Geostatistical Analysis of data on AIR Temperature and Plant Phenology From Baden-Württemberg (GERMANY) as a Basis for Regional Scaled Models of Climate Change

2006 ◽  
Vol 120 (1-3) ◽  
pp. 27-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Winfried Schröder ◽  
Gunther Schmidt ◽  
Judith Hasenclever
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Geostatistical Analysis ◽  
Plant Phenology ◽  
Scaled Models

scholarly journals Passage through phenophases by milkvetches introduced into the environments of the Kulunda Steppe

2020 ◽  
Vol 181 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-104
Author(s):  
T. V. Kornievskaya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Plant Phenology ◽  
Total Precipitation ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Dry Steppe ◽  
Average Relative Humidity ◽  
The Impact

Background. Recently, more and more attention has been paid to the study of plant phenology in the context of the global climate change. By now, the question of how climate factors affect the phenophases of plants has not yet been fully investigated. Accurate forecasts for biological responses of plant species to climate change require profound understanding of the impact produced by meteorological factors on plant phenology.Materials and methods. The research was targeted at Astragalus L. spp. introduced into the dry steppe areas of the Kulunda Plain. Meteorological indicators were selected for agrometeorological description of the plant introduction site to assess its hydrothermal conditions. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to identify the level of correlations between the studied parameters.Results. High air temperature shortened the growing season of Astragalus cicer L., but lengthened its flowering and fruiting phases. An increase in relative air humidity shortened the flowering in A. cicer. Meteorological indicators did not significantly affect the duration of the phenophases in A. sulcatus L. For A. onobrychis L., an increase in the average relative humidity reduced the budding phase, while an increase in the average and maximum air temperature and an increase in the amount of precipitation increased the flowering period. A decrease in air temperature and average relative humidity, and an increase in the total precipitation lengthened the duration of fruiting in A. onobrychis. Increased average temperature and humidity reduced its fruiting phase.Conclusion. A. sulcatus is tolerant to the dry steppe environments. The phenophases of A. cicer and A. onobrychis are more responsive to changes in meteorological indicators. In A. onobrychis, the fruiting phase is susceptible to the combined impact of climate factors. The limiting factors for A. cicer are relative humidity, total precipitation and mean temperature during the growing season.

scholarly journals Surface Water Temperature Predictions at a Mid-Latitude Reservoir under Long-Term Climate Change Impacts Using a Deep Neural Network Coupled with a Transfer Learning Approach

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1109
Author(s):  
Nobuaki Kimura ◽  
Kei Ishida ◽  
Daichi Baba
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Transfer Learning ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Surface Water Temperature

Long-term climate change may strongly affect the aquatic environment in mid-latitude water resources. In particular, it can be demonstrated that temporal variations in surface water temperature in a reservoir have strong responses to air temperature. We adopted deep neural networks (DNNs) to understand the long-term relationships between air temperature and surface water temperature, because DNNs can easily deal with nonlinear data, including uncertainties, that are obtained in complicated climate and aquatic systems. In general, DNNs cannot appropriately predict unexperienced data (i.e., out-of-range training data), such as future water temperature. To improve this limitation, our idea is to introduce a transfer learning (TL) approach. The observed data were used to train a DNN-based model. Continuous data (i.e., air temperature) ranging over 150 years to pre-training to climate change, which were obtained from climate models and include a downscaling model, were used to predict past and future surface water temperatures in the reservoir. The results showed that the DNN-based model with the TL approach was able to approximately predict based on the difference between past and future air temperatures. The model suggested that the occurrences in the highest water temperature increased, and the occurrences in the lowest water temperature decreased in the future predictions.

scholarly journals Projection of Hydro-Climatic Extreme Events under Climate Change in Yom and Nan River Basins, Thailand

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 665
Author(s):  
Chanchai Petpongpan ◽  
Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit ◽  
Supattra Visessri ◽  
Duangrudee Kositgittiwong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Floods ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

Due to a continuous increase in global temperature, the climate has been changing without sign of alleviation. An increase in the air temperature has caused changes in the hydrologic cycle, which have been followed by several emergencies of natural extreme events around the world. Thailand is one of the countries that has incurred a huge loss in assets and lives from the extreme flood and drought events, especially in the northern part. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the hydrological regime in the Yom and Nan River basins, affected by climate change as well as the possibility of extreme floods and droughts. The hydrological processes of the study areas were generated via the physically-based hydrological model, namely the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The projected climate conditions were dependent on the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 between 2021 and 2095. Results show that the average air temperature, annual rainfall, and annual runoff will be significantly increased in the intermediate future (2046–2070) onwards, especially under RCP 8.5. According to the Flow Duration Curve and return period of peak discharge, there are fluctuating trends in the occurrence of extreme floods and drought events under RCP 2.6 from the future (2021–2045) to the far future (2071–2095). However, under RCP 8.5, the extreme flood and drought events seem to be more severe. The probability of extreme flood remains constant from the reference period to the near future, then rises dramatically in the intermediate and the far future. The intensity of extreme droughts will be increased in the near future and decreased in the intermediate future due to high annual rainfall, then tending to have an upward trend in the far future.

scholarly journals Heatwaves and Summer Urban Heat Islands: A Daily Cycle Approach to Unveil the Urban Thermal Signal Changes in Lisbon, Portugal

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Oliveira ◽  
António Lopes ◽  
Ezequiel Correia ◽  
Samuel Niza ◽  
Amílcar Soares
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Urban Heat Islands ◽  
Daily Cycle ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Thermal Signal ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Local Climate Change ◽  
Urban Heat

Lisbon is a European Mediterranean city, greatly exposed to heatwaves (HW), according to recent trends and climate change prospects. Considering the Atlantic influence, air temperature observations from Lisbon’s mesoscale network are used to investigate the interactions between background weather and the urban thermal signal (UTS) in summer. Days are classified according to the prevailing regional wind direction, and hourly UTS is compared between HW and non-HW conditions. Northern-wind days predominate, revealing greater maximum air temperatures (up to 40 °C) and greater thermal amplitudes (approximately 10 °C), and account for 37 out of 49 HW days; southern-wind days have milder temperatures, and no HWs occur. Results show that the wind direction groups are significantly different. While southern-wind days have minor UTS variations, northern-wind days have a consistent UTS daily cycle: a diurnal urban cooling island (UCI) (often lower than –1.0 °C), a late afternoon peak urban heat island (UHI) (occasionally surpassing 4.0 °C), and a stable nocturnal UHI (1.5 °C median intensity). UHI/UCI intensities are not significantly different between HW and non-HW conditions, although the synoptic influence is noted. Results indicate that, in Lisbon, the UHI intensity does not increase during HW events, although it is significantly affected by wind. As such, local climate change adaptation strategies must be based on scenarios that account for the synergies between potential changes in regional air temperature and wind.

Investigating the species-specific association between anuran calling phenology and air temperature

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samantha Wong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Interspecific Variation ◽  
Northern Ontario ◽  
Anuran Species ◽  
Calling Behaviour ◽  
Survival And Development ◽  
Species Specific

Climate change has been associated in phenological shifts for a variety of taxa. Amphibians, specifically the order Anura (frogs and toads), are considered particularly vulnerable due to their sensitivity to anthropogenic and environmental change. Previous research has documented shifts in the timing of anuran breeding that can be attributed, in part, to climate change, with potential implications for reproduction, survival, and development. This study aims to investigate how air temperature is associated with anuran calling phenology. I will examine the temporal trends in spring and summer air temperature in a lake in northern Ontario, Canada. and quantify seasonal patterns of calling anuran species using acoustic monitoring over a four-month period. I predict that there will be interspecific variation in peak calling associated with air temperature. Additionally, I expect to find asymmetrical association between air temperature and anuran species’ calling behaviour – wherein prolonged breeding species will have a larger optimal temperature range for calling compared to explosive breeding species. The findings of this research will aid in future conservation and provide insight for management strategies of anurans in Canada in response to anticipated climate warming.

scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Soil Erosion in the Xihe River Basin, China

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1085 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanshan Guo ◽  
Zhengru Zhu ◽  
Leting Lyu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Validation Period ◽  
Total Change ◽  
Calibration Period

Climate change and human activities are the major factors affecting runoff and sediment load. We analyzed the inter-annual variation trend of the average rainfall, air temperature, runoff and sediment load in the Xihe River Basin from 1969–2015. Pettitt’s test and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were used to detect sudden change in hydro-meteorological variables and simulate the basin hydrological cycle, respectively. According to the simulation results, we explored spatial distribution of soil erosion in the watershed by utilizing ArcGIS10.0, analyzed the average erosion modulus by different type of land use, and quantified the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff and sediment load in changes. The results showed that: (1) From 1969–2015, both rainfall and air temperature increased, and air temperature increased significantly (p < 0.01) at 0.326 °C/10 a (annual). Runoff and sediment load decreased, and sediment load decreased significantly (p < 0.01) at 1.63 × 105 t/10 a. In 1988, air temperature experienced a sudden increase and sediment load decreased. (2) For runoff, R2 and Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (Ens) were 0.92 and 0.91 during the calibration period and 0.90 and 0.87 during the validation period, for sediment load, R2 and Ens were 0.60 and 0.55 during the calibration period and 0.70 and 0.69 during the validation period, meeting the model’s applicability requirements. (3) Soil erosion was worse in the upper basin than other regions, and highest in cultivated land. Climate change exacerbates runoff and sediment load with overall contribution to the total change of −26.54% and −8.8%, respectively. Human activities decreased runoff and sediment load with overall contribution to the total change of 126.54% and 108.8% respectively. Runoff and sediment load change in the Xihe River Basin are largely caused by human activities.

scholarly journals Current and future occurrences of health-relevant, compound heat and ozone pollution events in six European ozone-temperature regions 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sally Jahn ◽  
Elke Hertig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ozone Pollution ◽  
Ground Level Ozone ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Elevated Ozone

&lt;p&gt;Air pollution and heat events present two major health risks, both already independently posing a significant threat to human health and life. High levels of ground-level ozone (O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;) and air temperature often coincide due to the underlying physical relationships between both variables. The most severe health outcome is in general associated with the co-occurrence of both hazards (e.g. Hertig et al. 2020), since concurrent elevated levels of temperature and ozone concentrations represent a twofold exposure and can lead to a risk beyond the sum of the individual effects. Consequently, in the current contribution, a compound approach considering both hazards simultaneously as so-called ozone-temperature (o-t-)events is chosen by jointly analyzing elevated ground-level ozone concentrations and air temperature levels in Europe.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Previous studies already point to the fact that the relationship of underlying synoptic and meteorological drivers with one or both of these health stressors as well as the correlation between both variables vary with the location of sites and seasons (e.g. Otero et al. 2016; Jahn, Hertig 2020). Therefore, a hierarchical clustering analysis is applied to objectively divide the study domain in regions of homogeneous, similar ground-level ozone and temperature characteristics (o-t-regions). Statistical models to assess the synoptic and large-scale meteorological mechanisms which represent main drivers of concurrent o-t-events are developed for each identified o-t-region.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Compound elevated ozone concentration and air temperature events are expected to become more frequent due to climate change in many parts of Europe (e.g. Jahn, Hertig 2020; Hertig 2020). Statistical projections of potential frequency shifts of compound o-t-events until the end of the twenty-first century are assessed using the output of Earth System Models (ESMs) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Hertig, E. (2020) Health-relevant ground-level ozone and temperature events under future climate change using the example of Bavaria, Southern Germany. Air Qual. Atmos. Health. doi: 10.1007/s11869-020-00811-z&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Hertig, E., Russo, A., Trigo, R. (2020) Heat and ozone pollution waves in Central and South Europe- characteristics, weather types, and association with mortality. Atmosphere. doi: 10.3390/atmos11121271&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Jahn, S., Hertig, E. (2020) Modeling and projecting health&amp;#8208;relevant combined ozone and temperature events in present and future Central European climate. Air Qual. Atmos. Health. doi: 10.1007/s11869&amp;#8208;020&amp;#8208;009610&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Otero N., Sillmann J., Schnell J.L., Rust H.W., Butler T. (2016) Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe. Environ Res Lett. doi: 10.1088/ 1748-9326/11/2/024005&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Effects of climate changes on phenological periods of apple, cherry and wheat in TurkeyTürkiye’de iklim değişikliğinin elma, kiraz ve buğdayın fenolojik dönemlerine etkileri

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1036 ◽  
Author(s):  
Necla Türkoğlu ◽  
Serhat Şensoy ◽  
Olgu Aydın
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Wheat Plant ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Phenological Data ◽  
The World ◽  
Negative Relationships

It is known that the increase in air temperature from 1980 to present has dramatically changed the phenological periods of the plants in a large part of the world. In this study, the relationships between phenological periods of wheat plant, apple and cherry trees planted large areas in Turkey and climate change were investigated. In this study, the climate and phenological data for 1971-2012 period belonging to the General Directorate of Meteorology were used. The correlation coefficients between temperature and phenological data were calculated, and their trends were examined using Mann-Kendall trend analysis. In Turkey, positive temperature anomalies have been observed since 1994 until present days. Negative relationships were found between phenological periods of apple, cherry and wheat and the average temperatures of February-May period when the plants grow faster. This situation shows that the plants shift their phenological periods to the earlier times in response to the increasing temperatures. The trend calculated for harvest times of apple, cherry, and wheat are -25, -22, -40 days/100 years respectively. It was calculated that an increase of 1.0ºC in the temperatures of the February-May period will shift the harvest times of apple, cheery and wheat by 5, 4 and 8 days earlier respectively. Özet1980’lerden günümüze hava sıcaklıklarındaki artış, Dünya’nın büyük bir bölümünde bitkilerin fenolojik dönemlerini önemli ölçüde değiştirmiştir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de geniş alanlar kaplayan buğday, elma ve kiraz bitkilerinin fenolojik dönemleri ile iklim değişikliği arasındaki ilişkiler araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü’ne ait 1971-2012 döneminin iklim ve fenolojik verileri kullanılmıştır. Sıcaklık ile fenolojik veriler arasındaki korelasyon katsayıları hesaplanmış ve Mann- Kendall trend analizi ile eğilimlerine bakılmıştır. Türkiye’de 1994 yılından bu yana pozitif sıcaklık anomalileri bulunmuştur. Elma, kiraz ve buğdayın fenolojik dönemleri ile bitki gelişiminin fazla olduğu şubat-mayıs ortalama sıcaklıkları arasında negatif ilişki saptanmıştır. Bu durum bitkilerin artan sıcaklıklara tepki olarak fenolojik dönemlerini erkene kaydırdıklarını göstermektedir. Elma, kiraz ve buğdayın hasat tarihleri için hesaplanan trend sırasıyla-25, -22, -40 gün/100 yıl şeklindedir. Şubat-mayıs arası sıcaklıklarda 1.0°C’lik artışın anılan bitkilerin hasat tarihlerini sırasıyla 5, 4 ve 8 gün erkene kaydıracağı hesaplanmıştır.

scholarly journals Plant Phenology and Its Anthropogenic and Natural Influencing Factors in Densely Populated Areas During the Economic Transition Period of China

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peijun Ju ◽  
Wenchao Yan ◽  
Jianliang Liu ◽  
Xinwei Liu ◽  
Liangfeng Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Transition ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Plant Phenology ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Urban Management ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
The Impact

As a sensitive, observable, and comprehensive indicator of climate change, plant phenology has become a vital topic of global change. Studies about plant phenology and its responses to climate change in natural ecosystems have drawn attention to the effects of human activities on phenology in/around urban regions. The key factors and mechanisms of phenological and human factors in the process of urbanization are still unclear. In this study, we analyzed variations in xylophyta phenology in densely populated cities during the fast urbanization period of China (from 1963 to 1988). We assessed the length of the growing season affected by the temperature and precipitation. Temperature increased the length of the growing season in most regions, while precipitation had the opposite effect. Moreover, the plant-growing season is more sensitive to preseason climate factors than to annual average climate factors. The increased population reduced the length of the growing season, while the growing GDP increased the length of the growing season in most regions (8 out of 13). By analyzing the impact of the industry ratio, we found that the correlation between the urban management of emerging cities (e.g., Chongqing, Zhejiang, and Guizhou) and the growing season is more significant, and the impact is substantial. In contrast, urban management in most areas with vigorously developed heavy industry (e.g., Heilongjiang, Liaoning, and Beijing) has a weak and insignificant effect on plant phenology. These results indicate that different urban development patterns can influence urban plant phenology. Our results provide some support and new thoughts for future research on urban plant phenology.

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