scholarly journals Effects of climate changes on phenological periods of apple, cherry and wheat in TurkeyTürkiye’de iklim değişikliğinin elma, kiraz ve buğdayın fenolojik dönemlerine etkileri

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1036 ◽  
Author(s):  
Necla Türkoğlu ◽  
Serhat Şensoy ◽  
Olgu Aydın
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Wheat Plant ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Phenological Data ◽  
The World ◽  
Negative Relationships

It is known that the increase in air temperature from 1980 to present has dramatically changed the phenological periods of the plants in a large part of the world. In this study, the relationships between phenological periods of wheat plant, apple and cherry trees planted large areas in Turkey and climate change were investigated. In this study, the climate and phenological data for 1971-2012 period belonging to the General Directorate of Meteorology were used. The correlation coefficients between temperature and phenological data were calculated, and their trends were examined using Mann-Kendall trend analysis. In Turkey, positive temperature anomalies have been observed since 1994 until present days. Negative relationships were found between phenological periods of apple, cherry and wheat and the average temperatures of February-May period when the plants grow faster. This situation shows that the plants shift their phenological periods to the earlier times in response to the increasing temperatures. The trend calculated for harvest times of apple, cherry, and wheat are -25, -22, -40 days/100 years respectively. It was calculated that an increase of 1.0ºC in the temperatures of the February-May period will shift the harvest times of apple, cheery and wheat by 5, 4 and 8 days earlier respectively. Özet1980’lerden günümüze hava sıcaklıklarındaki artış, Dünya’nın büyük bir bölümünde bitkilerin fenolojik dönemlerini önemli ölçüde değiştirmiştir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de geniş alanlar kaplayan buğday, elma ve kiraz bitkilerinin fenolojik dönemleri ile iklim değişikliği arasındaki ilişkiler araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü’ne ait 1971-2012 döneminin iklim ve fenolojik verileri kullanılmıştır. Sıcaklık ile fenolojik veriler arasındaki korelasyon katsayıları hesaplanmış ve Mann- Kendall trend analizi ile eğilimlerine bakılmıştır. Türkiye’de 1994 yılından bu yana pozitif sıcaklık anomalileri bulunmuştur. Elma, kiraz ve buğdayın fenolojik dönemleri ile bitki gelişiminin fazla olduğu şubat-mayıs ortalama sıcaklıkları arasında negatif ilişki saptanmıştır. Bu durum bitkilerin artan sıcaklıklara tepki olarak fenolojik dönemlerini erkene kaydırdıklarını göstermektedir. Elma, kiraz ve buğdayın hasat tarihleri için hesaplanan trend sırasıyla-25, -22, -40 gün/100 yıl şeklindedir. Şubat-mayıs arası sıcaklıklarda 1.0°C’lik artışın anılan bitkilerin hasat tarihlerini sırasıyla 5, 4 ve 8 gün erkene kaydıracağı hesaplanmıştır.

scholarly journals Reconstruction of late spring phenophases in Poland and their response to climate change, 1951–2014

2016 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bartosz Czernecki ◽  
Katarzyna Jabłońska
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Late Spring ◽  
Horse Chestnut ◽  
Phenological Data ◽  
Multiple Regression Modeling ◽  
Phenological Monitoring

Phenology is primarily seen as an indicator of the impacts of climate change. The strongest biological signal of climatic change is revealed by phenological data from the period after 1990. Unfortunately, the Polish nationwide network of phenological monitoring was terminated in 1992, and was only reactivated in 2005. Here, we attempt to reconstruct late spring phenophases of flowering of <em>Syringa vulgaris</em> L. and <em>Aesculus hippocastanum</em> L. across several sites in Poland from 1951 to 2014 using the GIS-based approach (if observations from neighboring stations were available) and multiple regression modeling with stepwise screening and bootstrap resampling. It was found that the air temperature and its indices explain over 60% of the variance, giving an accuracy of 3.0–3.4 days (mean absolute error) and correlation coefficients of 0.83 and 0.78 for lilac and horse chestnut, respectively. Altogether, both plant species showed a statistically significant advancement in the onset of flowering with an average rate of 1.7 days per decade. We also found that the final trend is the result of rapid acceleration of the increase in air temperature after the 1990s, while most of the trends for late spring were ambiguous before that period.

scholarly journals Comparing climate change indices between a northern (arid) and a southern (humid) basin in Mexico during the last decades

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 231-237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martín José Montero-Martínez ◽  
Julio Sergio Santana-Sepúlveda ◽  
Naydú Isabel Pérez-Ortiz ◽  
Óscar Pita-Díaz ◽  
Salvador Castillo-Liñan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Arid Region ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Previous Analysis ◽  
Environmental Issues ◽  
The Other ◽  
The World ◽  
Humid Area ◽  
Different Parts

Abstract. It is a matter of current study to determine potential climate changes in different parts of the world, especially in regions like a basin which has the potential to affect socioeconomic and environmental issues in a defined area. This study provides a comparison between several climate change indices trends of two very different basins in Mexico, one located in the northern arid region (the Conchos River basin) and the other in the southern humid area (the Usumacinta River basin). First, quality control, homogenization, and completion of the missing data were applied before calculating the climate change indices and their respective trends for the combined period 1961–1994. A clear warming signal was found for the two basins in addition to an increment in the DTR, in agreement with other studies in Mexico. Also, the Conchos River basin was found to be more humid and the Usumacinta River basin drier, in accordance to a supposed seesaw behavior indicated in previous analysis.

scholarly journals Analysis of climate change in Dnipropetrovsk Region

2017 ◽  
pp. 43-51
Author(s):  
V. V. Hrynchak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Absolute Temperature ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Weather Observations ◽  
Average Annual Temperature

The decision about writing this article was made after familiarization with the "Brief Climatic Essay of Dnepropetrovsk City (prepared based on observations of 1886 – 1937)" written by the Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Weather Department of the Hydrometeorological Service A. N. Mikhailov. The guide has a very interesting fate: in 1943 it was taken by the Nazis from Dnipropetrovsk and in 1948 it returned from Berlin back to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological and Environmental Directorate of the USSR, as evidenced by a respective entry on the Essay's second page. Having these invaluable materials and data of long-term weather observations in Dnipro city we decided to analyze climate changes in Dnipropetrovsk region. The article presents two 50-year periods, 1886-1937 and 1961-2015, as examples. Series of observations have a uniform and representative character because they were conducted using the same methodology and results processing. We compared two main characteristics of climate: air temperature and precipitation. The article describes changes of average annual temperature values and absolute temperature values. It specifies the shift of seasons' dates and change of seasons' duration. We studied the changes of annual precipitation and peculiarities of their seasonable distribution. Apart from that peculiarities of monthly rainfall fluctuations and their heterogeneity were specified. Since Dnipro city is located in the center of the region the identified tendencies mainly reflect changes of climatic conditions within the entire Dnipropetrovsk region.

scholarly journals Probability Assessment of Slope Instability in Seasonally Cold Regions under Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yulong Zhu ◽  
Tatsuya Ishikawa ◽  
Tomohito J. Yamada ◽  
Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Slope Stability ◽  
Water Content ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Cold Regions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Assessment Approach

Abstract This paper proposes an effective approach for evaluating the influences of climate change on slope stability in seasonally cold regions. Firstly, to semi-quantitatively assess the effects of climate changes on the uncertainty of climate factors, this study analyzes the trend of the two main climate factors (precipitation and air temperature) by the regression analysis using the meteorological monitoring data of the past 120 years in different scales (e.g., world, country (Japan), and city (Sapporo)), and the meteorological simulation data obtained by downscaling the outputs of three different regional atmospheric models (RAMs) with lateral boundary conditions from three different general circulation models (GCMs). Next, to discuss the effects of different climate factors (air temperature, precipitation, etc.) and to determine the key climate factors on the slope instability, an assessment approach for evaluating the effects of climate changes on slope instability is proposed through the water content simulation and slope stability analysis using a 2-dimensional (2D) finite element method (FEM) homogeneous conceptual slope model with considering freeze-thaw action. Finally, to check the effectiveness of the above assessment approach, assessment of instability of an actual highway embankment slope with the local layer geometry is done by applying the past and predicted future climate data. The results indicate that affected by global warming, the air temperature rise in some cold cities is more serious. The predicted future weather will affect the shape of the normal density curve (NDC) of the distribution of slope failures in one year. The climate changes (especially the increase in precipitation) in the future will increase the infiltration during the Spring season. It will lengthen the time that the highway slope is in an unstable state due to high volumetric water content, thereby enhancing the instability of the slopes and threatening more slopes in the future.

scholarly journals Climate Change and Fruit-Picking Tourism: Impact and Adaptation

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Liu ◽  
Fan Chen ◽  
Quansheng Ge ◽  
Yunyun Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Rural Tourism ◽  
Dynamic Changes ◽  
Tourism Impact ◽  
Phenological Data ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Fruit Maturity ◽  
Tourism Activity ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this work is to present phenology as a valid indicator and methodology for monitoring and assessing the impact of climate change on plant-based tourist activities. Fruit-picking has become a popular rural tourism activity worldwide. However, fruit maturity dates (FMD) have been affected by climate change (CC), which has in turn profoundly affected fruit-picking tourism activities (FPTA). In this paper, phenological data on the FMD for 45 types of plants in 1980–2012, dates for more than 200 fruit-picking festivals, and data on monthly average air temperature in 1980–2013 were used to assess the impact of CC on FPTA by wavelet and correlation analyses. The findings indicated that the study area had been significantly affected by CC. Prevailing temperatures at one or three months prior have a decisive influence on FMD. Among the 11 plants directly related to FPTA, the FMD of four were significantly advanced, while 6-7 were significantly delayed owning to increased temperature. Of the 11 FPTA, only two had realized the impact of CC and had adjusted festival opening dates based on dynamic changes. However, a considerable number of festival activities remained fixed or scheduled on the weekends.

scholarly journals Organizing the Challenges Faced by Municipalities while Formulating Climate Change Adaptation Plans

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asako Iwami ◽  
Takanori Matsui ◽  
Michinori Kimura ◽  
Kenshi Baba ◽  
Mitsuru Tanaka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Information Platform ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
The World ◽  
Municipal Level ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

As the effects of climate change increase in severity, organizations across the world are attempting to measures to mitigate these effects. In accordance with the Paris Agreement of November 2015, wherein participating nations agreed to restrict the increase in global temperature below 2 °C, Japan has formulated guidelines on creating adaptation plans that can be implemented by local governments. A Climate Change Adaptive Information Platform was also launched to promote understanding and cooperation by sharing information on climate risks. However, the literature on this topic lacks information related to the organization of requirements and challenges faced by municipal administrative officials that formulate adaptation plans. To address these issues, we examined the four municipal forums hosted at Hosei University to encourage administrative needs for new technological ideas in areas such as climate modeling and impact assessment. We used text mining on the transcripts of the various workshops conducted in these forums and attempted to understand the changes in discussions and to extract issues related to the formulation process. The results showed that various topics, such as creating adaptation promotion systems, assessing the impacts of climate change, formulating adaptation plans, communicating with related organizations and stakeholders, developing human resources, and capacity building, were discussed, and a need for information, procedures, and assistance was identified for the formulation of feasible adaptation plans. This study is expected to provide a useful reference to stakeholders involved in framing adaptation plans to mitigate the effects of climate changes, particularly at the municipal level.

Trend Analysis and ARIMA Modeling to Assess Meteorological and Surface Parameters In Ranchi, India During Pre-Monsoon Months

GIS Business ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-87
Author(s):  
Poulomi Chakravarty ◽  
Manoj Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Surface Parameters

The assessment of the human-induced climate change on a global level can be carried out only after the study of local and regional climate change patterns. This study was an attempt to establish a link between regional climate and the surface parameters. The study was carried out for Ranchi, India to assess the changes in climatic pattern over the years (1901-2016) and applied Mann-Kendall Trend analysis test. The pre-monsoon period was chosen due to high intensity and number of thunderstorms taking place in the study area. Maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), rainfall (P) &diurnal temperature range (DTR) for the months (March, April & May) were studied, and a significant negative trend in Tmax and DTR was observed. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was applied to fit the datasets and predict 5 values for the meteorological parameters, and the model depicted positive temperature trends and negative rainfall and DTR trends in the future. Land surface process parameters such as sensible heat flux, momentum flux, frictional velocity, shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, and net radiation for Ranchi were also fit into the ARIMA model, and the fitness of the model and predictions were determined.

ASSESSMENT OF FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CASPIAN SEA LEVEL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE FUTURE UNTIL 2050

2021 ◽  
Vol 100 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-77
Author(s):  
N.I. Ivkina ◽  
◽  
A.V. Galayeva ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Water Surface ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
The Future

The article considers the possible fluctuation of the Caspian Sea level in the future until 2050, taking into an account the climate changes. For this purpose, possible changes in the river inflow to the sea and meteorological parameters (precipitation, air temperature and evaporation from the water surface) were predicted. Changes in the meteorological parameters were estimated according to two climate scenarios RCP4. 5 and RCP8.5.

Trend Analysis of Climate Change in Chittagong Station in Bangladesh

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 ◽  
pp. 42-53
Author(s):  
Mallika Roy ◽  
Bablo Biswas ◽  
Sanjib Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Linear Relationship ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
P Value ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Agriculture Industry ◽  
Average Rainfall

The amount of rainfall received over an area is an important factor in assessing availability of water to meet various demands for agriculture, industry, irrigation, generation of hydroelectricity and other human activities. Over the study period of recent 30 years, trend values of monsoon average rainfall in Chittagong have increased. This paper has measured the correlation coefficients between rainfall and time for Chittagong, where correlation coefficient for Chittagong is positive. In order to check the strength of linear relationship between rainfall and time, P-value has been measured. Due to various factors of Chittagong region of Bangladesh, there is a growing need to study the rainfall, temperature and humidity pattern. This study was checked annual average rainfall of 30 years, temperature of 60 years and humidity of 28 years for this region. It is hoped that this research may be of help to the concerned organizations and experts working on increasing climate variation in Chittagong.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document