. The aim of our study was to validate these new criteria in our patients with AMM who had been diagnosed before the publication of the new IMWG criteria. Our analysis included 216 patients with AMM who were diagnosed from 2003 to 2014 in a single center (Alexandra Hospital, University of Athens, Greece). Median age was 63 years (range 33-88) and 58% were females. M-protein was IgG in 69%, IgA in 24%, biclonal in 4% and 2% had light chain only AMM. Median serum monoclonal protein was 1.4 g/dl and 11.5% had M-spike ≥3 g/dl; 54% had low levels of at least one of the uninvolved immunoglobulins. Median BM infiltration was 20% (range <10 to 90%) and 6% had BMPCs ≥ 60%. Abnormal FLC ratio was found in 65.5% of patients; 6% had FLC ratio ≥ 100 (with involved FLC levels ≥1000 mg/L). Among those with available MRI 14% had abnormal findings (at least one focal lesion or diffuse MRI pattern); 8% had more than one focal lesion. Median follow up of the cohort was 4 years and 61 (21%) patients have developed symptomatic disease requiring therapy (PD): 1-, 2- and 5-year rate of PD was 7%, 14%, and 29% respectively. Per the recent IMWG criteria, 13% of patients with a diagnosis of asymptomatic MM would be redefined as symptomatic patients. The median time to PD for these patients was 17 months; it was 44% in the 1st year, 63% in the 2nd year and 82% at 3 years. According to the Mayo risk stratification for AMM (Kyle et al NEJM 2007), 11.5% of patients had ≥10% of plasma cells and ≥3 gr/dl of M-spike and were considered as high risk. The median time to symptomatic progression for these patients was 24 months and the 1-, 2- and 5-year progression rate was 27%, 53% and 68%, respectively. However, among patients with high risk AMM per Mayo risk, 15% fulfilled the new IMWG criteria for symptomatic MM, while in the intermediate risk group 12% would also fulfill the new criteria. Thus, the new criteria identified a very high risk group, even among patients at intermediate risk per the Mayo risk score. Among the patients who developed symptomatic disease, 92% developed anemia, 46% developed lytic bone lesions, 1% extramedullary plasmacytomas, 2% hypercalcemia and 13% renal failure (creatinine ≥2 mg/dl). The presence of the various high risk features was associated with the development of specific symptoms at progression: BMPCs ≥60% was associated with the development of anemia (Hb <10 g/dl) and abnormal MRI with the development of bone disease. In order to evaluate possible changes in the diagnosis of AMM during the past years, we compared the characteristics and outcome of patients who were diagnosed with AMM before (n=93) and after 2010 (n=123): 22% vs 16% were high risk per Mayo stage (p=0.210); 15% vs 13% would be considered as symptomatic with the new IMWG criteria (p=0.615). The 3-year progression rate was 18% and 19% for those diagnosed before vs after 2010, respectively (p=0.522). In conclusion, 13% of patients with the previous diagnosis of AMM would be considered as having symptomatic disease and would start therapy with the new IMWG criteria for the definition of symptomatic MM. About 63% of such patients require therapy within 2 years from diagnosis; thus, justifying the revised definition of symptomatic myeloma to include patients with FLC ratio ≥100, BMPCs ≥60% or >1 focal lesion in MRI. We confirm that the new criteria are more sensitive in the identification of AMM patients who are at very high risk for progression and need immediate treatment. Disclosures Terpos: Novartis: Honoraria; Celgene: Honoraria, Other: travel expenses; Janssen: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Other: travel expenses; Amgen: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding. Dimopoulos:Amgen: Honoraria; Janssen-Cilag: Honoraria; Novartis: Honoraria; Janssen: Honoraria; Celgene: Honoraria; Genesis: Honoraria; Onyx: Honoraria.


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